12.20.2014

Chinese Electric-Car Maker BYD’s Shares Plunge

The Wall Street Journal, December 18, 2014


A BYD Co. electronic vehicle is charged at an EV charging station at the company's campus in the Pingshan district of Shenzhen, China, Aug. 5, 2014. Bloomberg News
By Colum Murphy
SHANGHAI—An executive at Warren Buffett -backed BYD Co. defended its business prospects after shares in the Chinese electric-car maker fell as much as 47% on Thursday.

In a conference call late Thursday, company secretary Qian Li said BYD’s operations were normal despite the share plunge and sought to dispel what he called rumors about the company. BYD’s Hong Kong-traded shares regained some ground later Thursday and finished at 25.05 Hong Kong dollars (US$3.23), down 29%.

Mr. Li described rumors circulating in the market about BYD—including suggestions that its founder and chairman had been arrested—as “ridiculous” and urged investors to ignore them.

He also dismissed talk of BYD having large exposure to the troubled Russia market, describing the company’s investment in that country as “very small.”
BYD also produces mobile-phone components and solar panels.

Asked whether the price movement could be related to a selloff in shares by Mr. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway investment vehicle, Mr. Li said BYD had been in recent contact with Mr. Buffett but there was no sign that Mr. Buffett was considering a sale. He added BYD didn’t reach Mr. Buffett on Thursday due to the time difference between China and the U.S.

Berkshire Hathaway owns a roughly 9% stake in BYD, according to previous company filings, including about one-quarter of its Hong Kong-traded shares. In the Chinese city of Shenzhen, BYD’s shares fell about 10% on Thursday, the daily limit.

In October, BYD reported a third-quarter profit drop of 26% and said it expects this year’s profit to fall by up to 22%. Auto-sales growth in China has slowed in recent months amid a broader drop in China’s economic momentum.

Overall in the first 11 months of 2014, BYD has sold 384,977 vehicles, down from 458,042 vehicles sold in the same period the year before—a 16% drop, according to data from research firm IHS Automotive.

While the company frequently touts its line of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids—vehicles that can run on both gasoline and electricity—it relies heavily on sales of traditional gasoline engine cars for the lion’s share of its automotive revenue.

Bill Russo, managing director of consulting firm Gao Feng Advisory, said BYD, like many other Chinese car brands, need to create a brand that appeals to Chinese consumers. “It has to go beyond just being a cheap car,” he said. 

Mr. Li said BYD faces “hot competition” and decreasing margins in the traditional car market in China but said it was transforming into a manufacturer of new-energy vehicles.

China has a long-stated goal of reducing its dependency on imported oil by promoting new-energy vehicles, including passenger cars and buses. China wants half a million such vehicles on the road by next year and 10 times that by the end of the decade.

But in the first nine months of this year, fewer than 40,000 electric vehicles were sold in China, according to data from the government-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Around three quarters of these were passenger cars. By comparison, around 14.2 million conventional passenger cars were sold in the period.

IHS Automotive researcher Namrita Chow said the high cost of replacing batteries, lack of adequate charging infrastructure and range anxiety—where buyers worry about how far they can travel on a single charge—are all obstacles in the path to high sales growth rates.

She said that BYD had doubled sales of its pure electric e6 car to 2,203 vehicles in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. Sales for the hybrid Qin had so far reached just over 11,000 vehicles in its first year on sale.

Mr. Li dismissed talk that the Chinese government could be reducing its support of new-energy vehicles, including buses, saying BYD continued to see good order flow for them. “We’re confident on the future of electric buses,” Mr. Li said.
A nearly 50% drop in oil prices over the past six months has pressured green stocks in a number of areas.

“With the oil price down, the global outlook for electric vehicles looks very different from just a couple of months ago,” said Jochen Siebert, a Shanghai-based managing director at JSC Automotive Consulting. “BYD’s electric and hybrid car business will likely be impacted,” he added. 

Write to Colum Murphy at colum.murphy@wsj.com

福特SUV,江铃造

CBN Weekly, November 13, 2014


当福特遭遇增长放缓的“天花板”时,一款新车投放或许能够缓解它目前的困境—但并不足够。

  对于眼下的福特来说,没有什么比一款新车型的到来更及时了。

  11月13日,福特在北京全球首发一款新SUV车型撼路者(Everest)。有些与众不同的是,这款SUV将由福特在华合资企业—江铃福特生产,并授权其渠道销售。

  福特在华的两个合资公司—长安福特和江铃福特,此前一直分工明确:前者主攻乘用车市场,后者则经营商用车。

  近两年,福特堪称在华进步最快的汽车公司之一。今年前10个月,其在中国销量为90.66万辆,而2012年,这一数字仅为62.7万辆。

  不过最近,“进步最快”的福特似乎也碰到了“天花板”。9月,福特在华销量9.6万辆,同比下降0.2%,结束了连续28个月的增长。销量回落的主要原因是产能。按照规划,2015年年底,长安福特的年产能将达到120万辆,但至今,近一半的目标还未兑现。

  在此背景下,福特与江铃的合作就颇值得玩味。2011年,福特推出“1515”战略,计划到2015年在中国投放15款新车型。看起来,福特已意识到,单靠长安福特以及其位于重庆的第三工厂,无法完成这一规划。

  “正在加速扩张的福特没有理由不调动江铃的资源。”咨询机构思略特公司合伙人彭波对《第一财经周刊》说。

  2010年,福特开始与江铃在乘用车方面展开合作。2013年,福特将其在江铃汽车(32.10, -0.79, -2.40%)的股份从30%提升至32%。“未来,福特汽车将与江铃汽车构建更紧密的合作关系。”在撼路者的发布会上,福特中国董事长兼CEO罗礼祥(John Lawler)表示。

  同时,撼路者的推出也意味着福特正在谋求更深入地进入SUV细分市场。

  在过去几十年里,汽车制造商抛弃了传统巨无霸式的SUV,不断改变其尺寸和底盘、外观设计,以满足城市购车者的出行需要。空间紧凑和油耗更低的本田CR-V以及丰田RAV4都是这种趋势的代表。福特和通用在中国推出的翼博(ECO-Boost)和别克昂科拉(Encore)也都获得了成功。

  而撼路者定位于中大型SUV,2850mm的轴距,柴油发动机技术,源自福特皮卡车型Ranger的底盘。“中型SUV细分市场是中国也是全球成长最快的领域,”罗礼祥对《第一财经周刊》说,“我们相信这款产品一定能够在市场上寻找到自己的市场需求和亮点。”

  更重要的是,翼博、翼虎,再加上现在的撼路者,福特在中国已全面覆盖小型、紧凑型和中大型SUV市场。“SUV方面,福特已经超过了通用。它正在中国塑造一个SUV领导者的形象。”高风咨询公司董事总经理Bill Russo对《第一财经周刊》说。在中国,“SUV市场领导者”可是个含金量不小的标签。

  尽管在商用车领域,江铃还算成功,但除了一款月销量不足3000辆的自主SUV品牌驭胜,它并无太多乘用车的生产销售经验。要让一个长于经营商用车的公司在乘用车上取得成功,还是要冒不小的风险。

  撼路者将在江铃位于南昌的小蓝基地生产。这个基地拥有一座年产30万辆SUV的工厂,以及一座年产20万台汽油发动机的工厂。同时,撼路者所搭载的柴油发动机与江铃主打的商用车型全顺相同,也可在江铃量产。这些生产线全部符合福特全球标准。

  除了在中国销售,撼路者还将出口到亚太地区的一部分国家进行销售。欧洲和美国汽车消费市场仍经历着销售疲软,亚太地区则是福特近来业绩表现最为优秀的地区,印度、泰国未来都可能成为这款车型出口的区域市场。

  从产品本身看,撼路者与江铃原有消费群对接也不算困难。全顺的消费者大都是二三线城市的小企业,强调载物和越野能力的撼路者应该同样能满足它们的需求。

  但正如彭波所说:“卖全顺,只要价格够实惠,消费者就会掏钱,而卖SUV,销售员的态度、服务质量都很重要。”

  撼路者首发后的第二天,在上海市闵行区的上海九和汽车江铃4S店中,还看不到任何关于这辆车的介绍。

  在大约是乘用车4S店一半面积的展厅里,经典款全顺和新一代全顺仍占据中心位置—这两款车依然是上个月的销量冠亚军。两名销售顾问正在向一位住在城郊的私营业主介绍两代全顺的差别。而展厅的另一边,驭胜的展车上则摆放着“全系降价6000元”的广告牌—江铃经销渠道目前的硬件和服务标准,似乎还无法与定价25万元以上的撼路者匹配。

  江铃汽车总裁陈远清已经公布了渠道改造计划:未来,会增加40%的江铃经销商,并对已有经销商的服务流程进行升级,以符合全球乘用车销售流程上的规范,而全顺与撼路者的销售将由两个团队分别进行。

  计划能否奏效,就要看经销商的执行力了。“过去几年,凭借全顺的热销,江铃的经销商得到了很多实惠,现在要卖更赚钱的乘用车了,它们应该有能力也有意愿进行升级。”彭波说。

  目前,这款SUV还未正式公布售价,考虑到上市时间设定在明年,江铃和福特还有时间准备。

  而对于长安福特和江铃福特这两个合作伙伴,福特称,将为它们制定“双赢的成长计划”。虽然并未透露计划的细节,但平衡两家合资公司利益的方式可能是产品线。“福特必须持续向两个合作伙伴投放足够多的车型。”Russo分析说。

  罗礼祥曾说,福特目前在中国的首要目标是要保持“激进、富有雄心的增长”。

  所以,对于福特来说,如何在长安福特和江铃福特的天平两端调整砝码,还并不是一个迫切的问题。目前,在中国市场作为追赶者的它,首要任务仍是不断地增加砝码—无论这些砝码增加到天平的哪一端。