Showing posts with label Commercial vehicles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Commercial vehicles. Show all posts

10.29.2013

Understanding the Chinese Commercial Vehicle Market

China Car Times, October 28, 2013





Respected China auto analyst Bill Russo gives his five part opinion and outlook on the Chinese commercial vehicle market in this must read report. The Chinese CV world is the polar opposite to the automotive world, consumers base their purchases on best bang for the dollar, nearly all purchases are Chinese brands and foreign brands are the 1% rather than 50+ percent as in the auto industry.

One opening point is extremely note worthy:
Global manufacturers will increasingly be pushed into the luxury “niche”, unless they adjust their business model and develop low-price, as opposed to low-cost products, which are not just “good enough”, but have the right features, durability, more rapid innovation, and lower price to be sold globally. The Chinese market is already highly fragmented, and the pathway to entry for foreign players is not obvious. However, we believe that several market entry options exist as previously noted. MAN’s JV with Sinotruk may be able to crack open the mid-range market in which local OEMs are dominant.

3.31.2013

Competing in the China Truck Market - Winning in China's Mid-Market

April 1, 2013

by Bill Russo

This is the fifth installment in a series on the China Commercial Vehicles market.  


Click here to read the first installment.


Click here to read the second installment.


Click here to read the third installment.


Click here to read the fourth installment.

Most multi-national companies that aspire to be global leaders have no choice but to find a way to win in the Chinese mid-market. 


The common strategies employed by MNCs are to:

  1. Ignore the risk and avoid competing in China’s mid-market altogether.
  2. Offer global products and wait until China catches up to more upscale demand, which works only for a limited number of sectors.
  3. Pursue a two-tier strategy with a core brand sold along with a lower-priced “good enough” brand considered. MAN is following this approach since early 2011 and Daimler trucks are considering it with their partner Foton.


Multinationals simply cannot afford to cede this mid-market to local competitors.  Instead, they must set about organizing themselves to face the emerging Chinese competitors on their own terms – with products that meet Chinese
needs, developed at Chinese cost, and which can then be taken out of China to other markets around the world. They must stop thinking about what it is they can bring to China, and instead start focusing on what China’s mid-market can offer them – what culture and structures they must adopt that will allow them to innovate at a lower cost and to deliver the goods and services that will drive the next round of global growth.

A good example can be found in the construction equipment industry. Caterpillar, which in the 1990s focused on government relationships and selling traditional, high end products to China, shifted focus after the entry of Japanese and Korean competitors in the mid-market segments, and being squeezed by lower-end local players. In the late 2000’s, Caterpillar acquired Shandong Engineering Machinery and formed local R&D centers to expand into lower end market, while optimizing its cost base to compete. Clearly, Caterpillar reasoned, there was a market segment that was here to stay and CAT’s traditional product and business model positioning wasn’t going to be adequate.

In the medical equipment sector, another good example of a mid-market innovation was General Electric’s development of ultrasound machines. From 1990 to 2000, GE served the Chinese ultrasound market with machines developed in the US and Japan, priced at $100K and upwards. While these products were successful with a narrow set of hospitals, the price point was above the affordability threshold of many. In 2002, GE’s local team in China leveraged GE global resources to develop a cheaper, portable machine, priced at $30-40K. And then in 2007, GE’s local, China organization launched a dramatically cheaper model, priced at only $15K. The result of these step-wise innovations in somewhat functionality but at dramatically lower price points, were products that saw rapidly increasing sales in China from $4M in 2002 to $278M in 2008, and at the same time, these mid-market products found new markets abroad. As it turned out, there had been latent demand for lower-priced ultrasound machines even in the world’s most developed markets, but neither GE nor its competitors had realized this or pursued this demand with relevant products.

Mid-market products are not simply lower-cost variants to global, high end products that can be delivered at lower price points.  Foreign and Chinese companies will bring very different mindsets into the battle for the middle market.

Although the competitive strategy to address the middle markets may be different, the path for both Chinese and foreign companies is the same: access the middle market growth opportunity to both extend brands and product reach with the magnitude of impact that can change the global competitive landscape.    
Ultimately, mid-market capabilities rooted in China can be leveraged to tap global markets with similar demand patterns.  

While the size and importance of the Chinese mid-market opportunity may be understood, it is often unclear how Multinationals can participate in the market.  The Chinese market is already highly fragmented, and the pathway to entry for foreign players is not obvious.  However, we believe that several market entry options exist.  It is important to understand that competing in Chinas rapidly expanding and highly competitive mid-market will require an integrated set of capabilities.

For example, MAN SE (Maschinenfabrik Augsburg-Nürnberg), in a joint venture with China’s Sinotruk, has maintained a two-tiered strategy since early 2011.  Vehicles for the Chinese market are sold under the Shandeka brand name, and those for other emerging markets across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are sold as Sitrak.  This strategy allows MAN to sell two different vehicles at two different price points to two different markets, with separate business models.

In China’s passenger vehicle market, similar two-tiered strategies are increasingly adopted by international OEMs in the form of Joint Venture local brand development.  Starting with the Everus brand launch by Guangzhou Honda in 2010, Shanghai GM Wuling, Dongfeng Nissan, and Dongfeng Honda have each launched their respective JV local brands.  The vehicles carrying those brands are often originally branded vehicles at the end of their life cycle, which are rebranded after certain local adaptations are made to meet the taste of the Chinese consumer.  Such an approach is intended to generate higher volume through upgraded old generation vehicles without diluting the brand image of international players.

The two-tiered strategy, with separate but parallel business models, can be effective:  it enables companies to compete in mid-markets where they otherwise could not.  However, it is not a trivial task for many global producers of industrial equipment to build the capabilities needed to sell effectively to mid-market customers in China.  They must invest in Chinese (or equivalent) R&D and product development, simultaneously integrating their new operations with their old and managing intellectual property challenges. They also lack the home advantages that Chinese mid-market innovators possess: the knowledge of their market niche, access to low-cost production resources, and a deep understanding of the regulatory and operational environment.  Joint ventures such as MAN’s can help, but they also add complexity.

A small number of global companies are focusing on developing an integrated capabilities system that approaches Chinese mid-market customers and Western higher-end customers in an integrated way.  This requires a relentless focus on improving operations and product development together with regional integration.  For example, a company might migrate more parts of its value chain and innovation practices to China and other lower-cost countries — with the intent not of saving labor costs, but of gaining distinctive production and sourcing capabilities that can be put in place around the world. These new efforts can specifically target the country’s mid-market and use local engineers and research staff accustomed to more frugal ways of thinking.  It may not be obvious at first how particular product lines will be affected, but the new efforts can act as springboards for the kinds of ventures that lead to capabilities that can be leveraged around the world[1].







[1] Edward Tse, John Jullens and Bill Russo, “China’s Mid Market Innovators”, Strategy & Business, Summer 2012, Issue 67.








2.04.2013

Competing in the China Truck Market - Policy & Regulatory Outlook

February 5, 2013

by Bill Russo


This is the third installment in a series on the China Commercial Vehicles market.  

Click here to read the first installment.

Click here to read the second installment.


Government policy plays leading role in driving the development and eventual consolidation of China’s auto industry. According to the Plan on Adjusting and Revitalizing the Auto Industry promulgated in the early of 2009, “capable Chinese players are encouraged to grow stronger by M&A and restructure”. 

The plan outlines an intention to consolidate the industry into 2 distinct “tiers”:  the Tier 1 group consisting of companies with an annual capacity of 2 million units that are encouraged to acquire smaller automotive companies throughout China, whereas Tier 2 consists of companies with an annual capacity of 1 million units are encouraged to drive regional consolidation. 

The plan even names four tier 1 companies as well as four tier 2 companies:

  • TIER 1: 
    • Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corp (SAIC)
    • First Auto Works (FAW) Group
    • Dongfeng Motors (DFM)
    • Chang’An Automotive

  • TIER 2
    • Beijing Automotive Industrial Corp (BAIC)
    • Guangzhou Automotive Industrial Group (GAIG)
    • Chery Automobile
    • China National Heavy Duty Truck Corp (CNHTC)


The top 3 HDT manufacturers including FAW, DFM and CNHTC are among the Tier 1 and 2 OEM groups named within this consolidation plan, and are therefore likely to receive extra funding and policy support from the central government when acquiring smaller companies.

Responding to the government policy indication, leading auto groups are actively establishing their growth strategies and seeking to build scale advantage.  Among them FAW, DFM, BAIC, SAIC, and CNHTC are more likely to be acquirers in industry consolidation among the HDT/MDT players.


The early stages of industry consolidation have already begun.  Starting from its acquisition of Nanjing Auto Group in 2007, SAIC has expanded their production bases from Shanghai to Yizheng and Nanjing in Jiangsu province.  FAW is negotiating with Brilliance on business restructuring and acquisition.  If the deal is done, FAW will grow larger than SAIC in terms of scale.  After acquiring Changhe and Hafei, the Chang’An Automotive group possesses nine manufacturing bases across the country.  The company also stated their plans to merge two to three domestic vehicle companies and one parts company within their next 5-year plan.

To defend themselves and avoid being acquired, smaller commercial vehicle companies like JAC, Beiben and others are actively expanding their business coverage, developing special sectors, and establishing product technology cooperation.

For global truck manufacturers, the consolidation of the China auto industry implies that a more structured and disciplined market will eventually emerge which will increase the efficiency, scale and R&D capabilities of the remaining competitors.  Leading Chinese OEMs will seek to expand their ownership of assets and capabilities needed to compete in an increasingly global business. 


Chinese OEMs must therefore move up the value chain to deliver products with competitive technology to address a growing demand generated for world-class quality trucks.  To achieve this, they will undoubtedly allocate larger investments into product development, enabling better responsiveness to the market.  Further, the industry will require better IP protection and enforcement to facilitate technology sharing with international players.


Though industry consolidation will likely be a central theme in the next decade, there are several other policy and regulatory trends that pose challenges to the global truck manufacturers in China.  

First, the China government is closing the gate for international newcomers by raising the entry barrier for new project approval.  Automotive industry policy makers have strong concerns with overcapacity risks in the China auto industry.  These concerns are having an impact on their willingness to consider new vehicle manufacturing projects including HDT.  Therefore, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released the Admission Management Rule for Commercial Vehicle Enterprises and Products, which took effect from January 1st, 2011, requiring all truck manufacturers to strictly follow current investment and capacity utilization requirements. Despite this, other very challenging policy objectives must also be met, including the upgrading of the technology used in the local brands, new energy vehicle development and export promotion.  Global manufacturers who are willing to share critical technology and capabilities with their Chinese partner may be able to successfully receive approval for their new manufacturing project in China.


Second, although Chinese policy makers stress their serious attention to the subject, Intellectual Property (IP) protection is an area of great uncertainty for global manufacturers.  Global vehicle manufacturers are pushed to transfer their leading technologies in a market where the legislation and law enforcement for IP rights violations is far from sufficient.  Many IP related lawsuits claimed by international manufacturers in China have not been met with satisfactory results, such as BMW’s compliant for Hubei Shuanghuan’s styling imitation of X5, Fiat’s claim for Great Wall’s copy of Panda, as well as GM’s claim for Chery’s copy of the Chevrolet Spark.  Such issues also extend into areas of technology and other transfer of capabilities.  Learning from past experiences, many international manufacturers have taken both technical and commercial measures to protect their IP when cooperating with Chinese partners.  For instance, a modular sourcing strategy from Tier 1 suppliers can be employed (instead of sourcing individual component through the Joint Venture) has become a common practice to protect IPR of the multinational partner.

Third, global truck manufacturers will increasingly face China unique standards, which are influenced by the local players.  Global truck manufacturers who have made significant commitments to the market often feel like a “guest in their own house” when doing business in China.  For instance, the delay of Euro 4 gives local MDT/HDT manufacturers more time to develop their technology, as they retain their enormous cost-advantage compared to foreign high-end OEMs. Similar advantage for Local MDT/HDT manufacturers is the current end-of-life regulation, which requires scrapping after 600,000 km. Such developments might be influenced by politics.  To mitigate risk of such unfavorable standard, global truck manufacturers have to make proactive efforts in involving and lobbying the organizations that develop regulations. The resources and experience of the Chinese partner in dealing with the policy-makers are also essential to be leveraged to address this challenge.

Finally, global truck manufacturers will be exposed to legal compliance risks when working with their Chinese joint venture or affiliated company.  In spite of measures taken to address the problem, bribery and other corrupt business practices are common in China.  Several years ago, individuals within the Daimler Truck division were implicated in an anti-bribery case in China.  Daimler was required to pay as much as USD $185Mn for reconciliation, and the company has been compelled to reinforce corporate compliance in every process of the business operation.  Corrective actions such as establishment of a regional compliance office, compliance-related business processes, mandatory compliance training, and a hotline to report violations of compliance behavior have turned out to be highly effective in mitigating the compliance risk for Daimler in China.