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3.26.2011
Chinalogue: Environmentally Friendly Driving
3.23.2011
Carmaking: The dragon wagon

This is a lesson that comes to every culture that learns to drive. But the owners are also indulging a peculiarly Chinese sense of individuality, using cars to push the personal boundaries of a conformist society.
The liberal use of stickers, decals, furry seat covers, dashboard-mounted perfume canisters and customised slogans makes each Haval – a model produced by Great Wall, a local automaker, and until recently called the Hover – an expression of its owner’s personality. No one at the offroad caper can easily mistake his or her car for anyone else’s.
No country on earth has ever bought so many cars in so little time as China. Thirty years ago, 5,000 passenger vehicles were made on the mainland annually; last year, the figure was 11m. That boom is having profound effects, both inside and outside the country: cars are changing Chinese culture and China is changing the global automotive industry.
Overseas, Chinese tastes are beginning to shape the cars sold worldwide, as manufacturers increasingly tailor their models to meet the demands of what has become the world’s largest car market. Within China, the birth of a vibrant new culture of the automobile is boosting sales of everything from chrome wheels to prosthetic limbs – inexperienced drivers are prone to gruesome crashes.
The hitherto bicycling masses, or at least the richer among them, are buying, financing, servicing, decorating and wrecking cars at a rate not seen since America in the days of the Model T, Japan in the 1960s or Korea in the 1980s. It is very much a car boom with Chinese characteristics – and it is having a profound effect on everything from the economy to the fabric of society.
Chinese are buying cars when their income hits the same threshold that prompted mass automisation in Europe, Japan and South Korea. But China’s car culture is evolving very differently from elsewhere, says Bill Russo, head of Beijing’s Synergistics, an automotive consultancy, and former head of Chrysler in China. “This is a culture that people from afar see as very uniform, but when you experience it at first hand you realise how unique and personal people like to be ... because they want to break away from the pack.”
Car clubs capture the paradigm of highly personalised consumption within a crowded culture. Yet the sense of flashback is intense. Haval car club members drink Coke, barbecue meat over portable grills and eat off the tailgates of their 4x4s in an unconscious parody of America, the mother of all car cultures, in its mid-20th century automotive golden age.
At the same time, though, they brew Chinese tea and heat up packet noodles on their bit of what passes for the Beijing countryside, only a few hundred metres from the nearest crane and building site. And they make a point of exchanging business cards: for China’s car boom is encouraging not just physical mobility but a new social mobility too.
The car club’s head, who goes by the handle Wawa (or “baby”) and comes from the nation’s north-east, is using her car to overcome her status as an outsider to Beijing. A feisty 29-year-old with a one-year-old driving licence, she guns her vehicle up and down a steep slope above the river bank – and masterminds a relief effort when one of the club’s novice drivers inevitably gets mired in sand.
“Before I bought a car, I stayed at home surfing the internet to make friends,” she says. “Owning a car gets me out of the internet world.”
Everything from finance to insurance to accident repair is different too. A decade into China’s car boom, about four out of five people who buy cars are doing so for the first time. “Seventy-five per cent of our customers are 35 and younger,” says Kirk Cordill, head of BMW Automotive Finance in China. “We’re really having to explain a loan to customers, and explain why it makes sense.” To serve a customer base with no credit histories, the business sometimes does “home checks” to see whether people live where they say they do – something that would be done in the US, for example, only if a car was on the point of being repossessed.
The enthusiasts she meets help to broaden not just her social circle but also the all-important web of relationships that underpin business success in China. Wawa says she meets people from different professions – and different “social levels” – that she could never meet without a car.
Apart from making friends and influencing people, club members also get together to spend money on everything to do with cars – from buying the ubiquitous Hello Kitty dashboard ornaments to organising long-distance road trips as far afield as Tibet.
Their spending power has begun to fuel a secondary boom in all things car-related. From servicing to accessories, finance, insurance and rentals, crash repair and a second-hand market, a whole new ecosystem is growing up around China’s car boom. This offers attractive investment options to early movers, industry analysts say. “Right now there are 80m cars on the road in China,” says Mr Russo. “By 2020 there will be three to four times that number, so the impact on all the downstream businesses ... is only beginning.”
Gaps in these industries are huge: hotels, restaurants and other services for long-distance drivers are still rudimentary. Though the Chaobai river park is a well-known tourist destination, it lacks public toilets: the car club has to corral four cars in a square to create a makeshift privy. Plans for an overnight outing have to be shelved, it transpires, because the family hostel the group usually uses has no heating.
Car dealers in China will be among the first to benefit, says Ivo Naumann of AlixPartners, a US-based consultancy, in Shanghai. While selling new cars is a low-margin business, he adds, dealers’ profitability will shoot up as those on the road age, boosting demand for higher-margin service and repair work. “In two to three years, China’s car dealers will experience a boom that has never occurred before,” he says.
China’s automotive aftermarket is developing more quickly than, and in different ways from, its precursor in the US, says Mark McLarty, chairman of Yanjun Auto, which runs northern China’s largest BMW franchise. “They’re younger – they don’t have the brand loyalty, they don’t have the dealership loyalty,” he says of the country’s car buyers.
Mr McLarty installed a glass wall at the dealership to allow customers to watch their vehicle being serviced because, he says, “the Chinese do not trust mechanics”. He built a race track at one Beijing outlet to allow customers to sample the cars’ performance at speeds normally unattainable on the city’s congested roads. In a country where most drivers are new – and accident rates are high – his business also runs its own 24-hour paint and body shop.
Tastes in accessories alter over time, says Annie Zhang, sales director for BMW’s Mini brand at Yanjun Auto. Last year, for example, customised headlamps and seat covers were in; this year, she says, stickers are popular, including rabbit-shaped ones to commemorate the Chinese year of the rabbit. “I know someone who paid as much to decorate his car as to buy it in the first place,” she maintains.
At Beijing’s Siyuanqiao outdoor car accessory market, three labourers seated in a shop stitch fake leather into custom-made seat covers for a BMW owner who wants to keep her light tan 5-series car’s interior clean. “The post-1980s and post-1990s generation want to personalise their cars,” says Yan Hongmei, the shop’s manager. “They personalise the headlamps, the horn, the video system – they even repaint the car to make it reflect themselves.”
In a neighbouring garage, Andy Bai, a 21-year-old customer, proudly points to his lovingly accessorised new Volkswagen Golf. Affixed to the bonnet are chrome letters spelling out his name and that of his girlfriend Vera, as well as “Verandy” – a romantic entwining of the two. “I wanted to put the logo on my car so that people will know it’s my car and has my character,” he says.
As China’s first generation of drivers ages – and as more Chinese grow up in the back of cars rather than on bicycles – consumption patterns will doubtless change again, possibly in unpredictable ways, analysts say. The government, too, is wary of allowing cars to be put on the road in unsustainable numbers. With a rapidly expanding high-speed rail network, it remains to be seen whether people will rent cars or take trains instead, says Mr Russo.
Carmakers think the country will buy 20m cars and trucks in the current “slowdown” year – more than the US ever did, even in its pre-crisis peak year of 2007. But China’s car market has a tendency to break industry forecasts. So anything is possible. As Lang Xuehong, an automotive analyst in Beijing, puts it: “It’s 1916 America in China now.”

Additional reporting by Shirley Chen
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BRAKES ON A BOOM
How far can China’s car boom go? Analysts often compare the situation with that of the US, a country of similar land area but car saturated. America has a population of just over 300m and about 220m family cars on the road, says Ray Zhang, chief executive of Shanghai-based rental company eHi Car Service. US car ownership is more than 70 per cent. China has nearly 1.4bn people, Mr Zhang says, about 70m family cars on the road, and car ownership of 4 to 5 per cent. If ownership rates were to approach America’s, he says, that would mean 900m to 1bn cars on the road. However, says Mr Zhang, “We think 200m is the maximum the country can accommodate and support.”
LUXURY SECTOR
China’s chauffeured classes define the design of premium models worldwide
Last year Mercedes-Benz flew groups of 100 Chinese customers to Germany and Los Angeles to offer feedback on the exterior finish and interior features of cars including its S-Class luxury saloon, which hits showrooms in 2013. In particular, they were interested in opinions on the back seat.
China is Mercedes’ third-largest market after Germany and the US, but its biggest for the S-Class, the top-of-the-range flagship model. And more than half of the car’s Chinese customers ride behind a driver.
“The back seat has to be reclining – this is very important,” says Klaus Maier, head of Mercedes in China. “It is also important to have opportunities to work in the back – connections for the PC, and space to put things in.”
As demand for premium cars rockets in China, where there is a preference for the biggest and most expensive models, the country’s customers are determining the look, feel and features of German carmakers’ products, whether sold in Beijing or Berlin.
Mercedes’ unit sales in mainland China rose by 115 per cent last year, and 74 per cent last month. The brand’s parent company, Daimler, is building an engine plant in China – the first in its 125-year history to be built outside Germany, and part of a €3bn ($4.3bn) investment in the country.
Volkswagen’s Audi marque, after sending members of the design team to California and China to study prospective customers, introduced a climate-controlled cup-holder in its Q5 crossover vehicle. It did this in part because of Chinese consumers’ preference for toting around tea.
BMW, the industry’s top-selling luxury producer, generated 39 per cent of its fourth-quarter operating profit of €1.7bn in China, Nomura estimates. Perhaps aptly – given BMW’s appreciative customers and its growing profits in China – the name by which the brand is known in Mandarin, bao ma, means “treasure horse”.
Chinese tastes are making the biggest impact on car design in the premium segment, where because of their powerful brands and the relatively small volumes sold, German makers tend to produce models that are almost identical around the world.
However, China’s car boom is shaping some mass-market models, too. When General Motors designed Buick’s new LaCrosse saloon, the brand – popular in China – produced a roomy, plush rear-seat space primarily with that market in mind.
As China’s weight in world car sales continues to grow, analysts say, it could have a more profound impact, not only on the fit and finish of models but also on the core technology that makes them run.
China’s energy and environmental challenges could drive demand for electric cars, analysts say. Conditions on its congested roads will accelerate the industry’s shift from powerful engines to smaller, more efficient ones.
“A car for the autobahn doesn’t need to be engineered to do the same here,” says industry analyst Bill Russo, head of Beijing’s Synergistics automotive consultancy. “It will never go up to 200km per hour.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011.
Leveraging the Rapidly Emerging Markets for Global Competitive Advantage

3.17.2011
China Automotive ‘‘Indigenous Brands’’ Policy Well Underway, Hard To Challenge
3.15.2011
Japan Adds to Global Economy Woes
By PATRICK BARTA, YOSHIO TAKAHASHI and BOB DAVIS
Deepening economic damage in tsunami-wracked Japan is threatening to derail the world's third-largest economy, adding yet another source of instability to a global economy that's already grappling with troubles in the Middle East and higher prices for oil and food.
Bad news proliferated in Japan and across Asia on Tuesday, as officials struggled to contain damage at the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant that has suffered problems in four of its six reactors since Friday's massive earthquake and tsunami. Although officials appeared to have regained some control by late in the day, panic had already spread to regional markets, leaving many economists and companies less certain Japan would recover from the disaster as quickly as they had hoped.
Japanese auto makers and other factories extended closures for several more days at least, potentially imperiling deliveries of everything from Prius hybrid cars to the flash chips that go into iPhones and iPads. Taiwan's EVA Airways said it will cancel 56 flights between Japan and Taiwan, including some through the end of June—and saw its share price nosedive 6.9%.
Tens of thousands of tourists have canceled trips to and from Japan, while regional rubber-industry leaders called a special meeting likely to be held later this week to try to arrest a sharp drop in rubber prices amid expectations of weaker demand in Japan.
Markets fell across Asia, led by an 11% drop of Tokyo shares following a 6.2% fall Monday, the worst performance of the Nikkei since its Oct. 16, 2008, drop of 11.4% during the global financial crisis. Some $364 billion of investor wealth, or 9.4% of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's market capitalization, was wiped out, with begin declines in shares of Tokyo Electric PowerCo., or Tepco, which dropped 25%, and Toshiba Corp., which fell 20%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index tumbled 2.9%, and stocks also fell in China, Australia, Taiwan and South Korea, among others.
Economists stressed that if Japanese officials are able to bring its nuclear problems under control, it should help the country move more quickly into full recovery mode, lifting some of the worries. Growth overall is still expected to be strong in Asia this year, though a number of analysts have said in recent days they may have to ratchet down their forecasts as headwinds multiply.
Either way, analysts were already growing more worried about the global economy, which has moved forward in recent months mainly on momentum from Asia's booming economies, many of which are deeply reliant on Japanese trade and investment. Rising prices for food and oil and rising tensions in the Middle East have driven much of the worry.
Tuesday's problems at Japan's nuclear facilities have only added to the uncertainty. The normal pattern for countries that suffer disasters is for their economies to undergo temporary slowdowns, as production seizes up, followed by a rebound a few months later once reconstruction spending takes hold. Economists in recent days had been saying they expected Japan to post weaker growth and possibly a contraction in the next one to two quarters but then recover quickly at the end of the year, but now that may be changing.
"What [people] are worried about is the potential from the nuclear power plant, and that can have very different implications," said Changyong Rhee, the chief economist at the Asian Development Bank in Manila, though he said he still thought Asian companies had enough flexibility to adjust to most issues japan could face.
Part of the problem is that the full scale of the damage—and most importantly, how long auto plants and other key production centers will be offline —is still unknown.
Even though serious damage was limited to a few areas, Japan's problems are nationwide because supplier logistics have been severely dislocated by restrictions on using highways for freight, as well as unpredictable power cuts that make operations planning extremely difficult. Meanwhile, the shadow of the ongoing nuclear crisis is making many companies reluctant to ask staff to report for work until the situation clears.
Underscoring the nationwide reach of the problem, Mazda Motor Corp. on Tuesday said it's suspending all domestic plant operations until March 20, even though it's based in Hiroshima, with most of its plant in the west of the country.
Honda Motor Co. has also closed plants in Japan until Sunday while Nissan Motor Co. has four plants shut until Wednesday and another two until Friday. Toyota Motor Co., the world's biggest auto maker by sales, has so far only confirmed closures from Monday of this week through Wednesday, putting the level of vehicle production lost at 40,000. But if it falls in line with peers, and suspends production for the rest of the week, it could lose roughly 60,000 vehicles out of regular monthly production of about 250,000 vehicles.
One of the biggest headaches for plant managers—the rolling power cuts —may last through the end of April, according to utility company Tepco.
Some economists and companies continued to see silver linings in the disaster, however tragic it was. Executives at India's Essar Steel Ltd. and state-run Steel Authority of India Ltd. said Tuesday they expect exports of finished steel to Japan to climb in the coming months as the country rebuilds and owners of wooden buildings along Japan's coastline replace them with sturdier structures. Thailand's Thai Union Frozen Products PCL, the world's biggest canned-tuna producer by sales, said Tuesday it expects increased sales to Japan as the country looks for alternative food sources following damage to areas with seafood processing.
In an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, Bank of Thailand Gov. Prasarn Trairatvorakul said he didn't think Thailand would suffer any significant impact from Japan's disaster and might even benefit long-term, as Japanese companies push to further diversify their manufacturing bases overseas.
But many other companies are experiencing serious pain. Consider Eita Electric, a Malaysian company that supplies circuit breakers and other products for high-rise buildings, with many of the components manufactured at two factories in Japan. Two consignments valued at $200,000 are held up indefinitely because of transportation holdups and problems at Japan's Yokohama port, said Y . T. Chong, the company's managing director. Future orders will also likely be affected, he said, because production at the factories has stopped due to power shortages.
"My business will be badly affected," he said. "I cannot source this from any other country because these items are sold under a well-known Japanese brand, and therefore it has to come from Japan. There is nothing much we can do."
Tetsuya Wakuda, a Japanese-Australian celebrity chef with restaurants in Sydney and Singapore, including one at Singapore's glitzy Marina Bay Sands entertainment complex, said the disaster has disrupted many of his suppliers and that some high-grade seafood typically sourced from Japan will likely need to be acquired from Australia and New Zealand.
"It's devastating for all our suppliers because a lot of Japanese seafood comes from the eastern coast, which is all destroyed," Mr Wakuda said. "This is not going to come back for weeks, months or even a year," with waters off the Sanriku coast, which is famous for its abalone and sea urchin, unfit for fishing at present.
The Japanese disaster is bound to make corporate executives world-wide rethink their contingency planning and their vulnerability to shocks from overseas. That has a certain poignancy given that Japanese car makers pioneered the concept of "just-in-time" manufacturing, in which plants stock a minimum of inventory and rely on global transportation and communications to deliver what is necessary on a tight schedule. Now those car makers, and others that copied the Japanese methods, must cope with lost production from the Japanese plants.
In China, auto plants typically have a week of imported Japanese parts on hand and another two to three weeks worth of parts on ships heading toward Chinese ports. If Japan can gets its auto factories back into production quickly, any disruption should be minimal, especially since the Japanese car makers may be able to make up lost production by running more shifts.
But a longer shutdown is bound to have deeper consequences. In the auto industry, Japanese manufacturers rely on their home factories to produce hybrid cars and batteries, electronic control systems and high-end automobile entertainment systems, says Bill Russo, president of Synergistics Ltd., a Beijing auto consulting firm. Some of those components are sold to auto competitors too.
Contingency plans rarely provide back-up for every part a company makes or needs, he said. Instead, the company figures out how to make do with lost production—for instance, building cars without the fanciest entertainment systems included, or building fewer hybrids than planned.
In China, the International Business Daily, the Commerce Ministry's paper, reported that Chinese firms would have to delay the launch of new products because they may not be able to import needed electronic components from Japan.
The disaster is also likely to give a further push to China's already aggressive plans to increase the sopistication of the products it can make domestically, so it's less reliant on foreign firms.
Liu Xiaojun, a manager with Shanghai Lunsure Technology, an electronics assembly company, said his firm buys components solely from Chinese firms because they are less expensive than imports and because Chinese quality is improving. He noted that the Chinese government has been urging electronics firms to produce higher-end parts, including silicon chips, domestically.
—Samuel Holmes, Celine Fernandez, Yoli Zhang, Hui Leng Tan, Piyarat Setthasiriphaiboon, Kenneth Maxwell, Leigh Murray and Phisanu Phromchanya contributed to this article.Click here to read the original article at wsj.com
3.09.2011
China Car Sales Growth at Slowest Pace in More Than Two Years
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China’s passenger-car sales growth in February fell to the slowest in more than two years after the government ended vehicle-buying incentives and a week-long national holiday stymied demand.
Wholesales of passenger cars including multipurpose and sport-utility vehicles increased 2.6 percent from a year earlier to 967,200 units last month, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said today in a statement. This is the slowest pace of growth since January 2009, when car purchases fell 7.8 percent.
Automakers including General Motors Co. (GM), Toyota Motor Corp., and Honda Motor Co. have seen their deliveries slow this month after China reinstated a 10 percent sales-tax rate on small cars this year and phased out subsidies for vehicle trade- ins in rural areas. Last year, overall auto sales surged 32 percent to a record 18.06 million, helping China stay the world’s largest vehicle market for the second year running.
The reduced incentives and timing of China’s Lunar New Year holidays contributed to the slowdown, according to industry analysts at Booz & Co. and Nomura Holdings Inc.
“‘Car buying peaks just before the holiday, as Chinese consumers like to show off their shiny new autos to their families over the holiday,’’ said Bill Russo, a Beijing-based senior adviser at Booz. The holidays began on Feb. 3 this year, primarily boosting January sales, compared with Feb. 14 in 2010, which aided that month’s sales, he said.
Total vehicle sales gained 4.6 percent in February to 1.27 million, the auto association said.
Government Incentives
The removal of government buying incentives in January has weakened demand in 2011 as customers brought forward purchases to the end of last year, said Yankun Hou, an analyst at Nomura in Hong Kong. Hou has forecast passenger vehicle sales growth of about 13 percent this year.
GM, China’s largest foreign automaker, reported slower sales growth last month in the country as deliveries by its local minivan venture declined, the company said March 2. The Detroit-based automaker sold 184,498 vehicles in February, an increase of 6 percent, it said in an e-mailed statement. That was down from 22 percent in January.
Honda’s China vehicle sales fell 6.5 percent last month from a year earlier to 41,348 units, the automaker, Japan’s third largest, said this week.
Auto sales will expand between 10 percent and 15 percent this year, the manufacturer’s association estimated in January. China’s economy grew 10.3 percent in 2010, the fastest pace in three years, as industrial production and retail sales picked up, the statistics bureau said Jan 20. The country has grown at an average 11.4 percent pace over the past five years.
BYD Co., the Chinese automaker backed by Warren Buffett, said March 4 that its sales slumped 22 percent during February to 26,521 vehicles.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kae Inoue at kinoue@bloomberg.net