10.28.2009

Speeding Up

China Economic Review, November 1, 2009

Car sales in China are on a roll. A total of 1.33 million units were cleared in September, making it seven months in a row that sales have topped 1.1 million. China is now comfortably the number one car market worldwide. Sales for the first nine months of the year reached 9.66 million vehicles, compared with 7.8 million in the US, the world number two.

Analysts say the sales are being driven by Beijing's subsidy plan that halved taxes on cars with engine displacements of 1.6 liters or less - these small cars made up 70% of September sales. The program is scheduled to end on December 31 and there has been no official news on whether it will be extended.

"As long as the government doesn't make a clear indication, I think lots of consumers are going to rush to buy small cars by the end of year," said John Zeng, senior market analyst for Asia automotive research at IHS Global Insight.

Even cars with displacements larger than 1.6 liters are seeing strong sales thanks to a rise in consumer confidence. However, success this year will have a downside - Zeng expects 2010 sales to be weak, with a growth rate of just 5%.

Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs has sufficient faith in the long-term strength of the market to invest US$250 million in local manufacturer Geely Automobile. Geely plans to use the money, which came via a Goldman-affiliated private equity fund, to expand its production facilities and to build up its brands.

Geely is also eyeing General Motors' Volvo unit. Klaus Paur, director of automotive research at TNS China, thinks a deal will happen once Geely has found the right fit for it in its portfolio.

Analysts are skeptical of another deal that was agreed to in October: Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery's US$150 million purchase of GM's Hummer brand. "It's not a surprise that they would see this as an opportunity, but Tengzhong as an organization is not experienced," said Bill Russo, managing director of Synergistics Limited, a consultancy. "It's going to be a very difficult task for them to step in and turn Hummer around."

Click here to view the article posted in China Economic Review

10.27.2009

TREND #7: Local Vehicle Manufacturer’s Push to Build Brand Equity

October 27, 2009
by Bill Russo
China opened its domestic market to foreign vehicle manufacturers in the 1980’s, starting with the first sino-foreign automotive joint venture between American Motors Corporation (AMC) and Beijing Automotive Industry Corporation (BAIC). Through the use of the joint venture form of cooperation, the government then hoped a domestic industry would emerge where the Chinese domestic companies would learn from their partners and eventually emerge as successful automotive companies.

In theory, the domestic companies would learn from their foreign counterparts the skills needed to manage a complex business, establish manufacturing and supply bases to produce vehicles and ultimately transfer critical technological development capacities in order build their own-branded products. While the China automotive market has indeed developed rapidly, it is very clear that the 25-year journey toward establishing independent automotive capabilities is still a work in process.

In fact, the model for development of China’s domestic automotive industry was also designed to facilitate development of China’s industrial base. Provincial governments, with the support of the central government, were encouraged to develop industrial bases to create investment opportunities and jobs in order to accelerate China’s economic development. However, as was noted in Trend #1: Policy-driven Consolidation of Chinese Vehicle Manufacturers, there are numerous structural problems in the China automotive industry that result from the highly fragmented landscape of licensed car manufacturers. The fact that that there are over 150 registered manufacturers is an outgrowth of a start-up phase for China’s auto sector. However, the highly fragmented industry that results from this creates enormous inefficiency for the management of critical assets.

This fragmentation also makes it very difficult to focus and allocate resources to the development of critical technologies as well as brands. This is an area of particular weakness for Chinese OEMs who have relied on their foreign partners to take the lead in the development and integration of key technologies. Foreign vehicle manufacturers, through their JVs have also lead the establishment of branded vehicle distribution networks. Chinese-branded vehicles have largely played the role of “bottom feeder” by selling a cheaper form of transportation to first-time consumers who are not as concerned over whether their product meets world-class standards.


The majority of Chinese consumers understand this quite well – which is the reason why foreign brands held a 66% share of the China market in 2008. The China government understands that in order to create a healthy industry, they must first raise the perception of “Made in China” cars in the minds of Chinese consumers. This is why there is a goal for Chinese OEMs to achieve a 50% share of domestic sales in 2010. The stated expectation is for the domestic manufacturer to introduce vehicles with their own brand trademark either through their existing joint ventures or other subsidiaries. We can therefore anticipate the following trends:


1. The government will likely require a foreign partner seeking to form a new JV to provide the support needed to introduce a Chinese local brand.


2. Domestic vehicle manufacturers will seek to improve brand image, enhance quality and target international expansion. Having enjoying rapid growth the China domestic market, several Chinese car companies including Chery, Great Wall and others have already started to export Chinese-manufactured vehicles to Australia, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asian countries. It stands to reason that less mature markets have demographics that lend themselves to new market entrants who compete primarily on price


3. Foreign vehicle manufacturers may actively participate in local brand development in order to expand their market reach and receive preferential treatment. Honda is in fact taking this approach and is investing RMB 2 billion to develop a local brand with Guangzhou Automotive through their joint venture.


To support the growth of local brands, the government in 2009 has reduced tax rates by 5% on the purchase of vehicles below 1.6L engine displacement, as well as fiscal subsidies to rural customers for vehicle replacement. These policies clearly favor the local brand manufacturers who tend to build small, compact cars with smaller engine displacements. Such policies have helped companies like BYD and Geely become the shining stars of China’s domestic market by offering competitively priced small cars which meet the quality requirements of Chinese consumers, many of whom are entering the market for the first time.


Brand Equity - With Chinese Characteristics


The capabilities of local Chinese OEMs have come a long way in a short time. Chinese firms will learn quickly as they grow their share of the domestic market. However, much work needs to be done to gain acceptance of the Chinese consumer of Chinese manufactured goods. This must be the first priority as it stands to reason that if it is difficult to convince a Chinese consumer, it will be even harder to convince a foreign consumer to accept a “Made in China” car. The fact is that with the proper attention to quality management discipline and with the transfer of critical know-how in the area of vehicle synthesis and development, it is indeed possible for Chinese firms to capture greater share of the domestic market, and eventually of the global markets.


While building equity in Chinese domestic brands is a tremendous challenge, there is a significant benefit of the joint venture approach taken in the development of the Chinese domestic auto industry. While learning from their global partners how to become global players is easier in theory than in practice, this approach has helped China establish a global supply base, with virtually all international auto parts companies now represented in China. By building and leveraging the capacities of such suppliers, and by selectively acquiring the assets of such suppliers, Chinese automakers are striving to build a more upscale image. Several examples were previously noted in Trend #3: Acquisition of Foreign Assets and Key Development Competencies by Chinese Companies.


Using this approach, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group has introduced several products and uniquely positioned brands, including Gleagle, London Taxi, Shanghai Maple, and Emgrand. New models such as the EC718 will be introduced under their new Emgrand brand at price points (starting at RMB 82,300) not previously achieved using the Geely brand. Convincing consumers to pay more for a relatively unknown brand will require a clear value proposition. Geely intends to increase their brand equity by sourcing from the world's leading auto parts suppliers, and in the process upgrade their image from a maker of "affordably priced cars" to one that delivers "safe, fuel efficient, and environmentally-friendly cars".

This year, Chery Automobile Company has taken a similar approach with the expansion of their brand portfolio to four brands: Riich, Rely, Karry and Chery. Such an approach carries significant risk, as the investment and resources needed to develop unique products and market separate brands is quite significant. Alfred Sloan’s pioneering concept of “different cars for different buyers” was the centerpiece of GM’s early 20th century expansion – and this was perfect for an American industry in its infancy. However, the cost of engineering unique products for as many brands as GM had in its portfolio became too great. GM’s reluctance to give up brands because of their historic value became a major financial burden. After GM’s sale of Hummer, Saab, Opel, Vauxhall and the wind-down of Pontiac, only 4 brands will remain: Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac and GMC Truck.


Geely’s Chairman Li Shufu apparently understands the brand equity challenge. He was recently quoted as saying “A brand is closely related to its cultural background. Isolated from that background, it is worthless,” stressing that it would not be very easy for Geely or any other Chinese carmaker to grow its brand portfolio. He noted: “A brand is like a person's name. Even if I change my name to Hu Jintao, I am not Hu Jintao.” �


A significant part of addressing this challenge will be to overcome the perception that “Made in China” is equivalent to “Cheap and Poor Quality”. However, great rewards accrue to those firms who understand how to adapt their positioning to the unmet needs of the local consumer. Successful firms find a way to take their brand value proposition and uniquely position it relative to competition in their target markets – creating a unique selling proposition (USP).


In the next article in this series, I will describe how "China’s Changing Demographics and Growing Tier 2 & 3 Demand" will continue to be the engine for the development of the China auto industry, as well as the growth of the global auto industry.


Click here to view article published in GLG News

Click here to view article published in gasgoo.com's China Automotive News


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10.26.2009

Re-Publications of China Auto Trend #2: Global Redistribution of Assets by Non-Chinese Companies to Capture China Market Growth

GlobalAutoIndustry.com ASIAtalk eJournal, October 2009

GlobalAutoIndustry.com CHINAtalk eJournal, November 2009
China Automotive News, October 14, 2009

As noted in the introduction to this series, I believe we are witnessing the early stages of an economic revolution: a shift of the global center of gravity of economic strength towards the east, which will result in profound changes in numerous industries. As an economic bellwether, the automotive industry captures a great deal of interest.




10.24.2009

GM Agrees Chinese Purchase of Hummer

China Radio International, October 20, 2009


General Motors has agreed to sell its premium all-terrain Hummer brand to Chinese firm Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery for a rumored 150 million US dollars. Should the deal go ahead it would represent China's first fully-fledged acquisition of an auto brand in the wake of the global economic crisis. But some experts have doubts the Chinese authorities will approve the deal and even if they do whether the Chinese company is able to revitalize the troubled auto brand. Yingying has more.

Reporter:

Under the proposed terms of the agreement, Tengzhong will take ownership of the Hummer brand, trademark, as well as specific intellectual property license rights necessary for the manufacture of Hummer vehicles. The Chinese company will also assume the existing dealer agreements relating to Hummer's dealership network.

Tengzhong would purchase Hummer through an investment entity, in which it will hold an 80 percent stake. A private entrepreneur will hold the remaining 20 percent stake. However, the deal needs approval from the US and Chinese governments.

Bill Russo, president of Hong Kong based Synergistics Limited, an international business development advisory firm, says the Chinese company is limited in the ways it can help the US brand.

"What Hummer needs to do is to become well established in the market. I doubt the Sichuan Tengzhong can do much to help them in the auto side. I think it does more to help Tengzhong become more recognizable as a company. It does not provide them with excess technology; they are just going to help them in their core products areas. I do not think it helps with establishing Tengzhong as an automotive company because there is not much can be transferred from Hummer."

Hummer would contract vehicle manufacturing, key components and business services from GM during a defined transitional time period. GM's US assembly plants would continue to assemble the Hummer H3, H3T and H2 until June 2011 with an optional one year extension until June 2012.

What's more, Hummer will continue to be managed by members of its existing leadership team.

Bill Russo says the US government could be more likely to approve the deal than their Chinese counterparts.

"I think the US government will welcome the acquisition. Hummer as a brand really does not fit GM's product portfolio any longer and it does not really fit in the market GM is trying to serve. From the standpoint of the Chinese government, they have a policy this year to encourage people to purchase smaller and more fuel-efficient cars. I really don't understand how (the purchase of Hummer) fits the interest of this market."

Some analysts say the major obstacle for the deal could be Tengzhong's lack of experience in producing passenger vehicles.

Yet Yang Yi, chief executive officer of Tengzhong, who is confident the deal will go ahead, believes that the new Hummer is likely to change its gas-guzzling image and create the next generation of more fuel-efficient vehicles.

According to a spokesman with China's commerce ministry last week, the government has not yet received an application from Tengzhong for the acquisition of Hummer.

While a Tengzhong spokeswoman has said earlier that the transaction was expected to be finalised late this year or early next year.

In recent years, many Chinese companies have showed an ambition to acquire foreign auto brands and stage their presence in the global auto market. But the question remains as to whether Chinese companies such as Tengzhong would be able to revitalize troubled auto brands, especially given their limited experience running global operations.

Bill Russo, president of Synergistics Limited says acquiring foreign car brands can be a commercial minefield.

"The risks are significant. One is the financial risk. These companies are not for sale because they are successful. They are for sale because they are under financial stress. So the expectation on the part of foreign companies is only that Chinese companies continue to fund their operations. Another significant risk is usually when a company is acquired, there is a risk of management."

General Motors is in the process of selling and winding up a number of brands as it looks to reorganize after emerging from bankruptcy protection in July.

Hummers were originally built as military off-road vehicles. GM bought the Hummer brand ten years ago, but sales have suffered recently as the gas-guzzling performance and military image have become less popular.

For Biz China, I'm Yingying.



10.11.2009

Luxury Car Change: Small Is "In"

Southern Weekly (南方周末), September 29, 2009

Article highlighting the trend of luxury brands towards smaller vehicles and low-displacement engines, and its impact on the competitive landscape in China. Includes comments from Bill Russo (罗威).

Click here to view article published in Southern Weekly (Chinese text only)

10.01.2009

World Ecological Forum Gotland Summit

Gotland, Sweden, July 1-2, 2010

Note: Bill Russo has been invited to speak at the 2010 World Ecological Forum on the automotive industry and China's increasingly important role in driving the electrification of transportation.

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Exploring paradigm shifting ideas for particular business applications is something some of our sponsors and other member partners have already started.


9.29.2009

TREND #6: Hyper-Competition Across the China Automotive Market Segments

September 30, 2009

by Bill Russo

The sixth of the Eight Overarching China Automotive Trends That Are Revolutionizing the Auto Industry concerns the rapidly changing structure of the China automotive market and its impact on the competitive landscape. While many Vehicle Manufacturers have reported robust sales in 2009, what may not be understood or appreciated among those who are observing the growth in sales is that this is a market where quantity of sales should not be confused with quality of sales. The China market is now experiencing what many companies doing business in the United States have come to understand for many years: hyper-competition.

With Tremendous Growth Comes Hyper-Competition

As described in detail in Trend #2: Global Redistribution of Assets by Non-Chinese Companies to Capture China Market Growth, China’s vehicle market has more than doubled in size from 4.56 million units (in 2003) to 9.67 million units (in 2008). Global Insight has forecasted that the Asian markets represent the largest growth potential in the global auto industry - with a combined 4.7% compound annual growth rate over the next 10 years (compared with 2.9% in NAFTA). Within Asia, 54% of that growth is expected to come from China. With the promise of tremendous growth, many international firms as well as Chinese firms are encouraged to allocate resources to seize the opportunities presented by the Chinese market.

The high popularity of the April 2009 Shanghai Motor Show further illustrated the attraction of the Chinese market. The show stand covering 170,000 meters attracted over 660,000 visitors with over 900 models on display, over 300 of which were imports. Over 1500 exhibitors were present at this year’s show.

Early-movers in the China market such as Volkswagen and General Motors have enjoyed significant profit margins by occupying mid-size, full-size and MPV segments without a great deal of competition. In such a market environment, profits could be made on products such as the VW Santana and the Buick GL8 minivan – older technologies that dominated their segments with good margins. However, today’s China market no longer offers such an easy road to profitability. Virtually every major vehicle manufacturer is now present in the China market. A recent J.D. Power & Associates study has reported that many of the cars sold in 2009 were in low-end segments that are eligible for tax incentives and that many of these cars earn the manufacturers as little as $100 each.

However, hyper-competition actually began several years ago, with the onset of a phenomenon called “net negative pricing”. In fact, Global Insight reported the following net segment price declines over a four-year period (starting 2004):

  • Micro (A-segment): 20.4%
  • Small (B-segment): 27%
  • Compact (C-segment): 32.5%
  • Standard (D-segment): 26.3%
  • Luxury (E/F-segment): 12.1%

The future outlook is that local brands and international brands will install more capacity in China, placing even more pressure on pricing in order to increase capacity utilization. Weak brands and older models will become the first casualties as market and competitive forces squeeze them out. The competitive battle can only be won with strong brands and contemporary models that can be delivered profitably to savvy Chinese consumers with choices that demand a competitive price.

The Problem of Overcapacity

It was reported recently in the article “China urges automakers to prevent overcapacity”, that Chen Bin of the National Development and Reform Commission has encouraged automakers to “keep their heads cool” to prevent overcapacity. With an expectation of a 28% jump in vehicle sales in 2009, many automakers are announcing aggressive expansion plans. With sales now expected to easily surpass 12 million units this year, there is every cause to be bullish about China’s future automotive market. However, China’s industry planning agency has good cause for concern as there are already many weak vehicle manufacturers in the market today, and it is unclear whether the government will extend the tax cuts and rural subsidies that expire at the end of this year into 2010.

Beyond simply adding capacity to produce more of the same type of cars, there is evidence that the competitive structure of the market will take on a new dimension in the near future. For the early stages of the development of the China market, the multi-national brands and Chinese brands were for the most part not competing directly with each other. Foreign brands enjoyed a tremendously high share of the passenger vehicle market, with overall share of more than 70% as recently as last year. Until recently, China's automotive market was largely driven by the more affluent Chinese consumers who tended to shop for foreign branded products. However, this year’s sales jump has been largely driven by first-time consumers entering the market to buy the low-displacement micro-and small-segment cars that are supported by the tax policies. These segments are for the most part served by the Chinese local brand manufacturers.

This is about to change. Attracted by the tremendous growth of these segments, many multi-national brands are expanding their product portfolio into these smaller segments. Examples include the Ford Focus Hatchback, Chevrolet Cruze, PSA 207 Hatchback, Hyundai i30, VW Polo Sport, Toyota Yaris, smart Fortwo, and Kia Soul.

Attracted by the desire to raise their brand image, and achieve higher margins, the Chinese carmakers are also expanding their product portfolio – into larger segments. Examples include Chery’s Rely V5, Riich G6, Dongfeng’s S30, BYD’s S8 and M6, Geely’s Dihao and Yinglun and the Brilliance Zunchi.

While top-down advice to cool things down may be helpful, it is rare to see any organization unilaterally opt for conservatism in the face of optimistic market forecasts. Since China has become the most attractive area to invest for growth, it seems that Chinese consumers will be enjoying even more choices and even more attractive pricing as a result of hyper-competition.

These developments will have significant implications on the global auto industry, as the installed capacity in China will increasingly be used to serve to serve demand beyond China's borders. Structurally, many vehicle manufacturers will either learn to profit in this hyper-competitive market, or will find their ability to compete here, and thereby elsewhere, compromised.

In the next posting in this series, I will describe the trend "China Vehicle Manufacturers Push to Build Brand Equity".

Click here to view the article published in GLG News

Click here to view the article published in gasgoo.com's China Automotive News