8.07.2009

Cash-for-clunkers program keeps rolling

Xinhua News Services, August 7, 2009

www.chinaview.cn 2009-08-07 16:05:31

by Jing Zhao Cesarone

CHICAGO, Aug. 6 (Xinhua) -- As a huge hit with consumers and generating about 250,000 incremental sales, the "cash-for-clunkers" incentive program received a new boost of 2 billion U.S. dollars on Thursday night after the U.S. Senate voted 60 to 37 to approve the measure.

Last week the federal government nearly suspended the cash-for-clunkers program because consumers had burned through the budgeted 1 billion dollars in only four days.

Administration officials said that the extension will subsidize the sale of another 500,000 new vehicles. Consumers can get a rebate of up to 4,500 dollars if they trade in gas guzzlers for fuel-efficient vehicles at least through Labor Day in early September.

The White House also supports the extension of the popular program. President Barack Obama has already said he will sign it.

According to government and industry officials, the consumer response had been overwhelming since dealers began offering "clunker" rebates in July.

Across the country, auto dealers have reported a greater rush to stores and rapidly growing sales numbers.

Bill Russo, president and founder of Synergistics Limited, has over 15 years' experience as an automotive executive. "The initial one billion U.S. dollars invested in the program generated approximately 250,000 incremental sales, or an increase of about 20 percent from the normal selling rate. The seasonally-adjusted sales rate was over 11 million units in July, the best performance this year," he told Xinhua in an exclusive interview.

"Companies like Ford and Hyundai saw year-over-year sales increases for July. Others saw improvements over prior-month selling rates," Russo added.

According to U.S. officials, sales under the cash-for-clunkers program have hit 180,000 vehicles so far. The star seller of the "clunker" program was Toyota's Corolla Sedan, which surpassed the Ford Focus as the best-selling vehicle. The Honda Civic came in third.

Under this program, the new vehicles sold average 25.3 mpg, while those traded in only got 18.5 mpg.

Talking about other benefits, Russo pointed out that the program was encouraging American consumers to trade in their cars for smaller, more fuel efficient ones.

"The consumer movement toward more fuel efficient cars may outlast the program, and this will lower fuel consumption and provide environmental benefits," he said.

The majority of the U.S. Senate supports the program. U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow called the program "one of the most important and successful stimuli we have had. It has not only boosted auto sales but the overall economy as well."

However, other senators disagree and have asked for amendments to the program such as excluding richer consumers and increasing the amount of vouchers to help lower-income Americans purchase vehicles.

Arizona's Republican Senator John McCain, who led the charge against putting any more money into the program, blasted it as an unfair giveaway of taxpayer dollars.

He criticized the program for increasing debt in an unfair effort to subsidize the car industry over other small deserving businesses.

Despite the popularity and initial success of the cash-for-clunkers program, some experts have also voiced concerns.

Russo pointed out that the money allocated to the program will run out very quickly. He said although the cash-for-clunkers program has given the U.S. auto industry a much-needed boost, the sales increases might not last long after the program ends.

In addition, "dealers have complained that the program was very cumbersome and bureaucratic," Russo told Xinhua. "The process for determining (the) rebate level and applying for reimbursements from the government is very difficult. In comparison, China's method of lowering the consumption tax rate was very simple to implement."

Bob Confer, an opinion columnist for the Niagara Gazette, pointed out that cash-for-clunkers will create a temporary bubble very similar to the housing bubble, the bursting of which helped spawn the current economic recession.

Editor: Deng shasha
Click here to view original article posted at www.chinaview.cn

8.06.2009

Synergistics blog promoted on sourcing-asia website, targeting German top firms

Sourcing Asia Blog, August 2009

Click here to link to the Sourcing Asia Blog site

Repost:

SOURCING ASIA BLOGGT...

Als Print-Magazin erscheint sourcing asia - so zweimonatlich wie nur irgendwie möglich. Online sind wir schneller: Blog, Twitter, News, Videos, schlaue Blogs und mehr. Die "fort" laufenden Neuigkeiten halten wir mit den Links im Blog für Sie fest. Genauso wie unsere - oder auch Ihre - Anmerkungen

Abonnieren Posts (Atom)

BILL RUSSO ANALYSIERT...

Bill Russo analysiert...
...die Autowirtschaft in China und global. Der Ex-Chrysler-Mann hält Vorträge und twittert als billrusso ohne Ende. Seine Beratungsfirma heißt Synergistics.

FONS TUINSTRA BEOBACHTET...

Fons Tuinstra beobachtet...
Unser Buchautor Fons Tuinstra, der auch für den China Herald schreibt, sah 2005 die Westler in China vom Veränderungswillen der Chinesen manchmal restlos überfordert. Von Belgien aus versucht Tuinstra via Twitter (fonstuinstra) mit China Schritt zu halten.

ES KOMMENTIERT...

Hier ein Blick in einige der interessantesten Blogs und Websites zum Asiengeschäft.

UND ER?

HANS GÄNG
Herausgeber, Gründer, Chefredakteur, CEO von local global
MEIN PROFIL VOLLSTÄNDIG ANZEIGEN

..TWITTERT AUCH.

7.31.2009

Revving Up: The expansion of the Chinese car market is good for domestic and foreign manufacturers alike

EuroBiz Magazine, August 2009

Cover Story

by Mark Andrews

It was only a decade ago private car ownership seemed like a dream for Chinese consumers, but today the dream has already been realized by much of the Chinese middle class. The explosive growth of car ownership in China led analysts to predict China would soon become the world's largest auto market, and in January they were proven right.

"China's growth has been well ahead of forecast for several years, but nobody expected China to take the lead until sometime in the middle of the next decade," says
William Russo, president of Synergistics, a business consultancy specialising in the auto sector. Even allowing for the impact of the downturn in the US, it is still amazing how quickly the Chinese market has grown, he says.

China's unofficial celebration of its new stature was marked by the 13th biennial Shanghai Auto Show held last April. More than 600,000 people attended the show, many of whom were actually shopping. Jason Shen, for example was a postgraduate student looking to buy his first car. "For me it's a family purchase," he said. "If I have a car it is very convenient for me to take my wife to work, my child to school, and look after my parents."

Solidly middle-class consumers like Shen are the future of the domestic car market. Sales in the first half of 2009 amounted to 6.1 million units, compared to 4.8 million in the US. "Since 2003 China's vehicle market has more than doubled in size from 4.56 million units to 9.67 million units [in 2008]. Of this total, 61 percent, or 5.91 million units, represent passenger vehicles," says Russo.

This is good news for foreign manufacturers; two-thirds of all passenger cars sold in China are produced by foreign brands or their joint ventures.

Around the end of last year the market faltered slightly, but the Chinese government stepped in with a plan to aid the industry. The plan aimed to boost the sales of more fuel-efficient vehicles, aid development of domestic brands through R&D and acquisitions, and promote electric cars.

Since January 20, taxes on vehicles with an engine displacement of 1.6 litres or less have been reduced, along with subsidies for purchase of those of less than 1.3 litres. January and February saw a nearly 19 percent increase in sales of such cars.

"The Chinese are natural savers and have liquid cash in troubled times, which coupled with government incentives has boosted the Chinese car market ahead of the US in sheer volume," argues Ash Sutcliffe, author of the popular China Car Times web site. "This cash behind them has given car buyers a great amount of room to manoeuvre at the negotiating table."

Foreign attention

In the past, many foreign manufacturers used the China market as a place to sell old designs. Sutcliffe points to the Volkswagen Santana, Daihatsu Charade and Austin Maestro as examples of models that were produced in China long after they had debuted in other markets. Nevertheless, some of these models - the Santana in particular - went on to set sales records.

However, today American, Japanese and Korean manufacturers' joint ventures are offering their latest designs on the mainland. Porsche's launched its new Panamera sports saloon at the Shanghai Auto Show, the first time Porsche had launched a new car at a non-European or American show.

Manufacturers are also now taking into account Chinese tastes and modifying their products to suit. Ford, for example, launched a saloon version of the popular Fiesta hatchback in China this year designed specifically to appeal to the "real men don't drive hatchbacks" market in China. Audi produced a specially lengthened version of the A4 for China. Lengthened cars, with their greater rear legroom, are popular here as they can accommodate larger family units or business partners.

Another leader has been General Motors. In 2006, GM introduced a Chinese version of the Buick LaCrosse. While based on the architecture of its American namesake, the Chinese model has a completely different body and interior designed in Shanghai. The domestic styling of the LaCrosse was so successful that GM's Shanghai subsidiary is now in charge of redesigning the interior and the exterior for its replacement, to be released later this year in both the US and China.

Volkswagen has also got in on the act, launching the VW Lavida and VW New Bora in China last year. With the recent rumours that VW will end production of the Jetta and Santana in China by 2012, Volkswagen's strategy seems to be targeting China with a mixture of its latest international designs and localised versions.

When it comes to the top end, the near-monopoly enjoyed by foreign brands shows no sign of ending. Government officials, leading purchasers of luxury vehicles, no longer exclusively purchase Audis, but are also buying Mercedes and BMWs.

But some foreign carmakers are looking to get in on the growing, low-price market as well. Italian carmaker Fiat created a joint venture this July with Guangzhou Automobile Group to produce economy cars for the Chinese market. Beginning in May 2011, the JV will produce 140,000 cars per year and may increase production up to 250,000 units.

Local pride
At a time when the names of Chinese manufacturers are being tossed around as potential purchasers for ailing American and European car brands, local brands made a confident showing at the Shanghai exhibition, demonstrating their latest models along with concepts and technology.

However, behind the scenes there has been a shift in perception. The original aim behind the joint ventures with foreign manufacturers was to help larger state-owned carmakers to create competitive brands of their own. With the exception of SAIC, with its Roewe and MG brands - which were acquired, not created - this has yet to happen.

The market leaders in sales by domestic companies, Chery, Geely and BYD, are all either private companies or were created by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) not previously involved in car production. Beijing has correspondingly started to bet on domestic leaders like Chery and Geely at the expense of the big SOEs, says John Russell, CEO of Manganese Bronze Holdings, which is currently in a JV with Geely to produce London-style taxis.

One tangible product of this government support is Geely's purchase in March of Australian transmission manufacturer DSI. This acquisition may help Geely overcome a significant technology challenge. According to an executive at Great Wall Motors, gearbox technology is one of the biggest bottleneck areas for Chinese producers.
Cutting edge?

Chinese battery manufacturer BYD last year took the motoring world by surprise with its launch of the F3DM, an electric car which also features a small petrol engine to generate electricity when the charge runs out. The F3DM will hit the showrooms two years before projected launch of the much vaunted electric Chevrolet Volt.

At the Shanghai Auto Show, most of the larger Chinese manufacturers also displayed advanced technology featuring hybrids and electric vehicles. Unlike the F3DM, these models are mostly "mild hybrids", which store power during the deceleration phase and then reuse it to help with acceleration.

Chinese government targets call for a production capacity of 500,000 electric and hybrid vehicles a year by the end of 2011.

However, market analysts Frost & Sullivan forecast that actual demand by 2015 will be only 100,000. Russo of Synergistics says that manufacturers are still cautious when it comes to hybrids. "There has not been any strong indication of a movement to produce such vehicles on a large scale."

Sales of hybrids have justified their caution. Chinese sales of the Prius amounted to 899 units during 2008 and so far BYD's F3DM has only been delivered in small numbers to fleet users.

Even with city and central government subsidies to reduce initial costs of purchase, electric vehicles are largely unsuitable for the Chinese market infrastructure. Most people live in apartments without private garages and therefore have nowhere to hook the car up to the electricity grid in the evenings. These target production levels also assume that the grid can generate enough electricity for them in the first place.

Sutcliffe and Russo agree that the technology on display at the auto show was more about creating publicity for the manufacturers. When it comes down to it, Chinese consumers care about price, says Russo. "The vast majority are looking for an overall cost-effective mode of transportation, and so what the consumer in China will look for is the total cost of ownership."


7.30.2009

TREND #1: Policy-driven Consolidation of Chinese Vehicle Manufacturers

July 30, 2009

by Bill Russo

In my last post, I introduced the Eight Overarching China Automotive Trends That Are Revolutionizing the Auto Industry. I will describe in this and subsequent postings how each trend is manifested, and how they cumulatively result in a transformational force which is fundamentally changing the business model and competitive landscape of the global auto industry.

I had previously introduced the first trend in detail in the article The Coming Structural Realignment of China's Automotive Sector (posted on this blog on April 28, 2009). Since that time, there have been a flurry of announcements regarding potential mergers and alliances among the China domestic vehicle manufacturers, including Beijing Automotive Industry Corp (BAIC) and Fujian Daimler, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. (GAC) and Zhejiang Gonow Auto, Chery Automotive and Jianghuai Automobile Co. (JAC), Dongfeng Motors investment in Yulon's LuxGen (Hangzhou) Motor Co., and First Auto Works (FAW) and Brilliance Auto.

The rationale for this major restructuring is clear: the current structure of the automotive industry reflects an industry in its nascent stage of development. There are more than 150 registered vehicle manufacturers in China. In 2008, only 10 of these manufacturers accounted for 83% of the vehicles sold. This highly fragmented structure cannot provide for a stable development of the current domestic players.

As a result, the Chinese government has pulled-ahead its plan to consolidate the vehicle manufacturer landscape in order to achieve economies of scale. Prompted by the economic crisis, the China government in January, 2009 published stimulus plans for 10 key industries including automotive. The most sweeping proposal in this plan is the intention to consolidate the industry into a “top 10” group organized into 2 distinct “tiers”: the Tier 1 group consisting of companies with an annual capacity of 2 million units that are encouraged to acquire smaller automotive companies throughout China, whereas Tier 2 consists of companies with an annual capacity of 1 million units that are encouraged to drive regional consolidation. The plan even names 4 tier 1 companies as well a 4 tier 2 companies:

TIER 1:

· Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corp (SAIC)

· First Auto Works (FAW) Group

· Dongfeng Automobile

· Chang’An Automotive

TIER 2

· Beijing Automotive Industrial Corp (BAIC)

· Guangzhou Automotive Industrial Group (GAIG)

· Chery Automobile

· China Heavy Duty Truck Corp (CNHTC)

It is noteworthy that this is not a final list of surviving companies as it represents only 8 of the “top 10”, and by calling it “top” 10 there is obviously room for others below the “top”. One can anticipate that OEM consolidation and rationalization will surely be accompanied by a major restructuring of the Chinese auto supply base. It is also noteworthy that companies such as BYD, Geely and Great Wall are not included on the list. In spite of this, there is a clear indication of the rationale and urgency around the issue of consolidation, and why the time to act is now.

But, how does a restructuring of the domestic structure in a single auto market revolutionize the global auto industry? Taken as a stand-alone trend, it certainly is not sufficient enough to unleash a global transformational force. However, one must consider the fact that we are talking about the largest and still rapidly expanding China auto market. By seizing on the financial crisis as a triggering event to drive forward the necessary consolidation, the China government is ensuring that it can more efficiently develop the industry around the fewer, and stronger auto groups that remain. This is a necessary foundation-building step from which fewer, yet stronger China auto companies can emerge. While providing a base, it is the cumulative impact of this trend along with the remaining seven yet to be described that will revolutionize the business model of the global automotive industry.

In the next posting, I will describe the trend of "Global Redistribution of Assets to Capture China Market Growth".

Click here to view article published in GLG News

Click here to view article published in GlobalAutoIndustry.com
Click here to view article published in Gasgoo.com China Automotive News

Click below to view:

7.25.2009

Eight Overarching China Automotive Trends That Are Revolutionizing the Auto Industry

July 25, 2009

by Bill Russo

In my recent article China's Next Revolution: Transforming the Global Automotive Industry I brought forth the argument that some have found controversial: that China is the catalyst behind the restructuring of the global automotive industry. Some believe the automotive industry is undergoing change because of the global economic crisis, which has little to do with China. Still others believe that the restructuring is a result of mismanagement and that major OEMs can be restored to greatness with a change to new leadership possessing sufficient vision to adopt a new course.

However, I believe we are witnessing the early stages of an economic revolution: a shift of the global center of gravity of economic strength towards the east which will result in profound changes in numerous industries. As an economic bellwether, the automotive industry captures a great deal of interest. However, it is apparent that there are many who still do not comprehend that the changes are in fact fundamental and irreversible.

It is apparent that more explanation is needed for many to grasp the fact that China is the catalyst for this automotive revolution, and that the opportunity exists for China and its fledgling automotive companies to assume a leadership role in the 21st century automotive industry. This explanation will be offered by highlighting eight overarching trends which are shaping the China automotive industry: now the largest in the world and the new battleground for domination of the global auto industry.

Eight Overarching China Automotive Trends:
Click here to view article published in GlobalAutoIndustry.com
Click here to view article published in Gasgoo.com China Automotive News


Click below to view:



7.08.2009

GlobalAutoIndustry.com Publication of "China's Next Revolution: Transforming the Global Auto Industry"

ASIAtalk eJournal, July 2009

Henry Ford’s introduction of the moving assembly line in 1908 changed the world: making automotive transportation affordable for the masses, accelerating the industrial revolution, and shaping the distribution of economic wealth. While the world has witnessed great technological advances over the past century, the automobile industry still resembles that which was pioneered over a century ago. Simply stated, the crisis faced by today’s automotive industry has a lot to do with the application of a "one size fits all" 20th-century industrial paradigm to a 21st century global environment. In this third article in a 3-part series on the China auto industry, Bill Russo describes how the rapidly expanding China market has become the catalyst driving the transformation of the business model and technological underpinnings of the global auto industry.

To view the full article published in ASIAtalk click here.

7.02.2009

Buying Big

China International Business, July 2, 2009

by Kit Gillet
In an issue focusing heavily on China’s push towards greener cars it would be remiss not to look at another recent development in the Chinese auto world − the possible purchase of GM’s Hummer division by Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industry Machinery (四川腾中重工机械有限公司), a five-year-old, previously-unknown Sichuanese company who have, up until now, focused primarily on making bridges, piers and highway maintenance equipment.

The announcement came as a shock even for Chinese industry insiders, many of whom had to Google search to try to find a mention of this audacious company.
“It came out of left-field, that’s for sure,” says Bill Russo, former vice president of Chrysler’s North East Asia division and now president of Synergistics, a China-based auto consultancy. While it is uncertain whether the deal will go through — the government must approve any overseas acquisition worth over USD 100 million and this purchase would fly in the face of recent statements about strongly promoting green energy — it highlights a growing trend among Chinese car manufacturers: buying foreign brands outright rather than simply setting up joint ventures with them.

While most major international car manufacturers have a joint venture in China — GM has a partnership with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (上汽集团/SAIC), Fiat with Nanjing Auto (南京汽车集团有限公司), Volkswagen also with SAIC and BMW with Brilliance (华晨汽车), to name just a few — it has only been in the last few years that the market has allowed Chinese companies to buy up international brands lock, stock and barrel.

SAIC, one of China’s largest carmakers, acquired Korean brand Ssongyong Motors in 2004, while Rover-MG was purchased by Nanjing Auto in 2005, which subsequently went into collaboration with SAIC. Now, with a pile of assets up for sale from collapsing companies elsewhere, it is the turn of other buyers. GM is trying to sell their SAAB and Saturn divisions, while talks of a Volvo buyout have been floating around for months, with most reports suggesting that Chinese firms are at the top of these buyers’ lists, though Swedish company Koenigsegg seems set to win the race for SAAB.

This is in line with the development of China into an automotive powerhouse, according to Klaus Paur, regional director of automotive for TNS China. “First they were setting up joint ventures, now they are in the process of establishing themselves in the global market,” he explains.

Yet along with the obvious technological and name-recognition benefits attached to buying these brands come major concerns. After all, there is a reason these brands are for sale, and in the case of Hummer have been unable to find a buyer for over a year: they are unpopular and have been losing money for years. Hummer sales fell 51% last year, the worst drop in the industry, and, according to some reports, are down a further 67% to date in 2009.

Buying a controlling stake in a brand without fully understanding what you hope to gain and without having a transition plan can be disastrous. According to Synergistics’ Russo, SAIC’s purchase of Ssongyong is a good example of what not to do. Issues over manufacturing locations, accusations of engine copying and labor union conflicts turned the venture into a disaster, and the Korean company’s filing for bankruptcy protection this February means huge loses for SAIC.

Yet this recent setback has not stopped SAIC, or dissuaded other Chinese firms, from trying to grasp the opportunities on offer in today’s global climate.
“The world is on sale,” says Russo, “they can buy for pennies on the dollar.” (While the original asking price for Hummer was in the region of USD 500 million, Tengzhong’s offer is believed to be around USD 100 million).

This buyer’s enthusiasm is also an outgrowth of the stimulus plan, as banks — presumably with government backing — are offering huge loans to industries like the auto sector. In December 2008 the Export-Import Bank of China provided Chery Automobile with an RMB 10 billion credit line, while China Everbright Bank (中国光大银行) signed an agreement to provide Geely (吉利汽车)with RMB 1 billion for possible acquisitions. “[It is] obviously the duty of China’s banking sector to help industries go abroad to acquire technology, branding and foreign expertise,” said Zhu Min, vice president of the Bank of China, at a recent Institute of International Finance conference held in Beijing.

Yet despite the opportunities available, most analysts seem hesitant about how Chinese automakers might be able to best take advantage of the situation. “Chinese companies need to improve technology and on their own this would take considerable time,” says Russo. “Yet, while hardware is easier to buy than software, even getting the hardware doesn’t mean you understand how it grew.”

If the Hummer deal is to go ahead — and that is a big if — the key for Tengzhong in the short term seems to be in maintaining the same manufacturing base and management team, as they have none of their own expertise in the auto sector. Tengzhong’s CEO, Yang Yi, has indicated they will do just that — keeping senior management in place and its production facility in Shreveport, Louisiana — which will help create a more fluid transition and appease consumers and government officials in the United States who fear subsequent loss of jobs if the company moved production wholesale to China.

Yet in the long run the plan must be to move key operations to China and to try to tap into the growing Chinese market. Currently it is rare to see a Hummer driving along a road in China, and Tengzhong must be hoping to change that. “There would probably be a market in China,” says Paur. “There are enough people rich enough and who don't care about the environment. It is an aspirational brand.”

Yet, with the government’s newly-altered vehicle tax rates that aim to promote less-polluting models, the current 4 liter, gas-guzzling Hummer would be subject to a 40% tax rate, a significant markup on what would presumably be an already high price tag.

This leads us back to one of the reasons that many feel the deal could be nothing more than a PR move to gain Tengzhong some domestic and international attention and name recognition: the unlikelihood of the government giving their permission.

While Ministry of Commerce spokesman Yao Jian told a recent press conference that “against the backdrop of the global financial crisis it is rational and normal for Chinese companies to adopt an international outlook,” it remains to be seen if they will all be allowed to. He also confirmed that the ministry had yet to receive any application related to the Hummer deal.

There are now approximately 150 companies in China licensed to manufacture vehicles, of which the top 20 make 95%. The government has expressed a desire to consolidate the industry, to create, in Paur's words, “one or two [companies] who could go on to become global players.” Even forgetting that Hummer produces a vehicle completely out of sync with government initiatives and that Tengzhong have no track record, the powers-that-be are unlikely to want another vehicle manufacturer entering a marketplace already crowded with small players.

Other deals are much more likely to go ahead. In fact, according to one of China’s leading automotive websites, Auto Sohu, Ford and Geely have already struck an agreement over Volvo, with the company’s production line set to move to Dongguan, Guangdong Province. Geely were among a group of carmakers included in a March Ministry of Commerce tour of possible acquisitions across Europe’s auto and machine industry.

“It is a very tempting time for Chinese [auto] manufacturers, but there are also big risks,” says Paur. No amount of risk is likely to deter Tengzhong and its rivals from trying to take advantage of the financial crisis to become global players but, according to Paur, “most are premature; they are not yet where they need to be to exploit the opportunity.”