7.12.2013

PSA有意向东风出售30%股份 分析称谈判艰难

China Business News, July 11, 2013

PSA出售股权将是一场艰难漫长的谈判,但欧洲主流汽车公司与中国第二大汽车集团产生关联,必然会给全球汽车业带来震动。

  文|CBN记者 宁华 张晶

  资料整理|张鑫 张嵩浩 华薇薇

  PSA有意向东风汽车集团出售30%股份的消息,令汽车业的其他新闻失去了吸引力,也让在逐渐放缓的中国市场为销量绞尽脑汁的汽车业人士可以暂时从枯燥的数字中抽身。

  这则消息最早是路透社于6月27日披露出来的,并在几天后开始被中国媒体引用。消息如此突然,以至于PSA在华合资公司的职员也得向亚太区总部打探消息,最后他们得到了跟新闻界一样的答案:还没有任何正式消息。

  PSA在欧洲是第二大汽车公司,仅次于大众,而东风则是中国第二大国有汽车集团,按照整体销售额计算,东风去年能排到福布斯汽车业排行榜的第11位。正因如此,即便双方的接触仅仅是个开始,距离最终完成交易还相去甚远,也具有足够的爆炸性。

  前克莱斯勒东北亚区副总裁、现任博斯咨询公司高级专家Bill Russo在接受《第一财经周刊》采访时说“完成交易将非常复杂而且旷日持久。除了交易价格的谈判之外,双方必须寻求各自董事会通过,交易同时需要得到中法两国政府的认可—所有这一切都非常耗时。”

  法国《世界报》长期跟踪报道PSA的记者Philippe Jacqué告诉《第一财经周刊》,这毫无疑问会令欧洲汽车业为之震动。“如果东风获得PSA的控制权,将意味着标志家族一段200年的故事结束,但东风只是如果少量持股,那不过是PSA故事的一个新插曲。”他说。

  7月2日,PSA监事会主席Thierry Peugeot出现在合资公司第三工厂的剪彩仪式上,给传闻增添了一丝真实性。一位东风内部人士透露,之前PSA因资金压力考虑停止类似于空气混合动力这样的先进技术开发时,东风还曾表示愿意投入资金接手,让开发工作能够继续。这足以说明东风对PSA充满兴趣。

  另一位接近东风汽车高层的前员工告诉《第一财经周刊》,早在2011年PSA就曾主动找过东风,询问后者是否有兴趣入股。东风的条件是不满足于仅仅成为投资者,希望在技术上有更多的合作,而PSA不愿失去对公司的控制。

  这些原则在PSA与东风的此次谈判中同样适用,但PSA的情况在过去两年持续恶化令情况发生转变。简单来说,PSA更缺钱了。

  从事并购法律咨询工作的法国德垣律师事务所创建人石仁林对《第一财经周刊》表示,从法律上讲,控股权和投票权原则上是可以分离的。因为投票权的不同,一些股东的权力被放大,一些股东的权力受到限制。如果投票权一直掌握在标致家族手中,东风汽车入股的意义不大,因为不能实际行使权力。仅仅持有股权而无投票权,意味着成为金融股东,只参与利润分配。但以PSA目前的状况,并没有利润可供分配。“因此,我想这笔交易不会以这种方式进行。”

  过去一年,PSA花光了30亿欧元的运营现金流,市值从2002年的超过200亿欧元锐减至不足25亿欧元。现在它正以每月2亿欧元的速度在烧钱。预计2014年还将消耗15亿欧元。按照这样的现金消耗速度计算,PSA持有的73亿欧元最多还可以维持企业运营两年。眼下或许PSA不需要现金,但从长期而言,为保证技术研发以及2016至2017年正常发布,PSA肯定需要大量新资金的注入。

  Bill Russo说:“考虑到目前的财务状况,PSA最需要的就是寻求新的资本来源。为了支持接下来的商业计划,它必须尽快在今年就注入资本。”

  欧洲市场的萎缩令所有主流汽车公司都受到影响,但由于PSA的业务核心主要集中在欧洲,占到总销量六成以上,因此它受到的打击最为致命。

  去年PSA总共销售了约300万辆汽车,净亏损50亿欧元,其中中国和拉美两个主要海外市场分别销售了44万辆和11万辆,这样的海外销售比例显然无法给PSA带来足够的灵活性。

  Philippe Jacque评论说:“随着欧债危机的发生,PSA在法国、西班牙、意大利的销量大幅萎缩,失去和其他汽车制造商较量的根基。PSA不同于有其他强劲市场的大众,也比不上拥有美国克莱斯勒的菲亚特,或者是有日产可以依赖的雷诺,它孤立无援,只能依赖自身。”

  PSA的问题从2000年那一轮扩张开始就已经埋下了伏笔。

  菲利普·瓦兰的前任CEO当时制定了400万辆的销售目标,并随之将生产规模扩大至能够实现这一目标。问题在于,从纺织业起家的保守的标志家族将公司定位于一流的欧洲汽车公司,而非全球性汽车公司。1976年收购雪铁龙组建起PSA集团后,标志家族还花费了大量资金收购股票来保证控制权。公司甚至曾与一些竞争对手,比如丰田和菲亚特达成一次性交易,出售整条产品线来保持公司独立性不受损。

  2008年金融危机发生的时候,法国的PSA和雷诺均受到重创。法国政府向这两家公司施以援手,向他们贷款数十亿欧元,推出“以旧换新”计划来帮助它们在法国维持销量。与此同时,PSA和雷诺都在压缩成本并推迟了对新车的投资。这些措施一开始看起来成效不错,雷诺和标致一度复苏,到了2010年两家公司都开始盈利,它们甚至提前偿还了政府贷款。但是从那之后,雷诺继续稳健的策略,而PSA重新开始投资新项目,最典型的例子是在中国的产能扩张。

  PSA在这一轮欧洲危机中受创比雷诺更严重的另一个原因是,雷诺有低端入门型产品可以维持销量,而PSA主要销售尺寸更大的主流车型。

  产能过剩和成本过高是PSA急需解决的两大问题,PSA法国工厂的开工率现在只有71%。为了降低成本,PSA要在2015年前裁员1.1万人,关闭一间位于巴黎北部的工厂,并与通用汽车合作降低研发和采购成本。此外,它还需要在中国、拉美和俄罗斯这些新兴市场扩张,以及在欧洲进入高端市场来获取更多的销售利润。

  但是这些措施要么因为法国政府的援助和工会的介入无法顺利实施,要么需要新的投资。

  Philippe Jacque透露说,这些天来巴黎每个去PSA总部的银行家都会提出他们的解决方案以及对未来种种可能的见解。看上去东风与通用汽车都已经与PSA进行过接触,不排除PSA还在与其它汽车公司接触的可能。

  “有一个法国咨询公司受雇于法国政府,提出了一个针对PSA的解决方案。这是一份机密文件,我没看过,但我知道方案的结论,即通用汽车是更好的选择。”Philippe Jacque说。

  目前看来,通用和东风是最有可能的买家。前者已经与PSA进行合作,东风则是PSA在最重要的海外市场的合资伙伴。虽然通用汽车已经明确表示不再购入PSA股份,但也不排除这是一种谈判技巧,以尽量低的代价获得更多利益。

  标志家族恐怕已经意识到,失去对PSA的控制权只是时间问题,他们目前持有25.4%的股份和38.1%的投票权,因此选择一个适合的买家至关重要。

  Bill Russo认为,选择东风的好处在于,可以由此拓展技术研发、品牌管理和销售渠道。显而易见,PSA未来的成功依赖于中国市场的持续扩张。东风对于PSA业务的直接投入,将能够确保双方共同在这个重要市场进行业务扩张。PSA亚洲区负责人Gregoire Olivier曾预测中国可能在2015年超过法国成为PSA销量最大的市场。

  中国已经成为PSA在全球的第二大市场。今年上半年,神龙汽车的销量为27.7万辆,同比增长了33%。这明显高于中国乘用车市场的增长率,后者的增长率为14%。PSA在中国的强劲增长,有利于帮助其分担欧洲市场的风险和压力。而东风汽车也能通过合作提升技术研发能力,品牌管理能力和销售能力。

  而通用的优势在于双方在产品研发,采购和生产运营中的协同效应。通用已经投入4.23亿美元购入PSA集团7%的股权,并共同组建了采购和研发的协作平台。一旦能够完成股权收购,通用在欧洲的子公司欧宝还可以与PSA共同使用一些工厂,化解产能过剩。

  欧洲媒体普遍看好通用。但是巴克莱银行的分析师认为通用汽车和PSA进一步合作的可能性不大。他称,开始的那笔投入看上去是个错误,进一步注资“是在填无底洞”。通用汽车今年2月公布的财务数据显示,结盟一年来,PSA股票价格下跌了50%,通用汽车所持的7%股权价值损失了2.12亿美元。

  如果继续注资对通用汽车而言是“无底洞”,随之而来的一个疑问是东风作为一家从未有过全球化运作和先进技术开发经验的公司如何能化险为夷?

  吉利收购沃尔沃或许是个正面案例,但这两者的情况略有不同。沃尔沃是被吉利完全收购的。而东风可能只是购入PSA的一些股份,其他股东依然保留。

  “一旦交易完成,对于东风和PSA都意味着更为复杂的配置。因为双方都有目标不一的政府投资者。吉利是个独立的汽车制造商,决策相对东风这种国企来说更为直接,我相信对于东风和PSA来说,任何业务的合作都会充满挑战。东风需要能确保PSA重组全球业务来实现盈利,与此同时增加自己在中国的投资。”Bill Russo说。

  由于东风在中国同时还与日产、雷诺、起亚等全球性汽车公司建有合资企业,这些都是PSA的直接竞争对手,因此拥有一家公司,同时还能了解到大量竞争对手的机密信息看起来也是一件非常奇怪的事情。

  由于法国政府的介入以及东风的背景背景,这桩交易的复杂程度还超出了公司管理和技术层面。整个股权转让过程必然要经过法国政府的许可。

  PSA在新技术专利方面是法国第一,法国政府无疑想留住这笔珍贵的资产,打算进一步提供资助。因此政府阻挠了PSA关闭工厂、裁员等举措。政府还派前空中客车母公司EADS的首席执行官Louis Gallois为PSA顾问小组的独立管理者,进入公司董事会,以此作为资助PSA的一个条件。

  至于风险,法国政府会担心PSA的核心技术转让问题,以及工作岗位的外流。鉴于通用与PSA的关系,前者可能也会担心类似的问题。

  石仁林说:“目前我们看到的只是谣言,对时间的估算必须从签订第一个意向书开始,如果能一直往前走,通常情况下,交易完成快则半年,慢则一年。”

  这其中涉及到实地对资产考察、技术和财务上的审查,即便双方签订了股权转让协议,还需要获得工会和政府的同意,调集资金,替换掉原有的一些资金担保,完成人事安排和股权交割。

  Bill Russo说:“和东风的这笔交易得到许可的漫长过程可能无法满足PSA日常运营的紧迫性。PSA必须寻求多个资金来源,不可能完全倚赖与东风达成交易。”

  石仁林还表示,作为外国股东,最大的阻力可能来自于工会。西方国家的独立工会号召力强,而且谈判经验丰富。对于中国这种正在发展的国家,收购之后的重心转移可能会带来严重后果。

  单从商业层面考虑,让其他国家的公司成为PSA新股东并非坏事,近年来的成功案例往往来自于亚洲公司对传统欧美公司的收购。塔塔与捷豹、路虎的合作非常顺利,上汽集团通过购买荣威和名爵获得了技术并成功地扩大了销量,吉利收购沃尔沃还有待观察,但双方在新车型开发和中国工厂上也取得了显着进展。

  无论PSA与东风的交易最终能否实现,都再一次表明,市场转移给庞大的汽车业带来的影响。大众抓住中国市场挑战丰田和通用,除销量外用任何指标衡量它都已经是实际上的全球第一。通用则借助中国市场从破产重组中成功复兴。对于中国汽车公司来说,这样的机会在接下来的10或20年里肯定会反复出现。

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7.07.2013

Amaze works wonders for Honda's brand makeover, more launches lined up

The Economic Times of India, June 16, 2013


Hironori Kanayama, President of Honda Cars India, Ltd.


The plush showroom in Noida is abuzz. Monthly footfalls have surged from 200 early this year to about 500. From worrying about poor sales, the dealer is now grappling with a three-month-long waiting list. Business hours are often extended and not just at the Noida dealership to manage the customer surge.

It wasn't always this way for Honda Cars India Ltd (HCIL). A slew of missteps from mispricing premium hatchback Jazz, to ignoring the mass market and, subsequently the diesel segment when the price differential with petrol widened coupled with a few natural calamities elsewhere like an earthquake in Japan and floods in Thailand hit HCIL hard. Between fiscal years 2007 and 2013, market share steadily dropped from a peak of 4.44% to a low of 2.74%. Volkswagen's Vento and Hyundai's Verna eroded Honda's leadership position in sedans, where the City once ruled the roost; and models like the Hyundai Elantra and Toyota Camry began giving Honda's Civic and Accord a run for their money in the executive sedan and premium sedan segments, respectively.

"Honda was an aspirational brand, rich in features and looks. But it also came across as an overpriced and highly decontented [industry terminology for removal of features] vehicle," says V Ramakrishnan, managing director at Frost & Sullivan India, a consultancy firm. The short point: Honda wasn't getting anything right: neither product, nor price nor positioning.

It required just one launch to turn things around. The Amaze, launched just two months ago, has helped HCIL, according to SIAM, jump one place to No. 5 in May, ending the month with a share of 5.63% of the Indian car market. With total sales of 11,342, HCIL's sales grew 9.8% in May over a year ago in a sluggish market where competitors like Maruti (decline of 13%), Toyota (decline of 35%) felt the brunt.

"This is our counterattack. Amaze is our first weapon. We have many more," says HCIL CEO Hironori Kanayama. Adds Jnaneshwar Sen, senior V-P (sales & marketing): "We have managed to hit the sweet spot."

It may be just one model that has reversed HCIL's fortunes, but to create that winning product called for a complete overhaul of the company's DNA an exercise that began two years ago.

Thinking Frugal

Honda's biggest challenge was to learn new and cheaper ways to develop and produce cars in India. Earlier, Honda developed global models and then tried to localise for each new market. For the Amaze, inputs from India began trickling in right from the beginning of the R&D process.

Between the Brio hatchback launched in 2011 and the Amaze, HCIL worked aggressively to contain costs by developing local vendors without compromising on quality.

From 102 vendors at the pre-Brio stage, HCIL's vendor base has now grown to over 200 (the majority of them non-Japanese), helping Honda achieve 92% localisation. Aditya Auto is one of HCIL's newer vendors, which began working with the carmaker three years ago. HCIL was looking for a cost-efficient way to produce window regulator systems in India that met its quality parameters. It had traditionally used a wire type rope mechanism that was imported from Thailand but was costly.

"Honda gave us targets and asked us to give them solutions. We fundamentally changed the design of the window regulator," says Mihir Jayaraman, the vendor's business unit head. In the process, Jayaraman also brought the cost down by 35%. The decade old vendor, which has annual revenues of Rs 250 crore, now also supplies to Honda Thailand.

City vs Amaze Buyers

HCIL also reworked its branding and marketing strategy. It began by first understanding how the Amaze buyers would be different from say a City buyer. The latter is typically a well-todo discerning customer who enjoys the finer aspects of life, for whom brand is important, who is a trendsetter (and hence experimental) and has reached a certain status hence takes certain things for granted.

The Amaze buyers, HCIL reckoned, would be more conservative, seeking products that offer peace of mind; that meant not just an affordable price tag but also a reasonable cost of ownership. For them, status, comfort and safety are important. Also, more Amaze owners would tend to drive their cars than City owners; and more of them would be in Tier II cities.

That's one big reason for HCIL expanding in smaller cities from 150 outlets in 90 cities to 162 in 102 by the end of this fiscal year. Alongside, the showrooms, which have always been plush and spacious with plenty of glass and chrome are getting an informal touch. Now salesmen in T-shirts add a touch of warmth and casualness to the customer care experience. "We learnt a lot from the Brio. We want customers to get the Honda brand experience with a more warm and approachable feel," says Sen.


In an attempt to change the traditional customer base from chauffeur-driven to ownerdriven, HCIL has spruced up the owners' lounge at its service centres by enlarging it and adding more facilities like PCs, TVs, and snacks and coffee counters.

To change the perception that Honda is an expensive brand and only for sophisticated (City) customers, HCIL has introduced a Rs 9,996 maintenance package for up to two years or 40,000 km. "The Amaze compares well with the Dzire on maintenance costs," adds Sen.

Brand Makeover

Honda also rejigged its advertising and marketing strategy. "Honda had a very inward-looking mentality," says an advertising executive who has worked on the Honda brand for close to five years. The decisions were largely driven by Japanese expats whose understanding of India and Indians was often poor. "Its ad campaigns were very English, very conservative, very print-driven and often did not realise the power of TV in India," adds the adman who did not want to be named.

Traditionally, Honda believed that technology lay under the bonnet and hence stressed on engineering excellence. "But the Koreans changed the game from being what's under the bonnet to equally about what's on the dashboard. But Honda was cussed, stubborn about it," recalls the executive. It would show more car angles than consumer benefits. So the brand became inaccessible even as other companies like VW came and created a marketing buzz.

"The reins are now with the Indians. I haven't met the Japanese even once," says an ad executive working on the Amaze account. HCIL's typical ads were high on gloss, with brochures and designs that were very European with skyscrapers in the backdrop. Even the Brio campaign "It loves you back" was for an English speaking audience.

In contrast, the Amaze campaigns showcase a slice of a regular Indian's life, with kite flying, Holi colours and India Gate thrown in. And they're now TV-driven. The ad film was shot in two settings — one in the north and the other in the south and has been dubbed in 14 Indian languages to cater to a very heterogeneous market. The objective clearly was to have an imagery similar to that of Maruti's advertising. "Their campaigns suggest they have got the insight right. They have become a friendlier brand," says Naresh Gupta, managing partner, Bang in the Middle, a boutique advertising firm. Gupta, an ex-Dentsu executive, had worked on the Honda account earlier.

The Global View

HCIL's newfound drive in India ties in with its global ambitions. By 2017, Honda is looking at sales volumes of 6 million cars with emerging markets bringing in half of them.

Getting the India act together is an imperative particularly when Honda is struggling in the other emerging market that matters, China, where its market share has slipped from 5.5% in 2008 to 3.2%. "Honda made a strategic misstep in China in 2008 mainly by scaling back its expansion plan after the financial crisis; it was illprepared for the soaring demand in China that followed post-2008," says Bill Russo, a senior adviser at consultancy Booz & Co.

Back in India, it is still early days, but HCIL will take heart from one statistic: some 88% of the customers who visited Honda showrooms to check out the Amaze had never owned a Honda car. "The Amaze is bringing a lot of new customers into the Honda fold. It is a great source of future business for us," says Sen. And roughly a third of Amaze customers are from Tier II cities.

What has always been HCIL's trump card is that those who bought Honda cars had few problems with them. In the JD Power rankings on parameters like customer satisfaction and product quality, it's always been ranked amongst the top 2.

"Honda may not have the sales but it always enjoyed great equity among Indian consumers," says Mohit Arora, executive director, JD Power Asia Pacific. "Now, with new models they are fixing their biggest problem of the right product-price equation. Maruti should be seriously worried," he adds.


Subhabrata Ghosh, CEO, Celsius 100, a consulting firm focussed on the auto sector, says the task of moving down the price spectrum is easier than going bottom-up. "Honda is a socially aspirational and emotionally satisfying brand. It is not very difficult for a brand like that to come down a step below and become accessible to a broader set of customers." In contrast, Maruti has found it tougher to move from the mass market into more exclusive segments.

There will be new challenges along the way. For instance, the new set of customers will use their cars more conservatively than Honda's earlier buyers of the more premium cars; Amaze buyers will look for a replacement only after 5-7 years as against the more affluent City customer who will typically buy a new car after 3-5 years, says Ghosh. At the same time, with more customers coming from smaller cities, where road conditions may not be the best, there could be compromises on preventive maintenance.

Even as HCIL succeeds in expanding its customer base, its famed attributes of maintaining quality and reliability will be tested like never before. The Makeover...

More launches
After the Amaze and a diesel engine, new launches include an MPV, SUV and diesel variants by 2015

More investments
Rs 2,500 crore to double manufacturing capacity to 2.4 lakh by 2014

More local vendors
Vendor base is up from 102 in the pre-Brio phase to 200-plus now to boost localisation and control costs

Sharper India thrust
Y Matsumoto, in charge of development, production (Asia, Oceania) drafted to India to beef up local expertise

Sharper brand message
From English ad campaigns, ads now have an Indian touch and are in seven local languages; dealers & customer care have been re-jigged accordingly

Sharper dealer connect
From a decentralised set up, a new software now connects all dealers giving Honda real-time customer & complaints data

Savvier service
Owners' lounge at service centres being spruced up to cater to new buyers



CEO Speaks On Honda India's biggest challenge: We are weak on our cost competitiveness. We are improving it but we need to work on it harder.


On market share: Our target is not just to become big in India or grow our market share. We want to be the most trusted company. We want to expand our universe in India but also maintain and further increase our quality and customer care.

On Honda India and its global relevance: India is a very unique market, very different than even other emerging markets. Half the market here is of hatchbacks. I am not sure how transportable to other markets are the lessons we learn here. We do not have big export plans - not more than 10%.

On his management style: I have my food in the plant canteen. I queue up and often have Indian food. My rationale is if my people are looking left, I cannot look right. That is wrong. It creates hurdles. I have to be part of them. We need to move in the same direction. I often do direct meetings with people below to get their views.

On his toughest challenge: When I went to Honda China, quality, sales and service was a huge concern in 1998. We used to import Accords then. By the time I left we were exporting cars to Europe. Our quality there became world-class.

Click here to read the article at The Economic Times of India