1.21.2012

"Competing for the Global Middle Class" Selected Among Best New Research and Ideas

Thought Leadership Digest, January 2012


Ron Haddock, Bill Russo and Ed Tse’s article "Competing for the Global Middle Class" was featured in this January 2012 digest of the best new research and ideas for strategy leaders.

The purpose of our digests is to make it easier for business leaders to find the best research and ideas. Every month, we
trawl the websites of about 30 of the world’s leading consulting firms looking for the latest thought leadership. What we
find, which now totals over 20,000 articles, we categorise by sector and service line, and make available – with supporting
analysis – via a searchable database which we call White Space. In the process of doing so, we get a very good sense of
what’s being said in any particular business area, and which the best quality pieces of thought leadership are. This allows
us to present time-pressed managers with a summary of the things that really merit their attention.

Competing for the global middle class Booz & Company
They say: In a variety of industries, corporate leaders are discovering that they must rethink their product and
service lines, go-to-market strategies, and operating models to build a presence in emerging economies.

We say: A good starting point for the conversation all boards should surely be having about the large and growing
middle-class market in emerging economies.


1.16.2012

Competing for the global middle class

Business Intelligence Middle East, January 16, 2012


Source: Booz & Company , Author: Ronald Haddock, Edward Tse, Bill Russo, Karl Nader
Posted: Mon January 16, 2012 10:50 am


UAE. The time has come for senior executives to take the plunge and override their hesitancies about the idea of joining the race for the global middle class market share; without the loyalty of this key segment, they may be left out in the cold as their competitors vie for industry leadership. Thought leader Booz & Company explores the options. 

In 2011, the worldwide economic phenomenon that is known as the global middle class included between 700-900 million people, all of whom had the purchasing power to become consumers of manufactured goods and services.
There is one common denominator across each country in which this demographic can be found: they are all recovering from the global recession with an increasingly urbanized lifestyle.

The value chain of companies that provide this population with goods, services and infrastructure is becoming known as the global middle market. Competing for their share are three different types of company - the local upstarts who are migrating into the domestic middle market as their customers become more prosperous; the global aspirants, who have already developed products for their domestic middle market, and who are looking to expand into the global equivalent, and the multinational incumbents intent on adapting their existing product lines to capture the attractive growth opportunities in emerging middle markets.

“An intelligent approach will allow local upstarts and global aspirants to move up in the corporate chain. Transitional moves, such as joint ventures and regional expansion, aid their advancement by proffering the experience required to compete on a larger scale,” commented Ronald Haddock, a former partner at industry management consultancy, Booz & Company.
No matter which of the three categories they fall into, companies looking to tap into the lucrative global middle market can draw inspiration from Alfred P. Sloan Jr’s reorganisation of General Motors Company in the 1920s; by targeting the consumers in the middle finance-zone (those who were unable to afford luxury vehicles but wanted an option other than the ‘any colour so long as it’s black’ Model T Ford), he propelled GM past the competition to take the leadership spot among carmakers and held that position for the rest of the century.

Recognising the pace of development in the target markets is the first step towards claiming a stake and taking that all-important step up onto the leadership ladder. All industrialising countries follow an ‘arc of growth’, an evolutionary path of economic change that takes them from nascent to mature, with a critical stage of urbanisation and economic momentum in between.

Countries in the ‘momentum phase’ have large, relatively young populations and high economic growth rates, making them the seedbed of the emerging middle-class markets.

“The buying power, needs and desires of the middle class varies dependent upon nation and region, so obtaining a full understanding of the local requirements in desired territories will prove highly beneficial to anyone wishing to successfully harness capital in that specific market,” said Edward Tse, senior partner with Booz & Company and the firm’s chairman for Greater China.

“Identifying the attributes that the targeted consumers value and adapting the product to meet them – or culling undesirable traits from the existing merchandise – is essential to winning customers.”

Considering the huge, indispensible source of sales volume presented by the global middle market, it’s no surprise that competition is already intense. Despite the number of active companies competing for consumer spending, several would-be contenders are being put off by myths that throw a negative light on the situation. 

“There’s talk that it’s too early to enter the middle market in emerging economies, when the reality is that it may already be too late as some industries are already becoming saturated with competitive rivals,” explained Bill Russo, a senior advisor with Booz & Company, based in Beijing.

 “Other companies claim that they can’t make money from emerging economies, but they have to consider that while prices are up to 40 percent lower than in developed nations, sales volume is potentially up to three times greater than in mature markets.”

This explains the motivation of Adidas to develop training shoes under the Reebok brand to sell for as little as 1 dollar across rural India, said Karl Nader, Principal at Booz & Company.

This is the case in the GCC, where multinationals that have been late in the game, face stiff competition from local brands as well as from established international competitors deeply rooted in the local market. These multinationals either fold or resort to inorganic growth options to bridge this gap.

This is evidenced, by Carrefour’s challenges to compete effectively against Panda and Al Othaim in Saudi Arabia, and Coca Cola’s recent acquisition of a 50% stake in Aujan, a significant investment to bridge the gap with PepsiCo, added Nader.

Russo goes on to explain that the attitude of assuming that success will come from the education of consumers, rather than the adaptation of products, will not bear fruit. No matter how valued or desirable the merchandize is, most newly-minted middle-class customers will not be able to afford them.

The final myth laid to rest is that entering the global middle market will be too disruptive to operations, to which he simply says that companies need to develop a business model that is suited to the task in order to succeed.

It may be that an alteration in the mind set of more conventional multinational corporation executives is required, in order for them to compete for the position of industry leader by cashing in on the benefits of the middle-class market. The opportunities in the global middle market may require additional effort in order to successfully reap the rewards on offer, but they’re most certainly worth it at the end of the day.

Click here to download the pdf report by Booz & Company. Registration required.

More reports and whitepapers are available on the Booz & Company website.

About Booz & Company
Booz & Company is a leading global management consulting firm, helping the world’s top businesses, government ministries, and organisations. Our founder, Edwin Booz, defined the profession when he established the first management consulting firm in 1914. Today, with more than 3,300 people in 60 offices around the world, we bring foresight and knowledge, deep functional expertise, and a practical approach to building capabilities and delivering real impact. We work closely with our clients to create and deliver essential advantage.

For our management magazine strategy+business visit www.strategy-business.com.

For the Ideation Centre, Booz & Company’s leading think tank in the Middle East, visitwww.ideationcentre.com

For more information, please visit www.booz.com and www.booz.com/me

1.15.2012

China car sales slow as US bounces back

China Economic Review, January 13, 2012


Car sales in China grew by only 2.5% last year as the government removed stimulus measures, while the US emerged to become the world's fastest-growing car market, the Financial Times reported. Car and light truck sales in the US grew by 10%, but sales of 12.8 million units were still far below the 18.5 million sold in China. 


Analysts believe the slowdown in China sales was largely due to the withdrawal of tax incentives introduced in 2008; auto sales in China grew by 46% in 2009 and 32% in 2010. Foreign carmakers did better than average, with General Motors (GM.NYSE) posting a 8.3% rise, and Ford (F.NYSE) a 7% increase. 


Analysts believe the auto market will rebound this year, though likely not to 2009 and 2010 levels. "Continued growth of the urban middle class, along with continued investment in China’s transportation infrastructure, will continue to fuel demand growth for the foreseeable future," said Bill Russo, head of Synergistics auto consultancy.


Click here to read this article at www.chinaeconomicreview.com

1.12.2012

US beats China in vehicle sales growth in 2011


The Global Post, January 13, 2012


US beats China in vehicle sales growth in 2011 | GlobalPost
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/120112/us-beats-china-vehicle-sales-growth-slowdown


China vehicle sales 2012 01 12

A crowd gathers to admire a gold-plated Infiniti luxury sports car on display outside a jewelry store in Nanjing in China’s Jiangsu province on March 31, 2011. (STR//AFP/Getty Images)



Growth in vehicle sales in China in 2011 lagged behind growth in US auto sales for the first time in at least 14 years, Bloomberg Businessweek reported.


Total vehicle sales, which include cars, trucks and buses, rose only 2.5 percent, according to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers today, Bloomberg Businessweek reported. Meanwhile, US vehicle sales increased 10 percent, the Associated Press reported.


Auto manufacturers still sold millions more vehicles in China than in the US, delivering 18.5 million vehicles to Chinese buyers in 2011 while US sales were 12.8 million, the AP reported. China became the biggest market in the world by number of new vehicles sold in 2009, according to the AP.


According to the Financial Times:
Most Chinese auto analysts believe the main reason for the slowdown was the withdrawal of tax incentives introduced by Beijing as part of a 2008 economic stimulus package, which helped boost total vehicle sales 46 per cent in 2009 and 32 per cent in 2010. Those incentives, for small engine cars and mini commercial vehicles, were withdrawn completely last year.
Higher interest rates and restrictions on new vehicles in Beijing also kept Chinese consumers from buying cars, Bloomberg Businessweek reported.


“This data was what we expected,” said Jia Xinguang, managing director of the China Automobile Dealers Association, told the AP.


While analysts don’t expect a return to the rapid growth of 2009 and 2010 this year, they said they expect the Chinese market to continue expanding, the Financial Times reported. Bill Russo, head of Synergistics auto consultancy in Beijing and former head of Chrysler in China, told the Financial Times that he expects vehicle sales in China to reach 20 million in 2012. “Continued growth of the urban middle class, along with continued investment in China’s transportation infrastructure, will continue to fuel demand growth for the foreseeable future,” he said.


The average estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is that the US auto market will grow 5.6 percent this year to 13.5 million, Bloomberg Businessweek reported.

China car sales slow as US roars back

The Financial Times, January 12, 2012


Click here to read the article at FT.com



Chinese vehicle sales grew just 2.5 per cent last year, as the withdrawal of government stimulus measures tamed the exuberance of the world's largest auto market.

By contrast, the US last year bounced back to become the world's fastest-growing big car market, with car and light truck sales climbing about 10 per cent. But at an estimated 12.8m units last year, US light vehicle sales were still far below China's 18.5m.

A decade ago, the US auto market was at least 10 times the size of China's. “Any relative comparison of the growth rates between then and now is rather irrelevant,” said Bill Russo, head of Synergistics auto consultancy in Beijing and former head of Chrysler in China.

Some Chinese car buyers may have held off purchasing cars because of credit tightening or fears of inflation, but few analysts see the slowdown as a bellwether of slower Chinese economic growth.

Most Chinese auto analysts believe the main reason for the slowdown was the withdrawal of tax incentives introduced by Beijing as part of a 2008 economic stimulus package, which helped boost total vehicle sales 46 per cent in 2009 and 32 per cent in 2010.

Those incentives, for small engine cars and mini commercial vehicles, were withdrawn completely last year. Car sales – a category that does not include small commercial vehicles that were hit hard by the incentive cancellation – rose 5.2 per cent to 14.5m.

Foreign-invested carmakers did better. General Motors last week said China sales rose 8.3 per cent last year, well below 2010's 29 per cent but significantly above an expected 4 per cent rise in sales for the total Chinese market, while Ford reported a 7 per cent year-on-year increase.

Analysts believe vehicle sales could rebound. “The times of disproportionate growth in 2009 and 2010 are definitely over,” said Klaus Paur, auto market analyst at Ipsos, the market research company.

But Mr Paur still expects 10-12 per cent growth in the car market this year, which "can be considered healthy and significant . . . in light of the long-term potential of the Chinese market".

Bill Russo, head of Synergistics auto consultancy in Beijing and former head of Chrysler in China, added: “Continued growth of the urban middle class, along with continued investment in China’s transportation infrastructure, will continue to fuel demand growth for the foreseeable future.”

He expects China to be a 20m total vehicle market in 2012.

1.09.2012

GM sales buck trend for China slowdown

The Financial Times, January 10, 2012


Click here to read the story at FT.com



General Motors, the biggest foreign automaker in China, defied a slowdown in the Chinese car market to reach record sales last year of 2.55m vehicles.

GM said in a statement on Monday that sales rose 8.3 per cent last year, well below 2010’s 29 per cent but significantly above an expected 4 per cent rise in sales for the total Chinese market, which is the world’s largest. Ford also announced its 2011 China sales yesterday, saying they increased 7 per cent.

Total market figures for last year are expected to be released within days by the China Association of Auto Manufacturers (CAAM), which has previously forecast sales would grow by less than 5 per cent in 2011, compared to 46 per cent in 2009 and 32 per cent in 2010. Auto market analysts attribute the decline to Beijing’s tightening of credit policy last year, and the withdrawal of tax incentives introduced after Beijing’s 2008 economic stimulus package.

Withdrawal of the incentives hit domestic car companies disproportionately hard, because they are strongest in the segments of the market favoured by incentives: small cars. This has allowed foreign automakers – including GM – to increase their market share at the expense of locals.


“The natural preference of the Chinese consumer is to buy as much car as they can afford. If they can afford to buy a multinationally branded car, they will”, says Bill Russo, of Synergistics auto consultancy in Beijing, former head of Chrysler in China.



Foreign market share, which was 69 per cent in 2010, may have risen by two to three percentage points last year – though the vast majority of foreign-branded cars are made in China, by joint ventures between foreign and Chinese companies.


“As the Chinese market develops, Chinese consumers are becoming more mature – and that is challenging Chinese auto brands, while benefiting US and European brands,” says Mr Zhang Junyi, of Roland Berger consultants in Shanghai.

Mr Russo says he expects GM to maintain strong sales growth this year. “If you look at the future, you have to be very bullish about GM in China. Their Baojun product line (the joint venture brand launched recently with partner SAIC) will give them a significant boost in tapping into growth in lower tier markets,” he said.

GM has repeatedly welcomed the slowdown in China’s overheated market. As Dan Akerson, GM chief executive, said in Shanghai in November: “You can’t have totally unbridled growth in a country evolving as quickly as China.”

1.05.2012

Analysis of China EV Market Opportunities

Seeking Alpha, November - December 2011


This four-part series drew several references to the recent analysis of China's EV market entitled "The Circuitous Path to Electrification of China's Automotive Industry".

Links to each are posted here:


  1. Introduction of Kandi Technologies
  2. China's EV market: history, present status and future outlook
  3. International perception of China's huge EV market potential
  4. Status of the current EV charging infrastructure
  • Disruptive technologies: Battery swapping versus EV charging
  1. The Chinese utility providers' standpoint
  2. The government, policy makers and Standardization Committees' Standpoint
  3. The Manufacturers' Standpoint
  4. The perspective of Chinese private car users
  • Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou and Jinhua: Establishment of an EV Industry Pilot Model
  • China's recent active efforts to establish a "New Energy Vehicles Industry"
  • Kandi's meticulously prepared plan to become a major player in China's EV market
  • Kandi's strategic alliances, market potential and our opportunity to participate and profit from these accelerating developments.