Bill Russo to Address UCLA Business School Delegation

Beijing, China, July 4, 2013

Presentation titled "Strategies for Success in China" to be delivered to students and representatives of the EMBA class from UCLA Anderson School of Management at 10:15am at the Regent Hotel in Beijing.

汽车业：召回频增凸显质量管控难题

China Business News, June 21, 2013

Click here to read the original article (in Chinese)

今年1月份起，经国务院常务会议去年10月份通过的《缺陷汽车产品召回管理条例》（下称《条例》)将施行。从召回管理办法上升到管理条例，召回力度的加大将督促汽车厂商对不合格的产品进行召回的次数增加。今年以来，上汽通用五菱、大众汽车、江淮汽车等先后进行了召回，其中召回频率相对较高的仍是斯巴鲁汽车，在过去的一年内，斯巴鲁汽车在中国已经进行了三次召回。

“汽车厂商对其汽车召回是其产品设计或者质量有瑕疵。汽车产品是较为复杂的日用消费品，对汽车设计乃至生产质量管控好的企业也可能会生产出有瑕疵的汽车，不过如果一些汽车厂商的召回频率比较高，那或许说明其在研发设计阶段或者供应链管理上出现了管理难题。”中国汽车技术研究中心一位长期关注汽车召回的专家王强（化名）告诉记者。

召回或将频繁

公开资料显示，从2004年3月国家质检总局等四部门发布《缺陷汽车产品召回管理规定》开始，中国实行实行缺陷汽车产品召回制度。截至2011年底，共实施召回419次，累计召回缺陷汽车产品621.1万辆，到去年《条例》获得通过，累计召回的缺陷汽车多达898.6万辆。

上述《条例》还对隐瞒汽车产品缺陷、不实施召回等违法行为加大了处罚力度。《条例》规定，生产者、经营者不配合产品质量监督部门缺陷调查，或生产者未按照已备案的召回计划实施召回，或生产者未将召回计划通报销售者，由产品质量监管部门责令改正；拒不改正的，处50万元以上100万元以下的罚款。

“该《条例》通过并颁布之后，将从原来的部门规章升格为行政法规，将对行业也有更高的法律效力和约束力。”王强表示。

从今年1月份开始，经本报统计国家质检总局发布的召回公报显示，共有宝马、克莱斯勒、现代等28家汽车厂商47次的召回。

而去年同期，国家质检总局发布的召回公报显示，包括标致雪铁龙、宝马等共有21家厂商进行了34次召回。

博斯公司汽车行业高级专家罗威在接受本报记者采访时分析，汽车的复杂性是这些年汽车召回越来越多的原因。他认为，汽车是最复杂的零售产品，未来，汽车会配置越来越多的汽车电子系统，同时，厂商需要通过全球的产业链条来对其进行汽车集成化生产，因此每家厂商都有可能出现召回，即使对质量把控最为优秀的汽车制造商也会“避之不及”，“不过优秀的汽车厂商召回的频率会比较低”，他说。

“一款新车上市前，整车和零部件都会经过严格的长时间测试，但谁也无法保证所有问题都能够在测试阶段被发现。”一家跨国汽车零部件公司中国区副总裁告诉记者，根据发达市场的经验，新车上市前的严格测试，只能确保车辆能够达到设计要求、安全正常行驶。

一些问题只有在产品大规模投放市场和长时间使用后，才会逐渐被发现。“但是汽车厂商在投放产品到市场之前，尽可能地对投放产品进行多循环的测试非常重要。如果企业多次发生产品召回，应该是其产品质量、供应链管理出现了问题。”他进一步分析说。

供应链管理失衡

科尔尼全球合伙人孙健将汽车召回分成两类，一类是汽车厂商在前期的研发设计上存在先天不合理，另一类是汽车厂商对某些部件的质量管控出现了问题，这主要体现在供应链管理上。

后者，即供应链管理的失控造成的汽车召回，归根结底，是管理资源的匹配失衡问题。

随着汽车市场竞争的加剧，为了提升产品竞争力，对汽车供应链不断提出降低成本的要求逐渐成为汽车厂商降低成本的主要途径。不少汽车零配件供应商相关人士告诉记者，汽车厂商这些年来每年都会要求汽车供应商的价格下滑10%左右。

汽车厂商通过不断压榨汽车供应商来获得竞争力显然不可持续，并存在隐患。

丰田曾抛却了全球知名的精益生产模式，变成了以成本为主导，以质量为代价的生产方式，最终导致了其大规模的召回，影响了品牌形象。

丰田汽车上一任董事长渡边捷昭有句名言叫“拧干毛巾上最后一滴水”，可见对成本控制十分严格。

在企业实际运行中，对成本的合理控制也是一种优势，但是在和产品质量的次序上不能混乱。丰田汽车现任董事长丰田章男在总结丰田汽车2010年召回门事件时对中国记者表示，“丰田模式中第一是安全，第二是质量，第三是数量，第四是成本。但最近一些年，在优先顺序上出了一些问题，同时，公司内部有些人过高地评价了自己取得的业绩，把短期业绩当成了发展的标准。”

孙健建议，汽车厂商对供应链管理应采用灵活的方式，要求供应商降低成本以及自己控制成本都应该在合理范围内，不应该以牺牲产品质量为代价。

Bill Russo to Join Closing Plenary Session at China Automotive Market Development Summit

Chongqing, China, June 6, 2013

美国博斯公司（Booz & Company）高级专家，Synergistics 有限公司创始人、总裁Bill Russo

TOPIC: China Auto market: Making transition from high growth to sustainable development China’s auto market has shifted from very strong growth to slower but still healthy growth. The aim of this final session will be to discuss challenges for OEMs, policy makers, dealers and suppliers, and so on during this period of transition and ways to cope with these challenges. · How should auto enterprises adjust their marketing strategies and operations as we transition to the new market dynamics? · How can government and policy makers assist the development of the industry and render support for major Chinese and foreign players? · What do market changes mean to the industry structure and the relationship between different enterprises? SUN Xiaodong, Vice President, Geely LIU Zhifeng, Vice President & Sales Division Vice General Manager, Beijing Hyundai Motor Company, China Dr. Patrick P. Steinemann, Managing Director & co-head of Asia Industrial Investment Banking, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, USA Bill Russo, Founder and President of Synergistics Limited & Senior Advisor of Booz & Company, USA Moderated by: MA Xiaowei, CEO, iautos, China Click below to read the article on the session from 163.com: Bill Russo: 政府需引导汽车行业的整合

全球汽车论坛六月开营销专场 聚焦汽车市场_东莞汽车网

Chongqing, China, June 6, 2013

Click here to read the original posting

首届中国汽车市场发展高峰论坛将在中国汽车名城重庆隆重召开。这一论坛是全球汽车论坛(GAF)框架下系列会议的重要组成部分，以“变革·创新——迎接汽车市场营销新时代”为主题，旨在打造一场专注汽车市场的实战、实用峰会。　　此次市场论坛由中国国际贸易促进委员会汽车行业委员会及重庆市人民政府主办，汽车观察杂志协办，清华大学经济管理学院为学术支持单位，并由重庆车展组委会承办，是享誉国内外的全球汽车论坛框架下的专业论坛之一，它专门针对汽车市场发展进行打造，恰逢2013重庆国际车展之前召开。　　中国汽车市场发展高峰论坛首次推出就坚持高起点、国际性、专业化和实用性的特色，演讲嘉宾不仅有政府官员、各大汽车企业的营销老总和大的经销商集团的老总，而且在世界范围内广泛邀请知名营销专家、大学教授以及来自银行和咨询机构的权威专家学者，这使得论坛突破了业内人士经验交流的层面，站到了一个更高的、全方位的对汽车市场的审视平台。论坛的议题设计也集中在目前汽车市场的焦点、热点和难点问题，具有很强的实操性。　　“中国汽车市场发展高峰论坛旨在引导汽车企业在营销上产生变革和创新，用新的营销理念、策略和方法助力整个汽车产业的可持续发展。”中国国际贸易促进委员会汽车行业委员会会长、全球汽车论坛组委会执行主席王侠说。　　首届市场论坛选择在重庆举办，体现了主办方对中西部市场的全新认识。在中国汽车市场整体进入低速增长的同时，一线特大城市和东部沿海经济发达城市的汽车已趋于饱和，而在西部大开发战略带动下的西部地区则成为汽车市场增长的新引擎。作为一个重要的汽车生产基地和中西部区域的连接点，重庆对于西部汽车市场无疑具有无可替代的示范和辐射效应。今年的重庆车展在移师到重庆悦来国际博览中心之后，其规模和影响力取得明显的提升，值此重庆车展期间召开中国汽车市场发展高峰论坛，实乃相得益彰，将有力的推动我国中西部乃至全国汽车市场的理性发展。　　据了解，为时一天的会议日程安排非常紧凑，将由2个全体会议和8场平行讨论环节组成，总的有效会议时间超过13个小时，涵盖广泛的议题：中国汽车市场的发展脉络、现状及中长期展望；不同细分市场、不同区域级别市场所带来的机会；数字化营销在微增长时代的作用；奢侈品营销；中高级丛林法则；中国汽车产业海外市场发展机会；市场营销创新：如何通过精益营销和全程营销来提高客户价值；三包：修理、更换、退货责任；汽车经销商行业未来的发展模式；中国汽车市场：高速增长向可持续发展转变等。　　

据悉，将有约350名国内外汽车行业市场、销售精英人士、赴会高峰论坛，他们主要来自中国和世界主要汽车厂商、重要汽车零部件制造商、重要汽车经销商集团、汽车销售领域的学科带头专家、中外汽车专业媒体和综合媒体的领军代表及银行和金融机构高管等。　　从目前论坛组委会透露的信息来看，绝大部分活跃在中国市场上的主流汽车公司、合资公司的40多位销售及市场的总经理应邀参加。美国诺思伍德大学汽车市场系主任ElgieBright教授、英国亚洲汽车信息机构董事总经理Ashvin Chotai、J.D. Power全球零售体验副总裁Charles Mills、美国博斯公司高级专家Bill Russo、《经济学人》驻华首席代表许思涛、国家信息中心信息资源开发部主任徐长明、美国知名行业记者Alysha Webb、美国美银美林银行亚太区汽车业务董事总经理Patrick P.Steinemann、德勤中国汽车流通行业主管合伙人周永汉、日本高级培训指导专家杉澤正弘等来自八个国家的近20名学者及业界专家都将出席，并和到会代表一起探讨中国汽车市场的变化和挑战，分享成功的市场策略和营销案例，从而达到本论坛“国际视野，中国分享；启迪行业，决胜未来”的设计理念。

Bill Russo Chairs China CEO Roundtable at J.P. Morgan China Summit 2013

Beijing, China, June 4, 2013

Following a decade of rapid growth that culminated in a stimulus-driven surge in demand in 2009-2010, the China auto market has sharply decelerated, with growth slipping to 2.5% in 2011 and 4.3% in 2012. While China's auto demand will exceed the 20 million unit level in 2013, we can expect to see even more intense competition among automakers as they adjust to a new pattern while maintaining profitability. The aim of this panel is to discuss opportunities and challenges faced by different competitors as they deal with this “inflection point”

• Opportunities and challenges in luxury and imported vehicles market.
  
• Opportunities and challenges in emerging provinces and cities, as well as
  in second and third tier cities.
  
• Sales and marketing strategies to exploit these opportunities
  
• Strategies to diversify profit streams and maximize profit opportunities
• Panelists:
  Mr. Karsten Engel, China CEO, BMW
  Mr. Hubertus Troska, China CEO, Daimler
  Mr. John Lawler, China CEO, Ford
  Dr. Joerg Mull, China EVP, Volkswagen
  Chair: Mr. Bill Russo, President, Synergistics Ltd, former Northeast Asia VP, Chrysler

Click here to access the video recording of the panel session:  http://mms.prnasia.com/jpmorgan/20130604/track1/2013_d1_t1_1400.htm

J.P. Morgan China Summit 2013 Preliminary Agenda from Synergistics Limited

Bill Russo to Join Panel Discussion at China Automotive Market Development Summit

Chongqing, China, June 6, 2013

TOPIC:   Exploring opportunities in different market segments and different geographic tiers As China's auto demand exceeds the 20 million unit level, it is becoming more and more important to segment the market both by product, price and tiers of market. The aim of this panel is to discuss opportunities and challenges faced by different products at different geographic areas in such a huge auto market as China: Key product/price and geographic segments Opportunities and challenges in luxury and imported vehicles market Sales and marketing strategies to exploit these opportunities Opportunities and challenges in emerging provinces and cities, as well as in second and third tier cities Panelists: JIANG Chunyong, Chief editor, Chongqing ChenBao, China Bill Russo, Founder and President of Synergistics Limited & Senior Advisor of Booz & Company, United States Ashvin Chotai, Managing Director, Intelligence Automotive Asia, UK YANG Min, BESCAR Co.,Ltd., China Moderated by: LIN Hai, Host, Chongqing Traffic Radio, China Click below to read the summary of the session from auto.sina.com: 汽车细分市场的机会 Summit Program:

China Automotive Market Development Summit agenda 重庆论坛邀请函130504 from Synergistics Limited

Five reasons why auto world is shifting to emerging markets and what it means for India

The Economic Times of India, May 19, 2013

The dichotomy at times is hard to fathom. The India auto industry closed 2012-13 with a sales dip of 6.7%, the first drop in 12 years. The outlook for 2013-14 isn't much brighter, with industry experts and analysts predicting a growth of 3-5%.

Over the past decade, the demand and hence the manufacturing landscape in the auto world has begun shifting from the developed to the emerging world.

Yet talk to top honchos of auto MNCs and you get a different picture. Honda sees India as an important leg on which global growth rests. Ford Motors CEO Joginder Singh says the Detroit carmaker remains buoyant about the country's long-term potential. Ditto for Nissan and Toyota.

The apparent disconnect between the sales slowdown in India today and auto MNCs' long-term ambitions has a good explanation. Over the past decade, the demand and hence the manufacturing landscape in the auto world has begun shifting from the developed to the emerging world.

Here are five reasons why this shift is happening and what it means for India:

1) The Rise of Asia

According to estimates of Brooking Institution, a US public policy research organisation, the US' and Europe's share of the world's middle class — today at around 50% — will dip to 22% by 2030. In Asia, it will more than double from 30% to 64% by then. This shift is already reflected in the automobile industry.



About a decade back, in 2002, Asia's contribution to global production capacity in the automobile industry was 15-20%. Today it accounts for over half. China has become the top country in car sales, beating the US. Auto MNCs, lured by this huge growth potential, are shifting production bases to Asia to be closer to their customers. India with a capacity to produce 3 million cars is the third largest.

With vehicle penetration in India at a low 13 per 1,000 people (compared to 45 per 1,000 for China) and a growing young population, it should soon overtake Korea as the second-largest car producer in Asia, after China.

About a decade back, in 2002, Asia's contribution to global production capacity in the automobile industry was 15-20%. Today it accounts for over half. China has become the top country in car sales, beating the US. Auto MNCs, lured by this huge growth potential, are shifting production bases to Asia to be closer to their customers. India with a capacity to produce 3 million cars is the third largest.

2) Global Platforms, Global Lifecycle

Almost all auto companies are looking to reduce the manufacturing complexity in their product portfolio. They are laying thrust on global platforms — using the same base globally to churn out a range of vehicles. For example, Volkswagen's Polo (a compact) and Vento (a sedan) are based on the same platform. It is now also developing a sub-four metre Vento — on the same platform — specifically for India. It is reportedly considering an MPV and a compact SUV on the same platform.

Increasingly the auto world is seeing a global convergence of the product lifecycle. More and more auto firms are now doing global launches of their products in different markets and also phasing them out simultaneously. For example, Ford EcoSport will soon debut in India as part of its global launch.

"As platforms become globalised, there is less pressure to locate production close to any one market. We're seeing surprisingly strong manufacturing centres developing in North America, particularly the US and Mexico. Of course China, Korea, parts of Southeast Asia and Europe will continue to be strong production hubs," says US-based Jeremy Anwly, vicechairman of Edmunds.com, an auto advisory portal.

3) From High Cost to Low Cost

It helps that production costs in most developed countries like the US, Japan and most western European countries are sharply higher than the emerging markets. Perhaps the only exception is Germany which has maintained its manufacturing edge due to its relentless focus on technology, its thriving manufacturing ecosystem and its focus on high-end cars.



As a result, auto MNCs are shifting their production bases from high-cost economies like the US and western Europe to low-cost countries like China and India. Analysts estimate that producing cars in India today may be 15-20% cheaper than in the US. In fact, there are many countries like the Czech Republic and Argentina — with no primary domestic demand — which are emerging as low-cost export hubs for the regions.

"Rather than setting up duplicate production bases, OEMs are increasingly seeking to gain efficiencies and scale by establishing a production base in the most efficient place — where they can minimise cost and maximise revenue," says Beijing-based Bill Russo, senior adviser, Booz & Company, a consultancy firm.

4) FTAs Shift Balance

Many countries are signing regional or bilateral free-trade agreements (FTAs). The US has signed one with Mexico, India has signed with the Southeast Asian countries. India's FTA with EU though has run into a controversy. The US has signed FTAs with a range of countries, including Mexico which is fast emerging as a car export hub in North America. Turkey is also emerging as production hub, partly due to its FTA with countries like Korea.

5) Convergence of Demand & Norms

At a macro level, there is some convergence of the kind of vehicles that consumers in different markets need. Europebased Mark Fulthorpe, senior manager, IHS Global, says environmental and efficiency norms in different countries today are much closer than they ever were in the past. This means companies have to align their cars with policy norms that are in a much narrower band.

Also, globally, there is a clear shift in consumers' preference for smaller, compact and fuel-efficient vehicles, says Haig Stoddard, a veteran auto analyst with US-based Ward's Auto. All this means that auto MNCs have to deal with a far less heterogeneous policy environment and consumer demand — allowing them more room to pick their production location.