Saab: Ultima Chiamata (Last Call)

Quattroroute, June 24, 2011

La Saab è a un passo dal baratro. Mancano i soldi per pagare i fornitori e anche quelli per pagare gli stipendi ai suoi dipendenti che questo mese resteranno a secco. L'annuncio è stato dato oggi con una nota dove si spiega che la "Swedish Automobile (la Casa madre, l'ex Spyker Cars n.d.r.) è in trattative con vari soggetti per ottenere capitali a breve termine". Per reperirli è stato persino messo in vendita lo stabilimento di Trollhättan, attraverso una formula che prevede il successivo riaffitto degli immobili da parte di Saab. Insomma, dopo i blocchi della produzione, la ripartenza e un ulteriore stop imputabili al mancato pagamento dei fornitori, la situazione è tutt'altro che tranquilla. A conferma, c'è la minaccia da parte dei sindacati di avviare le procedure di bancarotta.

Nessuna garanzia sul futuro. "Le discussioni proseguono", continua il comunicato, " ma non è sicuro che avranno successo e che il sostegno finanziario arrivi. Al momento vanno avanti le trattative con i fornitori per stabilire i termini di rimborso al fine di riprendere la consegna delle componenti". Secondo alcune stime il debito ammonterebbe a 300 milioni di corone svedesi, al cambio quasi 33 milioni di euro. Un'ancora di salvezza potrebbe arrivare dal magnate russo Vladimir Antonov che si è detto interessato a rilevare il 30% della società svedese mettendo sul piatto più di 30 milioni di euro.

L'affare cinese. Solo poche settimane fa il costruttore svedese aveva annunciato un'intesa con due aziende cinesi, PangDa e Yougman Lotus che prevede una partecipazione al capitale per 245 milioni di euro, oltre all'alleanza strategica costituita da due joint-venture tripartite, rispettivamente per la distribuzione e la produzione in Cina di automobili con il marchio Saab e di veicoli commercializzati attraverso un sottomarchio. Ma tali alleanze devono essere sottoposte all'approvazione del governo di Pechino, che di solito ha tempi lunghi, come conferma Bill Russo, senior advisor di Booz & Co: "In Cina gli accordi sono molto di più complessi di quello che sembra: ci vuole tanto lavoro e tempo per renderli effettivi, almeno 18-24 mesi per un caso come questo".

Le decisioni di Pechino. "Non sappiamo se le autorità di Pechino approveranno gli accordi", continua Russo, "tutto è possibile, certo. Ma in Cina è in corso un consolidamento dei produttori locali che prevede la riduzione del numero (oggi sono oltre 100 n.d.r.): aggiungere un altro costruttore debole a un mercato già affollato non rientra nelle linee guida governative".

D.S.

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Saab-Pang Da deal has to win the blessing of the Chinese government

4WheelsNews, June 7, 2011

Pang Da, a China-based auto dealer, may have come to the rescue of Saab by signing a 110 million euro ($157 million) deal with its parent Spyker but their agreement has yet to get the approval of the Chinese government. Its outcome is of primary importance as it could signal how similar scenarios in the auto industry will proceed. According to analysts, the deal may go against Beijing’s philosophy of anointing only a few local companies that are able to compete globally.

William Russo, who operates a Beijing-based consultancy called Synergistics, said that the deal demonstrates just how much Chinese companies value European brands but it’s “highly unlikely” that the alliance will get the approval of the government as it goes against China's policies to get “fewer, stronger national brands.”

Nevertheless, Spyker CEO Victor Muller and Pang Da's chief Pang Qinghua remain optimistic as Pang Da completes its review of Saab, according to Autonews. Operations at Saab's plant in Trollhatten stopped for six weeks when unpaid bills caused suppliers to stop the delivery of parts. But this plant has recently reopened after receiving 30 million euros from Pang Da for the purchase of its products. Regulatory approval was not required for this straight product-purchase portion of the deal.

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Saab Firmly Under Chinese Control (If All Goes Well)

The Truth About Cars, June 13, 2011

The assembly lines in Trollhättan are still down and will be down for a while. With Spyker & Saab gasping for money, another Chinese party threw them a life line today. The price: Saab will be in Chinese control if and when all is approved.

Today, Saab, Chinese distributor Pangda Automobile and car manufacturer Zhejiang Youngman Lotus “signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU). The MOU includes an equity participation in the total aggregate amount of about EUR 245 million as well as a strategic alliance consisting of a three partite distribution joint venture and a tripartite manufacturing joint venture for Saab-branded and child brand vehicles in China,” Spyker says in a statement. The statement continues:

“The equity stake of Pang Da in Spyker will remain at 24 % raising its investment to EUR 109 million. The share price remains at EUR 4.19 per share and Pang Da will have the right to nominate up to two members of the Supervisory Board of Spyker.

Youngman will take a 29.9 % interest in Spyker on a fully diluted basis investing EUR 136 million at EUR 4.19 per share. Youngman will have the right to nominate up to two members of the Supervisory Board of Spyker.”

29.9 plus 24 percent equals 53.9 percent, says my calculator. Bingo. Saab is Chinese.

Then, there will be several Chinese joint ventures.

• There will be a manufacturing JV that makes “Saab branded and child branded vehicles for the China market.” Saab Automobile and Youngman will each have a 45 percent interest in the manufacturing JV and Pang Da will hold the remaining 10 percent.
• Then, there will be a distribution JV. Saab Automobile and Youngman will each have a 33 percent interest, Pangda will hold 34 percent.

Now keep in mind that Saab is owned by Spyker. If the deal goes through, Youngman and Pangda will own the joint ventures via their ownership of Spyker and hence Saab, and then again directly. Victor Muller better polish his resume.

Says AFP: “The deal, which still requires regulatory approval from a number of authorities, would place basically all of Sweden’s auto industry in Chinese hands, after Swedish brand Volvo was bought by Chinese Geely from Ford last year. Saab and Spyker chief executive Victor Muller said he was thrilled by the deal.”

Production will stay shut down at least until the end of this week, company spokeswoman Gunilla Gustavs told AFP, adding it was too soon to say when the assembly line would begin moving again.

Youngman is a relative nobody in the highly fractionalized Chinese auto market. They are more known for their buses. Youngman Lotus makes uninspired cars with the Lotus badge for added cognitive dissonance.

Whether Saab will continue to live another day or die, that is in the hands of Chinese regulators, GM, and European governments. AFP has its doubts: “It remained unclear however if the deal would be approved quickly enough to rescue Saab.”

The Financial Times called around and received nothing but unenthused comments.

Bill Russo, head of Synergistics, a Beijing auto consultancy, and former head of Chrysler in China, said: “Going public before doing the political engineering is generally not a pathway to success in China”.

“I don’t think Youngman has enough credibility to be the third partner in the Pang Da-Saab deal”, Namrita Chow, analyst with IHS Automotive, told the FT. “Beijing is unlikely to give approval for a venture that will bring direct competition to BAIC”.

Maybe, maybe not. There are rumors in Beijing that the smaller companies could be stalking horses for a bigger Chinese company. Saving Saab in Europe and setting up a new factory in China needs someone with bigger pockets.

What are the insiders in Sweden saying? Not much. The Saabsunited fanzine runs the press release uncommented between the story of a Saab with three big dogs, and an update about the still unsolved leaseback. And what does inside-saab.com have? A story about a drive through the Swedish midsummer night.

Prior dealings received much more fanfare.

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A weak car brand like Saab does not fit the policy of the Chinese government

Het Financieele Dagblad, June 15, 2011

Original publication in Dutch:

Een zwak automerk als Saab toevoegen past niet in het beleid van de Chinese overheid

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English Translation:

Victor Muller of Saab seems to have been saved by winning over Chinese Youngman as a production partner for Saab. But it is very unlikely that the Chinese government will approve the deal. And certainly not in the short term.

It is not very probable that the NDRC, China's mighty planning agency, will approve the Youngman-Saab deal

Victor Muller has done more for the promotion of the Chinese auto industry than hundreds of expensive campaigns. Until recently Hawtai, Pangda and Youngman were unknown Chinese car companies, but are now, thanks to Muller, suddenly on the map in the West. Four days later after a collaboration with Hawtai bounced half of May, he was able to trick China's largest car distributor Pangda for a substantial investment in the ailing Spyker. Because Pangda has no production license, a third party was necessary.

Therefore Youngman was found, which will take a share of 29.9% in Spyker for €136 million. Pangda will increase its investment up to €109 million. According to Spyker CEO Victor Muller this funding will secure his company in the medium and long term. That is, however, doubtful. The probability that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the mighty Economic Planning Agency China, will approve the deal, is small.

"I do not expect China to approve this deal, especially not in the short term”, says Namrita Chow, analyst IHS Automotive in Shanghai. Spyker is in a great hurry to find a wealthy partner for Saab. Therefore Chow is surprised that the company thinks this construction will soon get approval. "Spyker, has entirely misjudged the Chinese market. The NDRC will not allow Spyker to impose a time table. I don’t expect that there will be a decision within ten days. The approval of the cooperation between PSA Peugeot and Changan Automobile also took over one year. "

To survive Saab cannot do without an injection for such a long time. Bill Russo, senior automotive consultant with Booz & Company in Beijing also warns against too much optimism. "Deals in China are often more complicated than they seem at first. Much effort remains to be put into negotiating contracts and acquiring approval of the government. That takes time and Saab does not have that luxury."

According to Russo, a detailed joint venture agreementand a feasibility study are required as proof of the financial need for the deal. "All expenditure on R&D and manufacturing and locations must be included. This will cost 18 to 24 months."
Apart from the time pressure, analysts see no reason why China would approve the deal content wise or financially. "I just do not see it happen," Chow says. "Saab is an onerous and highly distressed brand, while Youngman is not among the top fifteen the Chinese car manufacturers. "

"Adding a weak player is not consistent with government policy ", says Russo. With investments by Chinese companies the NDRC looks at the wordlwide power of a car brand and the technology. "The NDRC is also trying to consolidate more than one hundred dealers, including many weak players, into a few strong players. Adding a weak global brand does not fit into that policy. "

A complicating factor for Youngman is that Beijing Automotive Industry
Holding Company (BAIC) wants to bring old Saab Models on the Chinese market with General Motors licenses, the former owner of Saab. They are not allowed to be called Saab, but they will intensify competition with Pangda-Youngman. "BAIC will be very unhappy about the deal between Saab and Youngman and lobby firmly against it in Beijing" Chow expects. "The big players in China will not buy the Saab brand," Chow thinks. "It has no positioning in China and will lose a lot of money. There is no interest for that. "

Saab in €245m equity deal with Youngman

Financial Times, June 13, 2011

The company that owns Saab, the struggling Swedish carmaker, said it had reached agreement with two Chinese companies on a €245m deal to distribute and produce cars in China.

Zhejiang Youngman Lotus Automobile will take a 29.9 per cent interest in Spyker Cars, which owns Saab Automobile, for €136m, alongside dealership group Pang Da Automobile Trade Co, which signed an agreement in May to distribute and produce Saab’s cars in China, Spyker said on Monday.

Amsterdam-based Spyker had previously said it planned to add a third partner to a Chinese-bankrolled plan to rescue Saab by selling and producing its cars in the world’s largest car market.

Spyker said on Monday that it had signed a memorandum of understanding on the tripartite deal, and that it was subject to regulatory approval.

Automotive analysts in China were sceptical that authorities there would allow the deal to go ahead. Pang Da entered the frame after a proposed earlier deal with Hawtai, another Chinese carmaker, collapsed.

Foreign investments by Chinese companies are subject to approval by at least three government agencies, including the country’s National Development and Reform Commission, which recently has become stricter about the companies which it allows to set up joint ventures or plants.

Bill Russo, head of Synergistics, a Beijing auto consultancy, said: “Going public before doing the political engineering is generally not a pathway to success in China”.

Pang Da signed an MOU in May that would have seen the Chinese company pay €65m to take 24 per cent of Spyker on a fully diluted basis. With Youngman entering as a new shareholder in Saab’s owner, Pang Da will still take a 24 per cent stake, but raise its investment to €109m.

The three companies will set up joint ventures to distribute and produce vehicles under Saab’s brand and a new marque to be owned by the venture.

The partners will take stakes of about a third each in the distribution joint venture. Saab and Youngman would each take 45 per cent of the manufacturing tie-up, with Pang Da holding the remaining 10 per cent.

Separately, Saab said on Monday it was in talks to raise more cash by selling and leasing back its property, and would announce a deal shortly.

Saab, which employs about 3,700 people, has halted the line at its plant in Trollhättan, north of Gothenburg, several times since March because of problems paying its suppliers. Last week it stopped production again as it sought to shore up a consistent flow of parts.

The brand sold fewer than 32,000 cars last year.

Youngman produces buses and some cars for Lotus, the British niche sports car maker.

Yale Zhang, managing director of Automotive Foresight, an industry consultancy in Shanghai, said the deal had little chance of government approval because its small size contradicted the government’s oft-stated goal of forcing consolidation in the highly fragmented Chinese car industry.

Another analyst said that the proposed venture could face opposition because of a pre-existing deal under which Beijing Automotive Industry Corporation (BAIC) bought production equipment for two outgoing Saab models.

“Beijing is unlikely to give approval for a venture that will bring direct competition to BAIC”, said Namrita Chow, analyst with IHS Automotive.

Click here to view article at FT.com

Analysis: Saab-Pangda deal faces sobering regulatory test

Reuters, June 2, 2011

(Reuters) - A well-heeled but little-known Chinese company has once again come to the rescue of a fading foreign auto brand: This time Pangda, a mainland auto dealer, has signed a 110 million euro ($157 million) pact with Dutch firm Spyker (SPYKR.AS) to keep its Saab brand on life-support.

But now that the ink is dry and the champagne put away, the two sides face the sobering reality of one remaining, but knotty issue -- winning the blessing of the Chinese government.

Winning that approval is always a daunting and opaque process, but the outcome this time is particularly uncertain and the decision could prove instructive for future suitors in the auto sector.

Indeed, analysts studying the deal's fine print say a pact that adds one more niche player to China's burgeoning auto industry flies in the face of Beijing's goal of anointing just a few local champions that can compete on a global scale.

"While the deal illustrates the value placed by Chinese companies on European brands, it is highly unlikely that the government will approve such an alliance when it works against China's policies to work toward fewer, stronger national brands," said William Russo, an industry veteran who runs a Beijing-based consultancy called Synergistics.

Even so, both Spyker CEO Victor Muller and Pangda's top boss, Pang Qinghua, are optimistic as Pangda finishes its due diligence review of Saab.

Saab's Trollhatten plant, which had been idle for six weeks after parts suppliers ceased delivery because of unpaid bills, is now up and running again after getting an initial 30 million euro injection from Pangda, a straight product-purchase part of the deal that did not require regulatory approval.

Pangda is already contacting Chinese regulators, including the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), a powerful agency that will decide the fate of Saab. Pang said the talks had been held in "good spirit."

The partners aim to set up a manufacturing venture in China within a year and have 50 Saab sales outlets in place before the end of 2011.

"I am much more optimistic in this particular case that we would be able to get a positive decision," Spyker's Muller told Reuters shortly after announcing the Pangda deal. "We don't need that decision tomorrow. We have time to prepare any questions that the government may have and demonstrate that this is a proper investment.

"In the worst case, we would have a fantastic distribution partner who would sell a tremendous amount of Saabs in this country," Muller added.

Given its track record of handling Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Fuji Heavy Industries' (7270.T) Subaru and other foreign brands in China, Pangda would indeed be a good distribution partner, analysts say.

It is Saab's local manufacturing ambition that remains a big question mark.

INEFFICIENT, UNFOCUSED BRANDS

Even though China surpassed the United States as the world's largest auto market in 2009, China's indigenous auto industry remains weak and highly fragmented. Major Chinese cities are flooded with American, European and Japanese cars.

There have been a few rising domestic stars, such as SAIC Motor Corp (600104.SS), but most home-grown players are still struggling to shed their image as makers of cheap, less-sophisticated models, popular only in smaller, less affluent inland areas.

China could be a lifeline for bankrupt Western brands and a foreign tie may lend an obscure Chinese company more bargaining power amid the government-driven industry reshuffle, observers say.

But a dying brand with a tally of a little over 30,000 units in 2010, roughly 2 percent of Audi's China sales for the year, adds little value to an industry already plagued by too many inefficient, tiny players.

"Saab has been on the ropes for years," said Michael Dunne, president of industry consultancy Dunne & Co Ltd. "It's always been a quirky, niche brand that appeals to a narrow strand of loyal consumers. I'm not sure how much brand punching power Saab would offer a Chinese firm."

The best solution for the Chinese auto industry is to foster a few big, strong players that have the potential to be the next success stories modeled after Toyota Motor (7203.T) and, most recently, Hyundai Motor 005380.SS, who first became dominant players at home and then moved abroad, observers say.

"If you look around, all these big exporters need to be dominating in their home markets first, that's the normal rule," said Scott Laprise, China auto analyst with CLSA.

"It's very rare that could happen if they are inefficient automakers or unfocused brands at home."

SLOW, PAINFUL CONSOLIDATION

Technocrats in Beijing have long envisioned having only a few big but strong national brands, but the industry is still crowded with more than 100 players, some making as few as several thousand units a year.

Ultimately, China will have two or three big auto groups with annual production of more than 2 million vehicles respectively, plus four or five players making more than 1 million vehicles each, according to a blueprint unveiled in 2009.

Consolidation, however, has been slow and painful due to foot-dragging by local governments eager to build their own auto kingdoms.

Brilliance Auto in the northeastern province of Liaoning has successfully torpedoed years of relentless pursuit by larger rival FAW Group (000800.SZ) in the neighboring province, Liaoning's governor, Wang Min, told Reuters in March.

Chery Automobile and Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SS), two mid-sized cross-province rivals in eastern China, are still locked in a head-to-head rivalry despite repeated merger calls by regulators.

After two major reshuffles since 2007, China's top three auto makers, SAIC Motor (600104.SS), Dongfeng Motor Group (0489.HK) and FAW Group, still accounted for less than half of overall national sales in 2010. The ratio is 86 percent in Japan where Toyota alone had 53 percent of the car market.

"China doesn't need more car companies. If we keep going through this process of all these foreign companies running into trouble and Chinese keep buying them, this probably is only going to prolong the pain it needs to go through in the consolidation," said CLSA's Laprise.

MEDIA OUTCRY

China's track record in overseas acquisition has been mixed at best.

Regulators endorsed Geely's $1.5 billion Volvo takeover, which gives the Chinese full control of the famed Swedish marque, but they rejected an attempt by tiny machinery maker Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industries to buy the now defunct Hummer brand in 2009.

In the case of Tengzhong, China's government-directed media gave hints about the outcome. One day after the Hummer deal was announced in June 2009, the state-run Xinhua news agency put out a harshly-worded commentary, warning Tengzhong and others of the consequence of "having their grand dream smashed to pieces" for rushing into dubious and risky deals.

This time, Chinese media are equally critical of the Saab-Pangda tie as well as the earlier engagement with Hawtai that broke up after 10 days. Major financial newspapers and websites carried stories about the NDRC not being very supportive of the Saab tie-up, citing unnamed sources.

Saab's best hope, observers say, is to bring on board a major state-backed Chinese auto group that would have bargaining power with regulators.

But each of the top makers already teamed up with as many as three mainstream global players years ago and would not be easily lured into a Saab tie as a minority shareholder.

Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co (BAIC), which paid $200 million for some of Saab's old platforms in 2009, is seen as a possible candidate.

"BAIC had a chance to buy the company earlier and decided against it. The feeling then was that it could build its own brand into something much more substantial than Saab," said Dunne & Co's Dunne.

"If the price and terms now become super attractive, then you could see BAIC coming back for the brand."

BAIC, which has invested billions to build its own upscale cars based on acquired Saab technologies, declined to comment.

(Additional reporting by Tim Kelly in Tokyo; Editing by Matt Driskill)

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