12.02.2012

China’s carmakers crank up exports

The Financial Times, December 2, 2012


For the first time, China is expected to export 1m vehicles this year. Faced with rising competition in their home market, the largest in the world, Chinese carmakers are finding it easier to go abroad and sell cars in less sought-after markets such as Iran and Iraq.

China’s car market has slowed along with the domestic economy and passenger car sales rose only 6.9 per cent in the year to October. Domestic carmakers have been particularly hard hit by the abolition of government tax incentives that favoured them, losing market share to US, European and Korean rivals.



Japanese carmakers in China have been forced to cede market share due to a Sino-Japanese territorial dispute that caused public protests against Japanese cars. But very little of that market share has gone to Chinese carmakers who have less than 30 per cent of the market by volume.

They have responded by cranking out exports to some of the world’s less prestigious markets: China’s top car export markets for the first three quarters of this year were Algeria, Iraq, Iran, Russia and Chile. By the end of October, China’s total vehicle exports for the year exceeded the total figure for 2011, and passenger car exports rose 43 per cent year-on-year in October alone.

“It is really a function of domestic demand,” says Bill Russo, head of Synergistics auto consultancy in Beijing and former head of Chrysler in China. “As the market slows, the pressure on inventory goes up and the natural safety valve is to direct cars to the export market.”

“Passenger vehicle exports have become the main driving force for growth for Chinese domestic automakers,” says Namrita Chow of IHS Automotive in Shanghai, adding that “Chinese automakers are foraying into markets generally outside regions targeted by international automakers, allowing them to achieve growth” and offload excess inventory.

With a few notable exceptions, like Great Wall Motors, a well-respected privately owned Chinese group best known for its sport utility vehicles, most Chinese car companies are targeting the lower end of export markets. They have no choice, because they lack products outside that segment.

But it is a risky strategy, says Lin Huaibin of IHS Automotive. “If you enter overseas markets at a low price level, then it is very hard to climb up later . . . they do not want to repeat the mistake they made in China where (domestic) brands are associated with low prices and are finding it hard to move upmarket”.

After decades of exporting mostly cheap, low quality products – and several scandals involving death or injury caused by Chinese exports of pet food, toothpaste and other products – the country’s manufacturers in a range of sectors face the same problem: how to combat the bad image of brand China overseas.

Haier, one of the world’s largest home appliance manufacturers, has partly solved that problem by choosing a name that sounds more German than Chinese. But that will not work for everyone.

Chery, the largest car exporter with 165,000 foreign sales in the first ten months of the year, says 30 per cent of its sales come from overseas, where the company’s lower priced models are the best sellers.

Geely, owner of Volvo and the second-largest exporter so far this year, denies that pressure at home is forcing it to seek export markets. With Geely’s domestic sales expected to grow 10 per cent this year “we don’t need to shift our focus to exports,” says a company spokesman.

Overseas sales now account for about a fifth of Geely total sales “and the proportion will continue to grow as the growth of sales overseas will still be much higher than that at home – we still have a huge market out there to expand in,” the company says. Previously Geely has said it plans to sell as many cars overseas as at home.

Great Wall, the fourth-largest and most upmarket of the Chinese exporters, has a different strategy. “We aim at quality rather than quantity for overseas markets,” a company spokesman says, adding that many Great Wall products overseas are priced at or near the level of similar Western and Japanese products. “We want to build the brand image of Great Wall and change the impression in overseas markets that Chinese cars are low in quality and sell cheap.”

Like Chery, which has started construction of a factory in Brazil, Great Wall is increasingly producing cars overseas for foreign markets. By 2015 Great Wall expects to have 24 overseas production facilities with capacity of 500,000 units.

But Klaus Paur, global head of automotive research at Ipsos, says that for many Chinese automakers, focusing on exports “is not a sustainable strategy” and they must first concentrate on the challenges of increased competition they face back home. “If they are selling well outside China, that may distract them from fixing the problems they have in the China market itself,” he says.

Click here to read the article at FT.com


12.01.2012

China Is Key to Volkswagen's Global Goal of Being No. 1 Automaker

Advertising Age, November 26, 2012


Most Buyers Outside China's Biggest Cities Will Be First-Time Car Owners


Volkswagen PassatThe capital of the landlocked Gansu province, which borders the Gobi Desert, is home to 11 dealerships for VW and its sibling brands, Audi and Skoda. With a population of 3.6 million and gross domestic product per capita of $4,100, Lanzhou is the type of smaller city away from China's prosperous east coast that VW is targeting in its next phase of expansion.
"Volkswagen's early entry into China meant that our outlets focused on bigger, developed cities," said Soh Weiming, the carmaker's exec VP in China. "Now, we have to expand beyond them."
Less-developed Chinese cities are VW's "bread and butter," Mr. Soh said last week in an interview at the Guangzhou auto show.
Increasing sales in such far-flung places is the primary challenge facing Jochem Heizmann, who took over as VW's China country head on Sept. 1.
The appointment of Mr. Heizmann, a former trucks chief and head of production planning at the company, underlines the importance of China in VW's plans to overtake General Motors and Toyota Motor Corp. It is also the first time that VW's executive overseeing China has been on the company's group management board, a move that VW says streamlines its daily business there.
At stake is a market that IHS Automotive and Macquarie Securities project will eclipse the combined sales of the United States, Germany and Japan in three years.
VW Group's Volkswagen, Audi and Skoda brands account for a fifth of China's passenger vehicle deliveries, well ahead of General Motors, at 9.9% with its Buick and Chevrolet brands, according to researcher LMC Automotive.
VW intends to consolidate its lead with aggressive investment that outpaces the expansion plans of its rivals. The German company expects that to help it win over the next wave of Chinese car buyers, made up of mostly first-timers who have little brand allegiance.
"Chinese consumers are notoriously disloyal," said Bill Russo, president of Synergistics Ltd., a market researcher in Beijing. "Volkswagen's challenge is continuing to build customer relationship management, and be geographically in the high-growth regions."
China's smaller cities will account for 60% of new car deliveries by the end of the decade, up from 40% in the past 10 years, McKinsey & Co. predicts. Car sales in so-called third- and fourth-tier cities will grow 10% annually until 2020, vs. 4% in Shanghai and Beijing, McKinsey said.
The country, already the world's largest auto market, will grow in importance as a debt crisis dampens vehicle sales in Europe.
"Globally, growth will be a bit slow," Mr. Heizmann told reporters on Nov. 21. "China is different," he said. "In China, every business, every brand is selling especially well."
VW's joint ventures with SAIC Motor Corp. and China FAW Group Corp. operate or have announced plans for 11 factories in China, with a targeted capacity of 4 million vehicles a year by 2018. The automaker, which also owns Seat, Bentley and Lamborghini, will have to persuade consumers such as 23-year-old flight attendant Shiny Yao to buy from and stay with the group.
"There are so many choices," said Yao, a Shanghai resident who bought a Honda Civic last month. "If I switch cars, I know I'll not buy another Honda. I'll definitely try something new."
VW plans to recruit more dealers, increase the number of locally made models for its Skoda brand and introduce plug-in hybrid vehicles for sale in the "near future," according to a company statement.
Sales for Skoda, the Czech carmaker that VW took over after the collapse of communism, rose 7% to 181,900 units in China in the first nine months of this year. The country became Skoda's biggest market in 2010, three years after it started local production.
Volkswagen's China sales will reach almost 2.7 million vehicles this year, or 30% of its global total, Norddeutsche Landesbank predicts. The automaker sold 2.3 million vehicles in China in 2011. "For 60 years, the most important market for VW was Germany; they sold around 1 million cars there," said Norddeutsche Landesbank analyst Frank Schwope. "Four or five years back, China overtook the German market. Now VW is still going to sell 1 million cars in Germany, but 2.7 million cars in China."

11.26.2012

Bill Russo Interview on JLR-Chery Joint Venture on China Radio International

CRIEnglish.com, November 23, 2012


UK luxury carmaker Jaguar Land Rover, or JLR, has received approval from the Chinese government to develop a joint venture with Chinese automaker Chery Automobile.

The one point six billion US dollar joint venture will be Jaguar Land Rover's first attempt at making vehicles in China.
The approval comes as results show JLR sales in China have increased by 80% this year. 

To learn more about the joint venture, Brandon Blackburn-Dwyer is speaking with Yale Zhang, Managing Director of the Shanghai-based Auto Foresight Co. Ltd and Bill Russo, President and founder of Synergistics Ltd and Senior Advisor with Booz & Company.


The interview begins 14:37 minutes into the broadcast.

QUESTIONS:

OVERVIEW
1 )Do you support the Joint venture between Chery and JLR? Who is the bigger winner here?

CHERY
2) What is Chery looking for from the partnership? What benefits does the JV bring to Chery?
3) Chery is very much established as a mid-range car brand while JLR is more at the high-end/luxury end. Does this create problems with strategic fit or does it ensure there is no competition between the two parent companies of the JV? Can JLR avoid being tagged with Cherry's reputation?
4) Research by the state-owned China Lianhe Credit Rating Co. shows Chery would have lost money every year for the past three years were it not for government subsidies. If that's the case, will the JV help Chery and how?

JLR
5) JLR's sales are rapidly expanding in China, why are they looking to form a JV if they are already doing so well as an import brand?
6) JLR combines high end passenger vehicles in the Jaguar brand and large scale jeeps in the land rover brand, which is more popular? Can JLR really push its large SUVs into the Asian and particularly Chinese Market?
7) Overall is Chery the right on the ground partner for JLR? What benefits does it bring to JLR over other possible partners?

WIDER MARKET
8) Does this JV tell us anything about the wider car market in China?
9) Are JVs the best strategy for local Chinese brand auto makers like Chery? Are JVs a good strategy for foreign brands entering the Chinese auto market? Or is it part of the regulation they ask required to follow? 

ADVICE
10) What advice would you give to Chery and JLR moving forward?
11) What can others learn from this partnership?

BACK ANCHOR: That was Brandon Blackburn-Dwyer speaking with Yale Zhang, Managing Director of the Shanghai-based Auto Foresight Co. Ltd and Bill Russo, President and founder of Synergistics Ltd and Senior Advisor with Booz & Company. 

11.25.2012

For VW, the Path to Global Dominance Leads Through China

Bloomberg News, November 25, 2012


Jochem Heizmann, president and chief executive officer of Volkswagen Group China. Photographer: Chris Rank/Bloomberg


As Volkswagen AG (VOW) plots a course toward its goal of becoming the world’s biggest automaker by 2018, it’s increasingly clear that the path to global dominance runs through places like Lanzhou, in western China.

The capital of landlocked Gansu province, which borders the Gobi Desert, is home to a total of 11 dealerships for VW and its sister brands, Audi and Skoda. With a population of 3.6 million, and GDP per capita of about $4,100, Lanzhou is the type of smaller city away from China’s prosperous east coast that VW is targeting in its next phase of expansion.


“Volkswagen’s early entry into China meant that our outlets focused on bigger, developed cities,” said Soh Weiming, the carmaker’s China Executive Vice President. “Now, we have to expand beyond them.”

Less-developed Chinese cities are VW’s “bread and butter,” Soh said in an interview at the Guangzhou Autoshow on Nov. 21.

Increasing sales in such far-flung places is the primary challenge facing Jochem Heizmann, who took over as VW’s China country head on Sept. 1.

The appointment of Heizmann, a former trucks chief and head of production planning at the company, underlines the importance of China in VW’s plans to overtake General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) It is also the first time that VW’s executive overseeing China has been on the company’s group management board, a move VW says increases flexibility and streamlines its daily business there.

Disloyal Customers

At stake is a market that IHS Automotive and Macquarie Securities project will eclipse the combined sales of the U.S., Germany and Japan in three years. VW’s Volkswagen, Audi and Skoda brands account for a fifth of China’s passenger vehicle deliveries, well ahead of General Motors Co. (GM), at 9.9 percent with its Buick and Chevrolet nameplates, according to researcher LMC Automotive. Hyundai Motor Co. stands at No. 3 with 9.7 percent, LMC said.

VW intends to consolidate its lead with aggressive investment that outpaces that planned by rivals. VW’s China ventures have pledged to spend 9.8 billion euros ($12.6 billion) in China through 2015, while GM says it will invest as much as $7 billion in the five years to 2015.

The German company expects that spending differential to help it win over the next wave of Chinese car buyers, made up of mostly first-timers who have little brand allegiance.

“Chinese consumers are notoriously disloyal,” said Bill Russo, president of Synergistics Ltd., a market researcher in Beijing. “Volkswagen’s challenge is continuing to build customer relationship management, and be geographically in the high-growth regions.”

Fourth-Tier

China’s smaller cities will account for 60 percent of new car deliveries by the end of the decade, up from 40 percent in the past 10 years, McKinsey & Co. predicts. Car sales in so- called third- and fourth-tier cities will grow about 10 percent annually until 2020, versus 4 percent a year in Shanghai and Beijing, McKinsey said.

The country, already the world’s largest auto market, is set to grow in importance, as a drawn out debt crisis weighs on vehicle sales in Europe.

“Globally, growth will be a bit slow,” Heizmann told reporters on Nov. 21. “China is different,” he said. “In China, every business, every brand is selling especially well.”

Trained as an engineer with a doctorate from Karlsruhe University in Germany, Heizmann is no stranger to the country.

Shanghai Professor

The 60-year-old oversaw factory expansion in China almost two decades ago when he was in charge of planning and commissioning new passenger-car plants at VW. From 2001 to 2007, Heizmann oversaw global production for Audi (NSU), which now counts China as its biggest market. In 2004, he was made a guest professor at Shanghai’s Tongji University, which has a research partnership with Audi.

VW’s joint ventures with SAIC Motor Corp. (600104) and China FAW Group Corp. operate or have announced plans for 11 factories in China, with a targeted capacity of 4 million vehicles a year by 2018. The carmaker is also considering a new 300,000-unit plant in Changsha in southern Hunan province, a person familiar with company’s plans said this month.

VW, based in Wolfsburg, Germany, is currently negotiating an extension to its tie-up with FAW, with which it runs a joint venture making the Jetta sedan and the Audi A6L, a luxury model that was stretched to boost its appeal to Chinese buyers.

Skoda Sales

The automaker, which also owns Seat, Bentley and Lamborghini, will have to persuade consumers like 23-year-old flight attendant Shiny Yao to buy from and stay with the group.

“There are so many choices,” said Yao, a Shanghai resident who bought a Honda Civic last month. “If I switch cars, I know I’ll not buy another Honda. I’ll definitely try something new.”

VW plans to recruit more dealers, increase the number of locally made models for its Skoda brand, and introduce plug-in hybrid vehicles for sale in the “near future,” according to a company statement.

Sales for Skoda, the Czech carmaker that VW took over after the collapse of communism, rose 6.8 percent to 181,900 units China in the first nine months of this year, company data show. The country became Skoda’s biggest market in 2010, three years after it started local production.

Customer Complaints

Heizmann will also have to work to hold on to existing customers unhappy over faults this year with a direct-shift gearbox system that affected some cars, said Jochen Siebert, Shanghai-based managing director at JSC Automotive Consulting, an industry researcher.

The new China chief “still has to give more reassurance to customers that there isn’t a problem with the engine,” Siebert said. “There have been a lot of problems and they need to find a way to better react.”

The automaker agreed to extend the warranty for the automatic transmission technology to 10 years from the standard two years after customers complained and the quality regulator in March demanded a plan to rectify the problem. Drivers complained of noise, vibrations and, in a few cases, a failure to start in humid weather, the company said in May.

Volkswagen’s China sales will reach almost 2.7 million vehicles this year, or about 30 percent of its global total, Norddeutsche Landesbank predicts. The automaker says it sold 2.26 million vehicles in China in 2011.

“For 60 years, the most important market for VW was Germany; they sold around 1 million cars there,” said Norddeutsche Landesbank analyst Frank Schwope. “Four or five years back, China overtook the German market. Now VW is still going to sell 1 million cars in Germany, but 2.7 million cars in China.”

Click here to read this article at Bloomberg News

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Liza Lin in Shanghai at llin15@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chua Kong Ho at kchua6@bloomberg.net

Jaguar Land Rover and Chery investing in Chinese plant

Autoblog, November 24, 2012



While the European auto market for Jaguar and Land Rover is waning, Chinese car buyers can't get enough of the British marques. To meet that demand, Tata Motors, parent company of Jag and Land Rover, is partnering with Chinese automaker Chery Automobile Co.

The two announced plans to invest $1.75 billion to build a new plant and create a new, China-focused brand. 2014 is the target for completion of the factory. Jaguars and Land Rovers built at the facility will be the first ever produced outside the UK according to the Associated Press. The JV will be called Chery Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Company Ltd.

The announcement comes less than a month after JLR announced it would open a design studio in China. It's not clear from the reports whether the two announcements are part of the same JV or two separate plans.

China requires any company wanting to set up domestic production to partner with a local business. By doing so, JLR avoids a 25-percent tariff on imported cars. Chery benefits from a planned research and development center as well as a chance to "really upgrade its capabilities," according to Bill Russo of Synergistics Ltd. in Beijing.


Click here to read this posting at www.autoblog.com

11.20.2012

Jaguar Land Rover-Chery to Invest $1.75 Billion in China Plant

Bloomberg News, November 19, 2012


Tata Motors Ltd. (TTMT)’s Jaguar Land Rover unit and Chery Automobile Co. will invest 10.9 billion yuan ($1.75 billion) to build a manufacturing plant in eastern China and create a new brand to cater to the nation’s consumers.

The 50:50 venture will also set up a research and development center and construct an engine plant as part of the investment, according to a statement by Jaguar Land Rover. The company didn’t say in its release which models will be built at the new factory, targeted for completion in 2014.

“China is now our biggest market,” said Ralf Speth, chief executive officer of Jaguar Land Rover. Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg
“China is now our biggest market,” Ralf Speth, chief executive officer of Jaguar Land Rover, said at a press briefing yesterday after the groundbreaking ceremony for the factory in Changshu, Jiangsu province. “The Chinese economy has grown at a phenomenal rate in recent years and by any western standard, and I’m convinced that it is set to continue to grow at an astounding rate into the future.”

Jaguar Land Rover joins Volkswagen AG (VOW)’s Audi, Daimler AG (DAI)’s Mercedes-Benz and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) in locating production in the world’s biggest vehicle market. The government requires overseas automakers to work with local companies to produce domestically and avoid the nation’s 25 percent import duty.

“Both parties need each other,” Bill Russo, president of Synergistics Ltd., said by phone from Beijing. “JLR needs to be localized because, quite frankly, their competition is localizing. It gives Chery an opportunity to really upgrade its capabilities in a time when it really needs that.”

Expansion Plan

Profit at Jaguar Land Rover rose 77 percent in the second quarter to 305 million pounds ($487 million). Surging China sales of Land Rover vehicles led by the Evoque have helped Speth offset slowing demand in Europe. The Gaydon, England-based unit said in May it will spend 2 billion pounds this year to expand under a plan to introduce 40 new or upgraded models in the next five years.

Jaguar Land Rover, which showed its first two-seat sports car in almost four decades at the Paris Motor Show in September, is targeting as much as 20 percent of the full-size sports car market, Steven de Ploey, the marketing head for Jaguar, said Sept. 27. The company will also begin deliveries next year of the new Range Rover SUV.

Jaguar Land Rover sold 25,176 vehicles in October, a 10 percent increase from a year earlier, driven by demand for the Evoque and Range Rover Sport. Combined sales in the first 10 months rose 35 percent to 294,291 vehicles.

At yesterday’s event in Changshu, Chery Auto Chairman Yin Tongyue told reporters that it is “not the right time” for an initial public offering for the closely held company.


11.14.2012

WTO Intervenes in U.S. Pushback Against China Tariffs

Ward's Auto, November 12, 2012

Click here to read the article at wardsauto.com

An analyst says the duties are meant to keep imports of “posh” Western vehicles at bay while China moves beyond small-car production and develops midsize and large cars.





















A new trade dispute at the World Trade Organization between the U.S. and China over protective duties could foreshadow a battle in a long war for supremacy in global auto markets, an industry expert says.
Peter Cooke, a professor of automotive management at the University of Buckingham in the U.K., discusses the scenario after the WTO’s disputes-settlement body established a panel to adjudicate claims China is imposing illegal duties on U.S. vehicles exported to the country.
Cooke predicts a tough fight from Beijing to maintain the duties, which he characterizes as both punishing and strategic.
According to the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) office, the Chinese government in December 2011 issued both anti-dumping and countervailing tariffs on U.S.-built cars and SUVs with engine capacity of 2.5L or larger.
The USTR reports the anti-dumping duties are 21.5%, with lower rates for selected car companies ranging from 2% to 8.9%, and countervailing tariffs of 12.9%, with lower rates from between 6.2% and 12.9%. These are paid on top of China’s existing 25% duties on U.S. auto imports.
Cooke tells WardsAuto.com China is playing a “long game” with the aim of giving its auto sector time to develop midsize- and large-car capacity, building from its existing strength in the small- and budget-car sector.
“This is part of the new protectionism” spurred by China’s assessment of its local market, he says.
“Driving largely Western cars cannot be good for the pride of China – what about their own domestic brands?” the analyst says. In a market in which “posh” cars are imported, “the buyers love it, but if you are the government, you won’t.”
Chinese leaders “are flexing their industrial muscles, and they are looking at what is one of the most profitable sectors of the market and (saying), ‘We want some of that.’”
The analyst adds that China’s recent economic slowdown likely will make Beijing’s newly appointed political leaders more aggressive in fighting the WTO case.
The duties China is defending are intended to compensate domestic auto makers for alleged U.S. government subsidies to American car companies, and to punish those manufacturers for alleged dumping in China – selling at reduced prices cars that are more expensive at home.
Both practices could violate WTO rules. The panel will decide whether China’s claims are valid and, if so, whether they are in fact illegal.
The U.S. government is confident it will win the case. American diplomats fired a broadside at their Chinese counterparts during an Oct. 22 meeting in Geneva of the WTO dispute-settlement body that formed the panel to judge the countries’ conflicting claims.
Noting attempts to resolve the dispute through negotiations held with China since July have been unsuccessful, a U.S. statement claims China has “breached a number of its obligations under the (WTO) General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the antidumping agreement and the subsidies agreement.”
Several Chinese auto analysts contacted by WardsAuto suggest the U.S. move against China’s measures was timed to make President Obama appear tough on China during the run-up to his re-election.
They also suggest China’s tough stance at least is partly motivated by wanting to counter U.S. complaints to the WTO about Chinese promotion of exports such as clothing. The U.S. already has raised concerns about Chinese tire-import controls.
China’s higher duties are a way of “rattling the saber” over sales of U.S.-built SUVs in the country, says Bill Russo, senior adviser at global consulting firm Booz & Company’s Beijing office.
The tariffs “generally do not have a widespread impact for manufacturers who have production capacity to make cars in China,” he says. The effect is greater on “those who are importing vehicles…This may selectively target car makers like Chrysler who no longer produce vehicles in China.”
Russo also says the levies may be meant to “weaken premium brands of General Motorsand Ford (Cadillac and Lincoln, respectively) which are exported to China.”
While GM stands to gain if the WTO panel rules against China, the auto maker already has been prospering from its manufacturing operations in the country.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, GM says imported vehicles account for less than 0.5% of its Chinese sales. 
Other U.S. auto makers also could benefit if America prevails in the tariff dispute and ultimately convinces China that freer trade is in everyone’s interests, predicts Tomas Hult, director of the International Business Center at Michigan State University.
He argues if China abolished its existing duties and harmonized its tariffs with the U.S. at 2.5%, then GM alone could sell 9 million cars a year in China, up from 2.5 million today.
“With the exception of the last year, the Chinese auto market has grown tremendously in the last decade, mainly due to the population growth of China’s middle class,” he says.
– with Leah Germain and Mark Gao in Beijing