6.05.2013

Bill Russo to Join Closing Plenary Session at China Automotive Market Development Summit

Chongqing, China, June 6, 2013



美国博斯公司(Booz & Company)高级专家,Synergistics 有限公司创始人、总裁Bill Russo

TOPIC:
China Auto market: Making transition from high growth to sustainable development
China’s auto market has shifted from very strong growth to slower but still healthy growth. The aim of this final session will be to discuss challenges for OEMs, policy makers, dealers and suppliers, and so on during this period of transition and ways to cope with these challenges.
· How should auto enterprises adjust their marketing strategies and operations as we transition to the new market dynamics?
· How can government and policy makers assist the development of the industry and render support for major Chinese and foreign players?
· What do market changes mean to the industry structure and the relationship between different enterprises?

SUN Xiaodong, Vice President, Geely

LIU Zhifeng, Vice President & Sales Division Vice General Manager, Beijing Hyundai Motor Company, China

Dr. Patrick P. Steinemann, Managing Director & co-head of Asia Industrial Investment Banking, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, USA

Bill Russo, Founder and President of Synergistics Limited & Senior Advisor of Booz & Company, USA

Moderated by:
MA Xiaowei, CEO, iautos, China

Click below to read the article on the session from 163.com:

Bill Russo: 政府需引导汽车行业的整合


5.30.2013

全球汽车论坛六月开营销专场 聚焦汽车市场_东莞汽车网

Chongqing, China, June 6, 2013

Click here to read the original posting

首届中国汽车市场发展高峰论坛将在中国汽车名城重庆隆重召开。这一论坛是全球汽车论坛(GAF)框架下系列会议的重要组成部分,以“变革·创新——迎接汽车市场营销新时代”为主题,旨在打造一场专注汽车市场的实战、实用峰会。  此次市场论坛由中国国际贸易促进委员会汽车行业委员会及重庆市人民政府主办,汽车观察杂志协办,清华大学经济管理学院为学术支持单位,并由重庆车展组委会承办,是享誉国内外的全球汽车论坛框架下的专业论坛之一,它专门针对汽车市场发展进行打造,恰逢2013重庆国际车展之前召开。  中国汽车市场发展高峰论坛首次推出就坚持高起点、国际性、专业化和实用性的特色,演讲嘉宾不仅有政府官员、各大汽车企业的营销老总和大的经销商集团的老总,而且在世界范围内广泛邀请知名营销专家、大学教授以及来自银行和咨询机构的权威专家学者,这使得论坛突破了业内人士经验交流的层面,站到了一个更高的、全方位的对汽车市场的审视平台。论坛的议题设计也集中在目前汽车市场的焦点、热点和难点问题,具有很强的实操性。  “中国汽车市场发展高峰论坛旨在引导汽车企业在营销上产生变革和创新,用新的营销理念、策略和方法助力整个汽车产业的可持续发展。”中国国际贸易促进委员会汽车行业委员会会长、全球汽车论坛组委会执行主席王侠说。  首届市场论坛选择在重庆举办,体现了主办方对中西部市场的全新认识。在中国汽车市场整体进入低速增长的同时,一线特大城市和东部沿海经济发达城市的汽车已趋于饱和,而在西部大开发战略带动下的西部地区则成为汽车市场增长的新引擎。作为一个重要的汽车生产基地和中西部区域的连接点,重庆对于西部汽车市场无疑具有无可替代的示范和辐射效应。今年的重庆车展在移师到重庆悦来国际博览中心之后,其规模和影响力取得明显的提升,值此重庆车展期间召开中国汽车市场发展高峰论坛,实乃相得益彰,将有力的推动我国中西部乃至全国汽车市场的理性发展。  据了解,为时一天的会议日程安排非常紧凑,将由2个全体会议和8场平行讨论环节组成,总的有效会议时间超过13个小时,涵盖广泛的议题:中国汽车市场的发展脉络、现状及中长期展望;不同细分市场、不同区域级别市场所带来的机会;数字化营销在微增长时代的作用;奢侈品营销;中高级丛林法则;中国汽车产业海外市场发展机会;市场营销创新:如何通过精益营销和全程营销来提高客户价值;三包:修理、更换、退货责任;汽车经销商行业未来的发展模式;中国汽车市场:高速增长向可持续发展转变等。  

据悉,将有约350名国内外汽车行业市场、销售精英人士、赴会高峰论坛,他们主要来自中国和世界主要汽车厂商、重要汽车零部件制造商、重要汽车经销商集团、汽车销售领域的学科带头专家、中外汽车专业媒体和综合媒体的领军代表及银行和金融机构高管等。  从目前论坛组委会透露的信息来看,绝大部分活跃在中国市场上的主流汽车公司、合资公司的40多位销售及市场的总经理应邀参加。美国诺思伍德大学汽车市场系主任ElgieBright教授、英国亚洲汽车信息机构董事总经理Ashvin Chotai、J.D. Power全球零售体验副总裁Charles Mills、美国博斯公司高级专家Bill Russo、《经济学人》驻华首席代表许思涛、国家信息中心信息资源开发部主任徐长明、美国知名行业记者Alysha Webb、美国美银美林银行亚太区汽车业务董事总经理Patrick P.Steinemann、德勤中国汽车流通行业主管合伙人周永汉、日本高级培训指导专家杉澤正弘等来自八个国家的近20名学者及业界专家都将出席,并和到会代表一起探讨中国汽车市场的变化和挑战,分享成功的市场策略和营销案例,从而达到本论坛“国际视野,中国分享;启迪行业,决胜未来”的设计理念。

5.29.2013

Bill Russo Chairs China CEO Roundtable at J.P. Morgan China Summit 2013

Beijing, China, June 4, 2013



Following a decade of rapid growth that culminated in a stimulus-driven surge in demand in 2009-2010, the China auto market has sharply decelerated, with growth slipping to 2.5% in 2011 and 4.3% in 2012. While China's auto demand will exceed the 20 million unit level in 2013, we can expect to see even more intense competition among automakers as they adjust to a new pattern while maintaining profitability. The aim of this panel is to discuss opportunities and challenges faced by different competitors as they deal with this “inflection point”
  • Opportunities and challenges in luxury and imported vehicles market.
  • Opportunities and challenges in emerging provinces and cities, as well as
    in second and third tier cities.
  • Sales and marketing strategies to exploit these opportunities
  • Strategies to diversify profit streams and maximize profit opportunities
  • Panelists:
    Mr. Karsten Engel, China CEO, BMW
    Mr. Hubertus Troska, China CEO, Daimler
    Mr. John Lawler, China CEO, Ford
    Dr. Joerg Mull, China EVP, Volkswagen
    Chair: Mr. Bill Russo, President, Synergistics Ltd, former Northeast Asia VP, Chrysler
Click here to access the video recording of the panel session:  http://mms.prnasia.com/jpmorgan/20130604/track1/2013_d1_t1_1400.htm


5.23.2013

Bill Russo to Join Panel Discussion at China Automotive Market Development Summit

Chongqing, China, June 6, 2013


TOPIC:  
Exploring opportunities in different market segments and different geographic tiers

As China's auto demand exceeds the 20 million unit level, it is becoming more and more important to segment the market both by product, price and tiers of market. The aim of this panel is to discuss opportunities and challenges faced by different products at different geographic areas in such a huge auto market as China:
  • Key product/price and geographic segments
  • Opportunities and challenges in luxury and imported vehicles market
  • Sales and marketing strategies to exploit these opportunities
  • Opportunities and challenges in emerging provinces and cities, as well as in second and third tier cities

Panelists:


JIANG Chunyong, Chief editor, Chongqing ChenBao, China
Bill Russo, Founder and President of Synergistics Limited & Senior Advisor of Booz & Company, United States
Ashvin Chotai, Managing Director, Intelligence Automotive Asia, UK
YANG Min, BESCAR Co.,Ltd., China


Moderated by:

LIN Hai, Host, Chongqing Traffic Radio, China

Click below to read the summary of the session from auto.sina.com:

汽车细分市场的机会


Summit Program:



5.22.2013

Five reasons why auto world is shifting to emerging markets and what it means for India

The Economic Times of India, May 19, 2013

The dichotomy at times is hard to fathom. The India auto industry closed 2012-13 with a sales dip of 6.7%, the first drop in 12 years. The outlook for 2013-14 isn't much brighter, with industry experts and analysts predicting a growth of 3-5%.

Over the past decade, the demand and hence the manufacturing landscape in the auto world has begun shifting from the developed to the emerging world.
Over the past decade, the demand and hence the manufacturing landscape in the auto world has begun shifting from the developed to the emerging world.
Yet talk to top honchos of auto MNCs and you get a different picture. Honda sees India as an important leg on which global growth rests. Ford Motors CEO Joginder Singh says the Detroit carmaker remains buoyant about the country's long-term potential. Ditto for Nissan and Toyota.

The apparent disconnect between the sales slowdown in India today and auto MNCs' long-term ambitions has a good explanation. Over the past decade, the demand and hence the manufacturing landscape in the auto world has begun shifting from the developed to the emerging world.

Here are five reasons why this shift is happening and what it means for India:


1) The Rise of Asia

According to estimates of Brooking Institution, a US public policy research organisation, the US' and Europe's share of the world's middle class — today at around 50% — will dip to 22% by 2030. In Asia, it will more than double from 30% to 64% by then. This shift is already reflected in the automobile industry.


Five reasons why auto world is shifting to emerging markets and what it means for India

About a decade back, in 2002, Asia's contribution to global production capacity in the automobile industry was 15-20%. Today it accounts for over half. China has become the top country in car sales, beating the US. Auto MNCs, lured by this huge growth potential, are shifting production bases to Asia to be closer to their customers. India with a capacity to produce 3 million cars is the third largest.

With vehicle penetration in India at a low 13 per 1,000 people (compared to 45 per 1,000 for China) and a growing young population, it should soon overtake Korea as the second-largest car producer in Asia, after China.


About a decade back, in 2002, Asia's contribution to global production capacity in the automobile industry was 15-20%. Today it accounts for over half. China has become the top country in car sales, beating the US. Auto MNCs, lured by this huge growth potential, are shifting production bases to Asia to be closer to their customers. India with a capacity to produce 3 million cars is the third largest.



2) Global Platforms, Global Lifecycle

Almost all auto companies are looking to reduce the manufacturing complexity in their product portfolio. They are laying thrust on global platforms — using the same base globally to churn out a range of vehicles. For example, Volkswagen's Polo (a compact) and Vento (a sedan) are based on the same platform. It is now also developing a sub-four metre Vento — on the same platform — specifically for India. It is reportedly considering an MPV and a compact SUV on the same platform.

Increasingly the auto world is seeing a global convergence of the product lifecycle. More and more auto firms are now doing global launches of their products in different markets and also phasing them out simultaneously. For example, Ford EcoSport will soon debut in India as part of its global launch.

"As platforms become globalised, there is less pressure to locate production close to any one market. We're seeing surprisingly strong manufacturing centres developing in North America, particularly the US and Mexico. Of course China, Korea, parts of Southeast Asia and Europe will continue to be strong production hubs," says US-based Jeremy Anwly, vicechairman of Edmunds.com, an auto advisory portal.

3) From High Cost to Low Cost

It helps that production costs in most developed countries like the US, Japan and most western European countries are sharply higher than the emerging markets. Perhaps the only exception is Germany which has maintained its manufacturing edge due to its relentless focus on technology, its thriving manufacturing ecosystem and its focus on high-end cars.

Five reasons why auto world is shifting to emerging markets and what it means for India

As a result, auto MNCs are shifting their production bases from high-cost economies like the US and western Europe to low-cost countries like China and India. Analysts estimate that producing cars in India today may be 15-20% cheaper than in the US. In fact, there are many countries like the Czech Republic and Argentina — with no primary domestic demand — which are emerging as low-cost export hubs for the regions.

"Rather than setting up duplicate production bases, OEMs are increasingly seeking to gain efficiencies and scale by establishing a production base in the most efficient place — where they can minimise cost and maximise revenue," says Beijing-based Bill Russo, senior adviser, Booz & Company, a consultancy firm.

4) FTAs Shift Balance

Many countries are signing regional or bilateral free-trade agreements (FTAs). The US has signed one with Mexico, India has signed with the Southeast Asian countries. India's FTA with EU though has run into a controversy. The US has signed FTAs with a range of countries, including Mexico which is fast emerging as a car export hub in North America. Turkey is also emerging as production hub, partly due to its FTA with countries like Korea.

5) Convergence of Demand & Norms

At a macro level, there is some convergence of the kind of vehicles that consumers in different markets need. Europebased Mark Fulthorpe, senior manager, IHS Global, says environmental and efficiency norms in different countries today are much closer than they ever were in the past. This means companies have to align their cars with policy norms that are in a much narrower band.

Also, globally, there is a clear shift in consumers' preference for smaller, compact and fuel-efficient vehicles, says Haig Stoddard, a veteran auto analyst with US-based Ward's Auto. All this means that auto MNCs have to deal with a far less heterogeneous policy environment and consumer demand — allowing them more room to pick their production location.



5.16.2013

Bill Russo to Address Rutgers University Business School Delegation

Beijing, China, June 1, 2013

Presentation on China and its implications for the global economy to be delivered to students and representatives of the EMBA program at the Peninsula Hotel in Beijing.

5.13.2013

An Odd Corporate Vehicle for Doing Business in China

The Financial Times, May 13, 2013

by Andrew Hill

Guests look at a Buick Riviera Concept 2013 model during the unveiling event ahead of the Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition (AUTO Shanghai) in Shanghai,
Buick Riviera The big attraction on GM’s stand at last month’s auto show in Shanghai, the concept car is the product of a joint venture between Shanghai GM and a separate JV, the Pan Asia Technical Automative Center

In 2010, seven managers from PSA Peugeot Citroën and five from Chang’an Automobile met in Shenzhen, southern China, to lay the groundwork for a new car factory. Three years later, Capsa, a 50-50 joint venture between the French and Chinese companies, is in the final stages of preparing a 1m square metre plant for the September launch of Chinese-made premium cars under the DS brand. “Because we were beginning from a blank sheet, people wanted to make it as perfect as possible,” says Gilles Boussac, Capsa’s president, between meetings with his team of mostly Chinese managers. “So often in China, if you’re trying to rework or improve something, it takes years to achieve.”

But the people who built Capsa have not started from scratch. Their shared enterprise is based on three decades of global car companies’ experience working with Chinese partners.
International car executives are confident such ventures will continue to be the best way to reach Chinese customers, who now buy more than 20m new vehicles annually, making it the world’s largest automobile market. But their enthusiasm for these awkward corporate vehicles, with their unique management challenges, obscures the fact that the path of co-operation has been bumpy.

A shared purpose

From the outset in the 1980s, automotive joint ventures in China were built on hopes of mutual benefit, tinged with mutual suspicion. George Xue of Fudan University’s school of management in Shanghai says they are “central [to] the Chinese economy”. The nation had three main aims in encouraging them: “Developing industry, upgrading technical expertise and enhancing our management level.” International carmakers, meanwhile, were prepared to share their manufacturing technology and knowhow with Chinese state-owned partners in the hope of gaining access, initially via local government contracts, to the wider market.

The joint ventures are odd creations. The largest state-owned carmakers frequently cultivate relationships with non-Chinese rivals. SAIC Motor in Shanghai, for instance, operates 104 joint ventures, including two of the biggest – one with Volkswagen and another with General Motors – as well as its own independent carmaking operations. But these enterprises now have deep roots. Ahead of the auto show in Shanghai last month, Volkswagen celebrated with SAIC the 30th anniversary of the first Chinese-built VW Santana.

From China’s point of view, local production was revolutionised by association with the global companies. The Chinese partners grew large on the back of joint-venture production. At a roundtable at the Boao Forum for Asia last month, Hu Maoyuan, SAIC’s chairman, attributed its “development into a Fortune Global 500 company from a local small company” to the opening of the economy and opportunity to co-operate with global carmakers. The Chinese also appear to value management experience acquired via joint ventures: Mr Hu and his vice-chairman are former presidents of Shanghai GM.

Meanwhile, mutual suspicion has waned. According to G.E. Anderson’s book Designated Drivers, Peugeot’s first, failed venture, with Guangzhou Automotive Manufacturing in the 1980s, was marked by “resentment that, although the Chinese workers were being taught to speak French, there appeared to be no desire on the part of the French expatriates to learn Chinese”. The Chinese also bridled at strict French production methods, while the French did not export the Chinese-made Peugeots, as planned, lest the poor quality hurt their brand. By contrast, Capsa’s managers use English and Chinese – based in part on the fact it is easier to find Chinese-English interpreters.

Volkswagen Santana taxis built by Shanghai Automotive Co. Ltd. are pictured on a road in Shanghai, China, on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2005. Shanghai Automotive Co., China's largest carmaker, plans to sell as much as 8 billion yuan ($1.06 billion) worth of bonds that can be converted into shares to finance acquisitions and car production.
Popular model: Volkswagen Santana taxis first built by the German carmaker and SAIC 30 years ago

Capsa’s Shenzhen plant is hard to distinguish from European or US car factories, though managers boast it is more compact, and therefore likely to be easier to run. It draws on lean manufacturing techniques, such as the use of modular plastic racks and trolleys along the production line. In a negotiation typical of Chinese joint ventures, the French team had to convince its Chinese counterparts such racks would be a better investment than cheaper, but rigid, metal alternatives. To pre-empt potential clashes, Capsa workers were asked to bring their tools to the first training sessions to help integrate their working methods into the planning of the plant.

Ying Zhanwang, executive vice-president, says the joint venture has developed a “one goal, one team, one process” system of production-line excellence based on best practice at Chang’an and Peugeot. It also capitalises on Chang’an managers’ and engineers’ experience working with Mazda and Ford in other joint ventures.

Shanghai GM is the longest-running example of this co-operative approach. In American Wheels, Chinese Roads, Michael Dunne writes about the critical moment, in 1998, when Phil Murtaugh, then general manager of GM’s Shanghai operations, and Mr Hu, at the time his Saic counterpart, laid out a four-point plan for a “kind of co-operation never before witnessed in China’s automotive industry”. It included the requirement that Shanghai GM staff should put the joint venture first, in contrast to the more rigid delineation between German and Chinese managers at rival Shanghai VW.

Kevin Wale, former president of GM China, says all joint ventures are moving towards Shanghai GM’s co-operative style. VW and SAIC set great store, for instance, on forging a closer common culture through initiatives such as Shanghai Volkswagen University, set up last year to train staff in areas such as product development and sales and marketing.

Mr Wale and other analysts also say there is no reason why Shanghai GM’s approach should be more successful than Shanghai VW’s and point out that relations within the GM-SAIC venture are not always harmonious.

Bob Socia, Mr Wale’s successor, says the expatriate roles at Chinese joint ventures are “not easy jobs, because you have lots of bosses”. Trying to look at problems from your partner’s perspective can be draining, Mr Wale adds: “It isn’t a natural phenomenon to always be looking behind the curtain.” As an example, both point to Saic’s insistence on – and GM’s initial resistance to – development of the Chevrolet Sail at a production cost and price level far lower than the Americans were used to.

Maturing partnerships

Since the 1980s, automotive companies have learnt how to tailor old models, and, increasingly, to design new cars to Chinese tastes. Asked what the Chinese have taught them, most expatriate managers refer to their counterparts’ determination to reduce process complexity and costs.

But have the international carmakers applied these lessons or other Chinese-led innovations to their operations in other markets? “Less than they could or should have done,” says Bill Russo, a former Chrysler executive whose Synergistics consultancy now advises companies on building cross-border partnerships.

Hu Maoyuan, chairman of Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. (SAIC), pauses at a news conference in Shanghai, China, on Monday, Sept. 20, 2010. SAIC Motor Corp. said it may invest in the initial public offering of partner General Motors Co., cementing ties between the biggest U.S. and Chinese automakers.
Hu Maoyuan of Saic predicts that it will take years before Chinese-branded cars overtake joint venture models

All joint ventures are “like children growing up”, says Mr Wale. The parents have “to let them stretch where they are capable and slow them down where they need guidance and support”. The children, and their parents, are likely to face further challenges in the coming decade. John Huang, managing partner at Shanghai law firm MWE China, points out: “If competitors form joint ventures – what I call ‘sharing the same bed, with different dreams’ – sooner or later they will have problems.”

In three areas – development of Chinese-branded cars, the export of Chinese-made vehicles and the sharing of intellectual property – Chinese companies, and their political paymasters, have not achieved what they hoped for in the 1980s.

The arrangements were supposed to prompt the development of competitive homegrown models. At the Shanghai show, scores of Chinese brands were on display but non-Chinese marques have the upper hand in the market. This is partly because the Chinese are happy to reap the monetary and industrial rewards from the joint ventures, but also because the Chinese consumer has developed a taste for the international brands.

SAIC’s Mr Hu underlined at the Boao conference that the company was “working on independent research and development . . . and our independent brands are seeing long-term development, not only in terms of the technology level”. He admitted, however, it would require “the efforts of generations” for sales of Chinese-branded petrol and diesel vehicles to surpass those of joint-venture brands.

Not for export

The original joint-venture contracts also made clear that the new enterprises would eventually export their vehicles from China. But one analyst says international companies have deliberately “slow-walked” exports because they could pose a direct competitive threat to their wholly owned subsidiaries in third countries.

At the same time, with a few exceptions – including the Sail, whose intellectual property belongs to GM’s local joint ventures – international companies have been reluctant to share designs with Chinese partners. Most “new” co-owned joint-venture brands are pale versions of older models.

Chinese and foreign partners have a strong shared interest in prolonging their moneymaking ventures. But if China slows, or local brands fail, the demands on joint ventures will intensify, further complicating the management of the world’s largest, but strangest, co-operative enterprises.

In Shenzhen, Mr Boussac’s demanding production programme is on schedule: “At the last board [meeting] everyone was pleased to see that all the planets were aligned: Capsa, [Peugeot], Chang’an.”

The question for most of the automotive joint ventures in China is what will happen if and when the planets no longer line up.
-------------------------------------------

Is your joint venture really necessary?

Shanghai GKN Driveshaft, a car parts venture between GKN of the UK and SAIC, dates from 1988, making it one of the oldest in the sector. Xue Jinda, its managing director, says it combines the “successful characteristics of both Chinese and western parties” – so successful that in 2009 the partners extended it for another 50 years and have just expanded its scope.

But in other industries, where joint ventures are not mandatory, they are usually shorter-lived and, in many cases, may not even be necessary.

Richard Grams, who runs the Shanghai office of Benesch, the US law firm, says very few partnerships work after year three. Often, in that time, “the company has spent as much or more time managing the relationship with the JV partners than they have pursuing the business”.

Unlike the carmakers, which operate via larger, more rigid equity joint ventures, a growing number of international companies in China are now using flexible “contractual” or “co-operative” agreements, under which more than two partners can have different shareholdings, pay-off schedules and objectives. Non-Chinese companies may also prefer to link up selectively with specific local companies for one product or activity – for instance, distribution – rather than for the entire business.

Where there are likely to be large upfront costs, or difficult negotiations with government officials, it makes sense to use a Chinese partner. But John Huang of Chinese law firm MWE China says that since 2000, more foreign groups have set up “woofies”, wholly foreign-owned enterprises, than joint ventures. As Andy Reynolds Smith, GKN’s chief executive of automotive, points out, businesses with many customers lower down the supply chain may find it easier to serve China through a wholly owned subsidiary, as GKN does in the powder metallurgy division he also oversees.