10.24.2009

GM Agrees Chinese Purchase of Hummer

China Radio International, October 20, 2009


General Motors has agreed to sell its premium all-terrain Hummer brand to Chinese firm Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery for a rumored 150 million US dollars. Should the deal go ahead it would represent China's first fully-fledged acquisition of an auto brand in the wake of the global economic crisis. But some experts have doubts the Chinese authorities will approve the deal and even if they do whether the Chinese company is able to revitalize the troubled auto brand. Yingying has more.

Reporter:

Under the proposed terms of the agreement, Tengzhong will take ownership of the Hummer brand, trademark, as well as specific intellectual property license rights necessary for the manufacture of Hummer vehicles. The Chinese company will also assume the existing dealer agreements relating to Hummer's dealership network.

Tengzhong would purchase Hummer through an investment entity, in which it will hold an 80 percent stake. A private entrepreneur will hold the remaining 20 percent stake. However, the deal needs approval from the US and Chinese governments.

Bill Russo, president of Hong Kong based Synergistics Limited, an international business development advisory firm, says the Chinese company is limited in the ways it can help the US brand.

"What Hummer needs to do is to become well established in the market. I doubt the Sichuan Tengzhong can do much to help them in the auto side. I think it does more to help Tengzhong become more recognizable as a company. It does not provide them with excess technology; they are just going to help them in their core products areas. I do not think it helps with establishing Tengzhong as an automotive company because there is not much can be transferred from Hummer."

Hummer would contract vehicle manufacturing, key components and business services from GM during a defined transitional time period. GM's US assembly plants would continue to assemble the Hummer H3, H3T and H2 until June 2011 with an optional one year extension until June 2012.

What's more, Hummer will continue to be managed by members of its existing leadership team.

Bill Russo says the US government could be more likely to approve the deal than their Chinese counterparts.

"I think the US government will welcome the acquisition. Hummer as a brand really does not fit GM's product portfolio any longer and it does not really fit in the market GM is trying to serve. From the standpoint of the Chinese government, they have a policy this year to encourage people to purchase smaller and more fuel-efficient cars. I really don't understand how (the purchase of Hummer) fits the interest of this market."

Some analysts say the major obstacle for the deal could be Tengzhong's lack of experience in producing passenger vehicles.

Yet Yang Yi, chief executive officer of Tengzhong, who is confident the deal will go ahead, believes that the new Hummer is likely to change its gas-guzzling image and create the next generation of more fuel-efficient vehicles.

According to a spokesman with China's commerce ministry last week, the government has not yet received an application from Tengzhong for the acquisition of Hummer.

While a Tengzhong spokeswoman has said earlier that the transaction was expected to be finalised late this year or early next year.

In recent years, many Chinese companies have showed an ambition to acquire foreign auto brands and stage their presence in the global auto market. But the question remains as to whether Chinese companies such as Tengzhong would be able to revitalize troubled auto brands, especially given their limited experience running global operations.

Bill Russo, president of Synergistics Limited says acquiring foreign car brands can be a commercial minefield.

"The risks are significant. One is the financial risk. These companies are not for sale because they are successful. They are for sale because they are under financial stress. So the expectation on the part of foreign companies is only that Chinese companies continue to fund their operations. Another significant risk is usually when a company is acquired, there is a risk of management."

General Motors is in the process of selling and winding up a number of brands as it looks to reorganize after emerging from bankruptcy protection in July.

Hummers were originally built as military off-road vehicles. GM bought the Hummer brand ten years ago, but sales have suffered recently as the gas-guzzling performance and military image have become less popular.

For Biz China, I'm Yingying.



10.11.2009

Luxury Car Change: Small Is "In"

Southern Weekly (南方周末), September 29, 2009

Article highlighting the trend of luxury brands towards smaller vehicles and low-displacement engines, and its impact on the competitive landscape in China. Includes comments from Bill Russo (罗威).

Click here to view article published in Southern Weekly (Chinese text only)

10.01.2009

World Ecological Forum Gotland Summit

Gotland, Sweden, July 1-2, 2010

Note: Bill Russo has been invited to speak at the 2010 World Ecological Forum on the automotive industry and China's increasingly important role in driving the electrification of transportation.

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Exploring paradigm shifting ideas for particular business applications is something some of our sponsors and other member partners have already started.


9.29.2009

TREND #6: Hyper-Competition Across the China Automotive Market Segments

September 30, 2009

by Bill Russo

The sixth of the Eight Overarching China Automotive Trends That Are Revolutionizing the Auto Industry concerns the rapidly changing structure of the China automotive market and its impact on the competitive landscape. While many Vehicle Manufacturers have reported robust sales in 2009, what may not be understood or appreciated among those who are observing the growth in sales is that this is a market where quantity of sales should not be confused with quality of sales. The China market is now experiencing what many companies doing business in the United States have come to understand for many years: hyper-competition.

With Tremendous Growth Comes Hyper-Competition

As described in detail in Trend #2: Global Redistribution of Assets by Non-Chinese Companies to Capture China Market Growth, China’s vehicle market has more than doubled in size from 4.56 million units (in 2003) to 9.67 million units (in 2008). Global Insight has forecasted that the Asian markets represent the largest growth potential in the global auto industry - with a combined 4.7% compound annual growth rate over the next 10 years (compared with 2.9% in NAFTA). Within Asia, 54% of that growth is expected to come from China. With the promise of tremendous growth, many international firms as well as Chinese firms are encouraged to allocate resources to seize the opportunities presented by the Chinese market.

The high popularity of the April 2009 Shanghai Motor Show further illustrated the attraction of the Chinese market. The show stand covering 170,000 meters attracted over 660,000 visitors with over 900 models on display, over 300 of which were imports. Over 1500 exhibitors were present at this year’s show.

Early-movers in the China market such as Volkswagen and General Motors have enjoyed significant profit margins by occupying mid-size, full-size and MPV segments without a great deal of competition. In such a market environment, profits could be made on products such as the VW Santana and the Buick GL8 minivan – older technologies that dominated their segments with good margins. However, today’s China market no longer offers such an easy road to profitability. Virtually every major vehicle manufacturer is now present in the China market. A recent J.D. Power & Associates study has reported that many of the cars sold in 2009 were in low-end segments that are eligible for tax incentives and that many of these cars earn the manufacturers as little as $100 each.

However, hyper-competition actually began several years ago, with the onset of a phenomenon called “net negative pricing”. In fact, Global Insight reported the following net segment price declines over a four-year period (starting 2004):

  • Micro (A-segment): 20.4%
  • Small (B-segment): 27%
  • Compact (C-segment): 32.5%
  • Standard (D-segment): 26.3%
  • Luxury (E/F-segment): 12.1%

The future outlook is that local brands and international brands will install more capacity in China, placing even more pressure on pricing in order to increase capacity utilization. Weak brands and older models will become the first casualties as market and competitive forces squeeze them out. The competitive battle can only be won with strong brands and contemporary models that can be delivered profitably to savvy Chinese consumers with choices that demand a competitive price.

The Problem of Overcapacity

It was reported recently in the article “China urges automakers to prevent overcapacity”, that Chen Bin of the National Development and Reform Commission has encouraged automakers to “keep their heads cool” to prevent overcapacity. With an expectation of a 28% jump in vehicle sales in 2009, many automakers are announcing aggressive expansion plans. With sales now expected to easily surpass 12 million units this year, there is every cause to be bullish about China’s future automotive market. However, China’s industry planning agency has good cause for concern as there are already many weak vehicle manufacturers in the market today, and it is unclear whether the government will extend the tax cuts and rural subsidies that expire at the end of this year into 2010.

Beyond simply adding capacity to produce more of the same type of cars, there is evidence that the competitive structure of the market will take on a new dimension in the near future. For the early stages of the development of the China market, the multi-national brands and Chinese brands were for the most part not competing directly with each other. Foreign brands enjoyed a tremendously high share of the passenger vehicle market, with overall share of more than 70% as recently as last year. Until recently, China's automotive market was largely driven by the more affluent Chinese consumers who tended to shop for foreign branded products. However, this year’s sales jump has been largely driven by first-time consumers entering the market to buy the low-displacement micro-and small-segment cars that are supported by the tax policies. These segments are for the most part served by the Chinese local brand manufacturers.

This is about to change. Attracted by the tremendous growth of these segments, many multi-national brands are expanding their product portfolio into these smaller segments. Examples include the Ford Focus Hatchback, Chevrolet Cruze, PSA 207 Hatchback, Hyundai i30, VW Polo Sport, Toyota Yaris, smart Fortwo, and Kia Soul.

Attracted by the desire to raise their brand image, and achieve higher margins, the Chinese carmakers are also expanding their product portfolio – into larger segments. Examples include Chery’s Rely V5, Riich G6, Dongfeng’s S30, BYD’s S8 and M6, Geely’s Dihao and Yinglun and the Brilliance Zunchi.

While top-down advice to cool things down may be helpful, it is rare to see any organization unilaterally opt for conservatism in the face of optimistic market forecasts. Since China has become the most attractive area to invest for growth, it seems that Chinese consumers will be enjoying even more choices and even more attractive pricing as a result of hyper-competition.

These developments will have significant implications on the global auto industry, as the installed capacity in China will increasingly be used to serve to serve demand beyond China's borders. Structurally, many vehicle manufacturers will either learn to profit in this hyper-competitive market, or will find their ability to compete here, and thereby elsewhere, compromised.

In the next posting in this series, I will describe the trend "China Vehicle Manufacturers Push to Build Brand Equity".

Click here to view the article published in GLG News

Click here to view the article published in gasgoo.com's China Automotive News

9.28.2009

Re-Publications of "The Eight Overarching China Automotive Trends That Are Revolutionizing the Auto Industry"

GlobalAutoIndustry.com ASIAtalk eJournal, September 2009
GlobalAutoIndustry.com CHINAtalk eJournal, October 2009
China Automotive News, September 29, 2009

In my recent article China's Next Revolution: Transforming the Global Automotive Industry, I brought forth the argument that some readers have found controversial: that China is the catalyst behind the restructuring of the global automotive industry. Some believe the automotive industry is undergoing change because of the global economic crisis, which has little to do with China. Still others believe that the restructuring is a result of mismanagement and that major OEMs can be restored to greatness with a change to new leadership possessing sufficient vision to adopt a new course.
However, I believe we are witnessing the early stages of an economic revolution: a shift of the global center of gravity of economic strength towards the east, which will result in profound changes in numerous industries. As an economic bellwether, the automotive industry captures a great deal of interest. However, it is apparent that there are many who still do not comprehend that the changes are in fact fundamental and irreversible.




9.20.2009

China will face high risk to automobile quality in the future

Southern Weekly (南方周末), September 20, 2009

中国未来将面临汽车质量的高风险,本土厂商应明确自己的战略定位

刘丁 北京

针对最近频发的召回事件,本报专访Synergistics Limited公司的创始人及总裁,前克莱斯勒亚洲区总裁罗威(Bill Russo)先生。

《南方周末》:您如何理解最近中国市场上的大规模频繁召回事件?
罗威:当汽车企业开始追求市场份额时,很多坏的事情就发生了,他们开始追求投资、追求时间表。

丰田过去历史上一直是关注质量,丰田的产品曾经是高质量、高价值的品牌,但最近,5-10年之间,他们变得更贪婪,他们提出的目标是到2010年达到50%的国际市场份额,他们开始追求利润、财务表现和规模,而不是像原来一样追求质量,他们成长的太快了,所以发生了大量召回的事情。丰田的问题,就是他们离开了他们的核心原则。

而目前,所有在中国的汽车公司都在追求市场份额,这就是问题所在,中国的市场竞争将越来越激烈,而汽车公司在竞争下的则变得贪婪和短视,虽然谁都不想自己的产品有问题,但如果你盯住的战略是高增长,市场份额和利润,那么小心了,你将很容易偏离你原来的高质量原则。

况且,中国的游戏规则也不同,你必须与本土企业合资,所以关系也很复杂。所以,出问题的风险也远远高于其他地方。

你为之奋斗了一个世纪,你的重质量的名气,但毁掉它只需要几秒钟。市场就是这样,你过去一个世纪在市场上口碑不好,那即便你今天很努力去追求质量,市场也不信,重建需要很长的时间。

《南方周末》:中国本土汽车企业怎么应对?

罗威:世界汽车工业史上,汽车公司有三种不同的战略方向:1、低价山寨。2、以消费者体验为中心。3、技术和特有品牌。

低价是就是给予价钱够低的产品,中国目前以及韩国的发展模式便是如此。但这种类型已经过时了,因为市场越来越成熟;技术和特有的,就是欧洲和美国克莱斯勒,宝马奔驰,他们有自己特有的车型,与众不同的,让人觉得是唯一的,别人无法模仿而得到价值;而以消费者体验为中心,就是丰田这种,重质量。

但丰田后来偏离了原来的路,而在了不同的方向上徘徊。如果你太短视,太追求利润,就会不重成本,只要卖出去就行,追求产销量。

但丰田即便在今天,仍然是最好的榜样,如何满足消费者的心理和质量控制。他们的模式依然是世界上最棒的模式之一。我们应该看,丰田如何处理危机。最好的办法,是迅速反应,为错误承担责任,即便会影响今天的利润,但对于长期是至关重要的。

中国将成为世界汽车工业的目标,因为他增长的如此之快,所有的企业都要过来,所以,中国企业如何与世界的强手们竞争,将是非常有趣的事情。以后会越来越艰难,即便它增长很快,但依然会越来越艰难,因为越来越多的企业来到这里。中国汽车企业应当尽早找到他们自己的战略定位。

Click here to see the original interview posted by Southern Weekly


9.17.2009

丰田危机 (Toyota Deals With China's Largest Recall)

Southern Weekly(南方周末) , September 16, 2009

丰田公司曾经以其发明的丰田生产方式,获得了质量冠军的美誉,并因此打败了美国底特律的强大对手。但现在,它却一再地被汽车质量问题所困扰。这一切,都发生在它日渐身躯庞大、争夺世界第一的路途中

今年8月,全球第一大汽车制造商丰田公司,宣布在中国召回68万余辆汽车,原因是由同一供货商提供的装配在卡罗拉、凯美瑞等流行车型上的自动窗开关部件存在安全隐患。

这是中国市场上最大规模的一次召回事件。“毫无疑问,除了要为之付出的经济成本,以重视质量而著称的丰田品牌,将因此蒙受巨大损失。” 克莱斯勒汽车公司前副总裁罗威对南方周末记者评论。