Showing posts with label MDT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MDT. Show all posts

10.29.2013

Understanding the Chinese Commercial Vehicle Market

China Car Times, October 28, 2013





Respected China auto analyst Bill Russo gives his five part opinion and outlook on the Chinese commercial vehicle market in this must read report. The Chinese CV world is the polar opposite to the automotive world, consumers base their purchases on best bang for the dollar, nearly all purchases are Chinese brands and foreign brands are the 1% rather than 50+ percent as in the auto industry.

One opening point is extremely note worthy:
Global manufacturers will increasingly be pushed into the luxury “niche”, unless they adjust their business model and develop low-price, as opposed to low-cost products, which are not just “good enough”, but have the right features, durability, more rapid innovation, and lower price to be sold globally. The Chinese market is already highly fragmented, and the pathway to entry for foreign players is not obvious. However, we believe that several market entry options exist as previously noted. MAN’s JV with Sinotruk may be able to crack open the mid-range market in which local OEMs are dominant.

Competing In The China Market

China Law Blog, October 27, 2013

Click here to view this at China Law Blog


By Dan Harris on  Posted in China Business





Bill Russo has a wealth of experience and knowledge about China’s automotive and truck industries as anyone and I always enjoy his writings on those industries.  He recently came out with a five part article on “Competing in the China Truck Market” and it is excellent.

Like so many excellent articles on a single industry, almost all of what Russo says about China’s truck industry applies with equal force to competing in the China market as a whole.

If you are doing business in China or just thinking of doing so — be it related to trucks or not — I recommend you go here and read all five installments of Russo’s article.

And if that article does not help you with your China business, I’ll eat my hat.

10.15.2013

"Competing in the China Truck Market" rated Most Popular Article in CHINAtalk

CHINAtalk, October, 2013 edition

The following recognition was received for Bill Russo's series of articles on the China truck market in the recent edition of GlobalAutoIndustry.com's CHINAtalk newsletter:

MOST POPULAR ARTICLES FROM SEPTEMBER EDITION
Competing in the China Truck Market: Leveraging China for the World
We are in the midst of an economic revolution: a shift of the global center of gravity of economic strength towards the east, which is fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape of numerous industries.  As an economic bellwether, the ...  Read on...
1st installment:   An Introduction

2nd installment:  The Competitive Landscape

3rd installment:   Policy and Regulatory Outlook

4th installment:   Implications for Multi-National Corporations

5th installment:   Winning in China's Mid-Market


Click here to read the article in the September edition of CHINAtalk

5.06.2013

Competing in the China Truck Market - Leveraging China for the World

by Bill Russo

This is the sixth and final installment in a series on the China Commercial Vehicles market.  


Click here to read the first installment.


Click here to read the second installment.


Click here to read the third installment.


Click here to read the fourth installment.


Click here to read the fifth installment.


We are in the midst of an economic revolution: a shift of the global center of gravity of economic strength towards the east, which is fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape of numerous industries.  As an economic bellwether, the automotive industry is of great importance to this rebalancing of economic power.   The changes that result from the restructuring underway in the automotive sector are fundamental and irreversible.

After an unprecedented period of economic expansion, the Chinese government began taking measures to shift the economy to a more stable and sustainable pattern going forward.  China is likely to manage the risks associated with this transition with little disruption to the world, the environment, and the fabric of its own society.

By 2020, we anticipate that the commercial HD/MD trucks install base will increase by almost 7 million units to 10.7 million and annual sales will rise to 1.7 million – representing 43% of the global truck market.  With anticipated growth in export sales of Chinese-assembled trucks, it is easy to see how the Chinese market will be the most important market in the world.

It is becoming increasingly urgent for global truck manufacturers to get in the game in China.   The local players will increasingly influence regulatory policies and standards, making it more difficult to enter and compete in the market in the future.   The delay of Euro 4 gives local MDV/HDV manufactures more time to develop their technology, as they retain their enormous cost-advantage compared to European and Japanese high-end OEMs.

While it is legitimate to question whether Chinese companies can assume a leadership role in the transformation of the global commercial truck industry, one simply cannot deny the influence that China has had on industry developments.  The sheer size and growth of the China market will require multinationals to consider reprioritization of their capital plans and resource allocation.   The reallocation of production and supply resources to China has fundamentally changed the cost structure of many industries – which changes the entire competitive pricing game.  China’s government policies and centrally planned economy have supported the creation of the infrastructure needed to stimulate both the supply and demand side of the auto business.

Already, low-cost “good-enough” quality Chinese companies are about to change the global competitive landscape with products that are relevant to the high-growth global emerging markets.  As China automotive players begin to consolidate, they will increase their efficiency, scale and R&D capabilities – making them even more competitive in the future.

Global manufacturers will increasingly be pushed into the luxury “niche”, unless they adjust their business model and develop low-price, as opposed to low-cost products, which are not just “good enough”, but have the right features, durability, more rapid innovation, and lower price to be sold globally.  The Chinese market is already highly fragmented, and the pathway to entry for foreign players is not obvious.  However, we believe that several market entry options exist as previously noted.  MAN’s JV with Sinotruk may be able to crack open the mid-range market in which local OEMs are dominant.

A catalyst is defined as “a person or thing that precipitates an event”.  This is an appropriate characterization of China’s role in the transformation of the global auto industry.  In a globalized world, we will likely find that the transformation of the automotive business model may not be linked to any one company or country.  Instead, leading 21st century companies will be the ones that can quickly adapt to the reality of globalization.

The emergence of China as the largest automobile market in the world is a significant event only in the sense that it causes the entire world to take notice of just how fast this economy is developing – and to also understand precisely how China is transforming the global auto industry.  Rather than trying in vain to turn the clock back to the way things used to be, it would be wise to learn how to use these transformational forces to define a business model to leverage the capabilities which globalization makes possible.


3.31.2013

Competing in the China Truck Market - Winning in China's Mid-Market

April 1, 2013

by Bill Russo

This is the fifth installment in a series on the China Commercial Vehicles market.  


Click here to read the first installment.


Click here to read the second installment.


Click here to read the third installment.


Click here to read the fourth installment.

Most multi-national companies that aspire to be global leaders have no choice but to find a way to win in the Chinese mid-market. 


The common strategies employed by MNCs are to:

  1. Ignore the risk and avoid competing in China’s mid-market altogether.
  2. Offer global products and wait until China catches up to more upscale demand, which works only for a limited number of sectors.
  3. Pursue a two-tier strategy with a core brand sold along with a lower-priced “good enough” brand considered. MAN is following this approach since early 2011 and Daimler trucks are considering it with their partner Foton.


Multinationals simply cannot afford to cede this mid-market to local competitors.  Instead, they must set about organizing themselves to face the emerging Chinese competitors on their own terms – with products that meet Chinese
needs, developed at Chinese cost, and which can then be taken out of China to other markets around the world. They must stop thinking about what it is they can bring to China, and instead start focusing on what China’s mid-market can offer them – what culture and structures they must adopt that will allow them to innovate at a lower cost and to deliver the goods and services that will drive the next round of global growth.

A good example can be found in the construction equipment industry. Caterpillar, which in the 1990s focused on government relationships and selling traditional, high end products to China, shifted focus after the entry of Japanese and Korean competitors in the mid-market segments, and being squeezed by lower-end local players. In the late 2000’s, Caterpillar acquired Shandong Engineering Machinery and formed local R&D centers to expand into lower end market, while optimizing its cost base to compete. Clearly, Caterpillar reasoned, there was a market segment that was here to stay and CAT’s traditional product and business model positioning wasn’t going to be adequate.

In the medical equipment sector, another good example of a mid-market innovation was General Electric’s development of ultrasound machines. From 1990 to 2000, GE served the Chinese ultrasound market with machines developed in the US and Japan, priced at $100K and upwards. While these products were successful with a narrow set of hospitals, the price point was above the affordability threshold of many. In 2002, GE’s local team in China leveraged GE global resources to develop a cheaper, portable machine, priced at $30-40K. And then in 2007, GE’s local, China organization launched a dramatically cheaper model, priced at only $15K. The result of these step-wise innovations in somewhat functionality but at dramatically lower price points, were products that saw rapidly increasing sales in China from $4M in 2002 to $278M in 2008, and at the same time, these mid-market products found new markets abroad. As it turned out, there had been latent demand for lower-priced ultrasound machines even in the world’s most developed markets, but neither GE nor its competitors had realized this or pursued this demand with relevant products.

Mid-market products are not simply lower-cost variants to global, high end products that can be delivered at lower price points.  Foreign and Chinese companies will bring very different mindsets into the battle for the middle market.

Although the competitive strategy to address the middle markets may be different, the path for both Chinese and foreign companies is the same: access the middle market growth opportunity to both extend brands and product reach with the magnitude of impact that can change the global competitive landscape.    
Ultimately, mid-market capabilities rooted in China can be leveraged to tap global markets with similar demand patterns.  

While the size and importance of the Chinese mid-market opportunity may be understood, it is often unclear how Multinationals can participate in the market.  The Chinese market is already highly fragmented, and the pathway to entry for foreign players is not obvious.  However, we believe that several market entry options exist.  It is important to understand that competing in Chinas rapidly expanding and highly competitive mid-market will require an integrated set of capabilities.

For example, MAN SE (Maschinenfabrik Augsburg-Nürnberg), in a joint venture with China’s Sinotruk, has maintained a two-tiered strategy since early 2011.  Vehicles for the Chinese market are sold under the Shandeka brand name, and those for other emerging markets across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are sold as Sitrak.  This strategy allows MAN to sell two different vehicles at two different price points to two different markets, with separate business models.

In China’s passenger vehicle market, similar two-tiered strategies are increasingly adopted by international OEMs in the form of Joint Venture local brand development.  Starting with the Everus brand launch by Guangzhou Honda in 2010, Shanghai GM Wuling, Dongfeng Nissan, and Dongfeng Honda have each launched their respective JV local brands.  The vehicles carrying those brands are often originally branded vehicles at the end of their life cycle, which are rebranded after certain local adaptations are made to meet the taste of the Chinese consumer.  Such an approach is intended to generate higher volume through upgraded old generation vehicles without diluting the brand image of international players.

The two-tiered strategy, with separate but parallel business models, can be effective:  it enables companies to compete in mid-markets where they otherwise could not.  However, it is not a trivial task for many global producers of industrial equipment to build the capabilities needed to sell effectively to mid-market customers in China.  They must invest in Chinese (or equivalent) R&D and product development, simultaneously integrating their new operations with their old and managing intellectual property challenges. They also lack the home advantages that Chinese mid-market innovators possess: the knowledge of their market niche, access to low-cost production resources, and a deep understanding of the regulatory and operational environment.  Joint ventures such as MAN’s can help, but they also add complexity.

A small number of global companies are focusing on developing an integrated capabilities system that approaches Chinese mid-market customers and Western higher-end customers in an integrated way.  This requires a relentless focus on improving operations and product development together with regional integration.  For example, a company might migrate more parts of its value chain and innovation practices to China and other lower-cost countries — with the intent not of saving labor costs, but of gaining distinctive production and sourcing capabilities that can be put in place around the world. These new efforts can specifically target the country’s mid-market and use local engineers and research staff accustomed to more frugal ways of thinking.  It may not be obvious at first how particular product lines will be affected, but the new efforts can act as springboards for the kinds of ventures that lead to capabilities that can be leveraged around the world[1].







[1] Edward Tse, John Jullens and Bill Russo, “China’s Mid Market Innovators”, Strategy & Business, Summer 2012, Issue 67.








2.28.2013

Competing in the China Truck Market - Implications for Multi-National Corporations

March 1, 2013


by Bill Russo

This is the fourth installment in a series on the China Commercial Vehicles market.  


Click here to read the first installment.


Click here to read the second installment.


Click here to read the third installment.


China’s market size has been hyped to the point of cliché since the country first opened its doors to foreign investment.  By 2020, the China HD/MD truck market is expected to reach 1.7 million units sold per year.  As noted in an earlier article in this series, products positioned in the in the price range between 200K – 350K RMB account for 70% of total sales.  The companies positioned to sell to this rapidly expanding “mid-market” segment aim to address the needs of domestic customers looking for goods and services that offer “good enough” quality and value for the money. 

Sandwiched between the premium market and the bottom of the pyramid, lies the rapidly expanding global middle market --  a segment of business and retail customers that is rapidly gaining buying power, especially in emerging markets.  The middle market offers more than incremental customers and profits – it is a key competitive battleground. The winners here will likely be the leading companies of tomorrow.

Beneath the veneer of many middle market strategies ostensibly focused on incremental growth, the emerging markets are incubators for a wave of local companies that are trying to climb up the product-price pyramid to eventually emerge as global competitors.

Whatever the motivation for pursuing mid-market strategies with an increasingly global scope, the elements of offense and defense have become equal in importance.  In the spirit of the Innovator’s Dilemma, written and popularized by Harvard’s Clayton M. Christenson[1], companies are adopting the mantra, ‘if I don’t do it to myself, someone else will do it to me.’  The dilemma of introducing fit-for-purpose, but lower priced products in the home markets of multi-national corporations has challenged the conventional business logic of pursuing projects with ever-higher return on investment.  However, succeeding in the rapidly expanding mid-market will certainly trump having an emerging-market competitor do it before you.

Mid-market form

The underlying reason for the emergence of mid-market players in China is the nature of the country’s economic growth. For many industries, China’s product market segmentation has become very diverse, typically far more than MNCs’ home countries.  In many countries, the market pyramid has a small top wedge, a modest middle slice and large base.  But in some others, the lower tier is smaller, the top is growing but still relatively small, and much of the expansion is coming in a bulging middle.  Whatever its size, this middle tier is the natural home base for many of the best Chinese companies. Here is where they find the opportunities best aligned with their strengths.

However, of most importance is that while winning in the mid-market will determine the fate of many companies within China, China’s mid-market impact will be felt far beyond the country’s borders, as some of the more prescient multinational companies have started to realize.  The Chinese companies emerging in this space will gain access to enormous scale advantages. Any profits they make will be reinvested, allowing them to move both up the value chain, and eventually out of the country to the international markets.

Breeding ground

The importance of China’s mid-market stems from the fact that this is where Chinese companies are establishing themselves. China’s domestic HD/MD manufacturers already command more than 90% share of the market for commercial trucks, and virtually all of the low-end market.  Having locked in this business, market leaders including CNHTC, FAW, DFM, BAIC and SAIC are in the process of acquiring capabilities that allow them to address the expanding mid-market.  Developing a highly adaptive and good-enough mid-market product offering is the pathway for such companies to win in China as well as expand beyond China.

They know they cannot enter at the top end of the market for most goods – in almost every industry; their products are not good enough to take on multinationals head-to-head.  They also know that while the bottom tier is perhaps their most natural home, such is the rate of China’s economic growth that this segment – however big it may be today – can only shrink, and at a rapid rate, over the next few years. Companies that want to grow must therefore address the middle tiers.

This is where their range of advantages can be brought to bear. Domestic businesses have – and will continue to have – privileged access to this tier. Not only will they be better positioned to offer strong value propositions, but they will also be better prepared to overcome the structural impediments that will prevent the rapid adoption of global business models in sectors such as construction and agriculture.

The size and diversity of China has created very complex market segmentation.  Regions are developing at different rates, with differing amounts of access to other markets both within the country and overseas. While this diversity will not last for ever, the transition stage the country has already entered will persist for many years to come – far longer than in other emerging markets, such as those of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.  Here they will be able to temper themselves and build scale.

The major new companies that emerge from this breeding ground – some private, others state-owned – will be some of the most disruptive forces in Chinese business. Subject to intense competition from other mid-market firms, and selling to customers who themselves are constrained by competition, these businesses are both frugal and focused. From their mid-market bases, the best of them can build scale, add capabilities, and start to encroach on turf that multinationals have long regarded as their own.

For local players in the emerging markets, a mid-market strategy can be quite challenging, since local brands frequently incur greater pricing risk when delivering higher contented products into the market.  This is for a couple of reasons.  First, when the local product’s brand image does not naturally carry the price points required to support feature-rich products, these products are at risk of having to be discounted. Second, local companies are typically less accustomed to managing the complexity entailed in feature rich products, introducing the risks of cost-creep.  Overcoming such challenges is key to the development of the next generation of global competitors.

Many Multinationals assume that they just have to hold on until the Chinese market is mature enough to afford their products. But by that time these mid-market innovators will have built long-lasting relationships with their Chinese clients, and will have narrowed the gap between themselves and their global competitors.   Sany, who became the world-largest concrete pump manufacturer and who has recently acquired the second largest producer (Germany’s Putzmeister), is an example of this new breed of global players.





[1] Clayton M. Christenson, The Innovator’s Dilemma (Harper Business: 1997)